The only consolation is that the left got nearly 9% and green around 12%, making 21% in total. A shame they won't make it into the coalition though.
this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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Nazis won’t be part of the government after this result.
The conservatives have stated before the election that they won’t form a coalition with the far right AfD, the green party or the left party.
But with this result, they have a majority with the social democrats alone.
This will be a stable, centrist, boring government, typically German. Too little progress, but no catastrophe, and no threat to EU democracy, nor to international obligations or support for Ukraine. Neither party are Putin bootlickers either.
In the opposition, the greens and the left combined have more seats than the AfD. And 84% turnout is the highest since 1987!!!
Good old boring politics. Those were the days...
Inside Perspective here:
The former government colation (SPD, Greens, FDP) did not do a good enough job in the eyes of most germans. Mostly due to sabotage from the FDP who repeatedly blocked proposals and was the main reason for the breaking of the whole coaltition in the first place...
While the artivle claims that the CDU is expected to hold of against the AfD, the situation on the ground is different. Merz has just recently broken tabu by wanting to push an immigration restriction explicitly with votes from the AfD. So fears that the CDU is willing to form a government with them are substantiated by precedent.
This woule give them a majority, but could break the CDU internally. Not all of them like the AfD and Merz is barely human to begin with, especially unpopular with women for good reasons. Even a former chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepped in to explocitly criticise Merz for that move specifically.
Likely it will be CDU + SPD or CDU + SPD + Greens.
All of this is happening while a ban of the AfD is currently underway, but with this result that idea might become compromised.
Summary: Things turned out bad as expected, but as long as a CDU + AfD coalition is avoided, we still have a slim chance to not burn down the whole country.
is there a possibility that FDP falls under electoral threshold this time?
Possible, but it will be close. Will have to wait for the final count to know for sure, same with BSW
what impact would it have on division of seats for other parties?
From what I've seen if FDP and BSW don't make the threshold, it's more likely that CDU/CSA and SPD will have a majority with just the two of them.
With the need to reduce or eliminate reliance on the US for defense and an increasingly pugilistic Russia, perhaps the next move should be to start a massive scale-up of the German armed forces. This could also give a necessary boost to the economy.
While the scale-up is in progress, a non-aggression pact with Russia would be prudent. Germany could always turn on them when the time is right.
German non-aggression pact with Russia... where have I read that before?
Can we gets some thoughts on this, as an outsider I have no idea what this means for the political impacts this might have. Is this good or bad? I would say that the far-right doubling in votes doesnt seem like a good thing. Is the cdu and csu going to combat those far-right views or promote them?
The AfD had been polling at around 20% for a while. While this is ominous, them not having exceeded their expectations, despite Russia, China and Elon Musk pushing them hard is somewhat of a relief. If the BSW (former hard-leftists now making common cause with the far right, and also strongly Putinist) fall under the threshold because of voters going back to Die Linke (old-school hard-leftists who are not explicitly Putinist), and the Greens don’t collapse, those are also encouraging.
Germany’s looking to have a right-of-centre government, though they have ruled out going into coalition with the AfD, so what’s likely is probably a grand coalition (Großkoalition, or GroKo) bringing in other parties. The SPD as junior partner to the CDU would be unusual, and any left-of-centre parties supporting a right-wing government would risk alienating their supporters, so a CDU-led GroKo would be somewhat constrained in its decision-making. The other option would be a Swedish-style deal where the AfD are not officially in the government but provide support and have a say on policy, though Germany isn’t Sweden, and the far right are probably too toxic to countenance such an arrangement.
SPD has all but officially confirmed their willingness to negotiate a coalition. There FPD won't have enough votes, if any. And the greens are too far apart.
In the past CDU/CSU never managed to combat far-right views, just like any other conservative party/movement never managed to catch and mitigate far-right positions.
Yup. That's because most "moderate" conservatives fundamentally agree with far right positions, or at most don't disagree with them even though they might not be enthusiastic supporters
Outsider as well but it’s definitely bad. Will wait for others to provide more detail.
Friedrich MerzLeader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and candidate for chancellor
A former BlackRock Germany chair and amateur pilot, Merz is widely expected to become the next chancellor. He has promised to revitalise Germany’s stagnant economy, but his alignment with the far-right on migration has alienated potential coalition partners.
Here to have a more big picture https://archive.is/2025.02.22-145537/https://www.ft.com/content/6a6d45c1-b259-4976-98f6-8ea8347f832b
Voter turnout reaches 84%, highest since 1990
Voter turnout reached its highest level since German reunification in 1990, with exit poll data suggesting a turnout of 84 per cent.
The main coalition scenarios
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is widely expected to win the election with around 30 per cent of the vote.
Such a result would be only six percentage points higher than its historically worst performance in 2021. Anything below 30 per cent would be a disappointment for Merz, who has sought to contain the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to win one in five votes on Sunday.
Merz has expressed willingness to govern with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, while ruling out any coalition with the AfD. However, coalition negotiations could become complicated if smaller parties surpass the 5 per cent vote threshold and enter parliament.
A more fragmented Bundestag could make a two-party coalition unfeasible, potentially forcing Merz into a three-party alliance — a scenario reminiscent of the dysfunctional coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP).