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Context: This was a tweet thread from 2021:
https://xcancel.com/techreview/status/1415359221168709636
Here is the full article: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/14/1028461/solar-value-deflation-california-climate-change/
TL;DR: The issue is Capitalism.
I dream of humans one day building a Dyson swarm around the Sun and becoming a Kardashev type 2 civilization. It's a magnificent dream that we probably must one day accomplish or accept extinction.
But that is one serious problem with it. Unless it's managed democratically, if one psycho gets to control all of it, yeah, they could literally block out the Sun for anyone who won't pay for protection.
But we can start rejecting late stage capitalism. Unfortunately, that’s not what is happening people are voting for right wing nut jobs who will enforce capitalism through oppression, poverty, mass surveillance and militarized police.
They've got economist-brain and view everything as a money thing, which is fucked up and a problem.
But negative net demand (the thing "negative cost" is signaling) is a pain in the ass, because you either need to shut off the panels from the grid, find some very high-capacity and high-throughput storage, or blow out your power grid.
Like some hydroelectric dams in Germany get run backwards, pumping water back up behind the wall. I think there are pilot projects to pump air into old mines to build up a pressure buffer. Grid-scale batteries just aren't there yet.
Solar is good for things where the power demand is cumulative and relatively insensitive to variation over time (like, say, salt pond evaporation, but you don't actually need panels for that). It's also good for insolation-sensitive demand (like air conditioning).
Turns out distributed rooftop solar makes more sense given our current grid than big solar farms out in the desert (California built one, it was not a good use of money).
It's not great, but we need to bite the bullet and use fission+reprocessing in a big way for the near future.
Agreed. It's framed incorrectly, but the real problem is the "duck curve," the time disparity between peak generation and peak consumption. Pumped hydro, battery storage, electrolysis, and mechanical storage are all options, but each has its own constraints. Ultimately, though, it's an engineering problem with viable solutions. We just need the political will for the investment.
Distributed rooftop solar is the worst way to use our grid. It's designed to pump a lot of power from a single place to a lot of little places. The opposite doesn't work very well.
The solution is to not focus on solar by itself. Solar/wind/water/storage/long distance transmission need to be balanced with each other. Each has strengths and weaknesses that cover for the strengths and weaknesses of the others.
Distributed rooftop isn't supposed to be about feeding the larger grid so much as topping off local demand right when it's needed.
I'm kind of eccentric so I got a humongous array; even then at peak production I was running the A/C for 3-4 houses in my cul-de-sac other than my own. Most installations around where I live are like 1/4 of the size I put up and rarely feed much back.
And home-scale batteries are getting cheap enough that excess won't necessarily need to get fed into the grid anyway.
We have such a stupid fucking system for running society. We go out of our fucking way to block better options simply because they don't maximize profit. Not even "are actually unprofitable," just that they don't maximize profit.
A system of disturbing goods and services that can't handle negative value is not a system that should be maintained. Our collect pursuit as a species should be the abundance of these things, not the artificially managed scarcity of them.
Problems for Capitalism are Solutions for Humanity
See also: Solutions for capitalism are problems for humanity
Capitalism has always been the problem, nothing new here.
Capitalism makes abundance problematic.
Supply side Jesus says put your faith in the wisdom of the CEO.
I would post that passage from Grapes of Wrath about oranges. But copy-paste doesn't work on my phone
I got you.
The works of the roots of the vines, of the trees, must be destroyed to keep up the price, and this is the saddest, bitterest thing of all. Carloads of oranges dumped on the ground. The people came for miles to take the fruit, but this could not be. How would they buy oranges at twenty cents a dozen if they could drive out and pick them up? And men with hoses squirt kerosene on the oranges, and they are angry at the crime, angry at the people who have come to take the fruit. A million people hungry, needing the fruit- and kerosene sprayed over the golden mountains. And the smell of rot fills the country. Burn coffee for fuel in the ships. Burn corn to keep warm, it makes a hot fire. Dump potatoes in the rivers and place guards along the banks to keep the hungry people from fishing them out. Slaughter the pigs and bury them, and let the putrescence drip down into the earth.
There is a crime here that goes beyond denunciation. There is a sorrow here that weeping cannot symbolize. There is a failure here that topples all our success. The fertile earth, the straight tree rows, the sturdy trunks, and the ripe fruit. And children dying of pellagra must die because a profit cannot be taken from an orange. And coroners must fill in the certificate- died of malnutrition- because the food must rot, must be forced to rot. The people come with nets to fish for potatoes in the river, and the guards hold them back; they come in rattling cars to get the dumped oranges, but the kerosene is sprayed. And they stand still and watch the potatoes float by, listen to the screaming pigs being killed in a ditch and covered with quick-lime, watch the mountains of oranges slop down to a putrefying ooze; and in the eyes of the people there is the failure; and in the eyes of the hungry there is a growing wrath. In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage.
Thanks. I love this quote. But it pisses me off so bad
Slaughter the pigs and bury them, and let the putrescence drip down into the earth.
This reminds me of 2020 when they shut down slaughterhouses due to COVID. They killed hundreds of thousands (likely into the millions) of pigs using ventilation shutdown. These were not diseased pigs, it was simply to dispose of them while the slaughterhouses were shut down.
We live in a fundamentally sick society.
oh no the power is too cheap. God forbid our trillions of tax dollars go to something actually useful and good for the people oh well looks like we will get the F-47 instead and pay it to private military contracts 😂
The answer is batteries. And dismantling capitalism, but batteries first
Wasn't there a town in China that produced such a glut of surplus electricity that they didn't know what to do with it? And it was 100% solar?
I guess the biggest bottleneck for renewables is energy storage.
That's the common thought, but it rests on the assumption that demand cannot be manipulated.
Legacy generation incentivized overnight consumption, when the grid had excess production capacity it needed to unload. With solar, we need to reverse those incentives. If it is harder to produce power overnight, we can drive large industry (like steel mills and aluminum smelters) to switch from overnight operations to daytime consumption.
Overnight storage is something we do need, but it is not efficient, and the need for it should be avoided wherever possible.
Parking garages are usually full during the day, when solar is at its highest generation. In the near future, as EV adoption rises, parking garages need charging stations at every space, sucking up every "excess" watt on the grid.
Pretty much. Once we got that covered there is no excuse anymore.
It's basically solved. Sodium batteries are cheaper and much more durable than lithium batteries, and are currently being commercialized. Their only downside is that they are heavier, but that does not matter for grid-scale storage.
I remember reading about those. Sodium batteries are revolutionary. They don't need a rare earth mineral... sodium is friggen everywhere.
It's funny how capitalist apologists in this thread attack the format of a tweet and people not reading the actual article, when they clearly haven't read the original article.
Negative prices are only mentioned in passing, as a very rare phenomenon, while most of it is dedicated to value deflation of energy (mentioned 4 times), aka private sector investors not earning enough profits to justify expanding the grid. Basically a cautionary tale of leaving such a critical component of society up to a privatized market.
Negative prices are only mentioned in passing, as a very rare phenomenon
Negative prices are occurring more and more frequently. The cause is baseload generation: it can't be dialed back as quickly as solar increases during the day, and it can't be ramped up as fast as solar falls off in the evening. The baseload generators have to stay on line to meet overnight demand. Because they can't be adjusted fast enough to match the demand curve, they have to stay online during the day as well.
The immediate solution is to back down the baseload generators, and rely more on peaker plants, which can match the curve.
The longer term solution is to remove the incentives that drive overnight consumption. Stop incentivizing "off peak" consumption, and instead push large industrial consumers to daytime operation.