A decade ago, It was predicted that we would hit 1.5°C between 2050-2060, and even as recently as 2 years ago the prediction had moved forward to between 2030-2040.
The next decade or two are going to be very... interesting
this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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The IPCC calculations were always criticized for being overly optimistic. Anyone following this debate knew that we would hit 1.5 C sooner rather than later.
We are definitely going to hit 3 degrees in our lifetime, once the melting tundras release their methane store.
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what's worse is that it's actually 1.6 C
it says in the article here
Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850–1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July.
Yes but only for a couple of months, averaged over the whole year it's significantly lower than that. Probably still on track to hit the annual average of 1.5 sometime in the next 10-20 years. Still definitely a dire situation but not entirely out of left field based on the recent estimates.
The recent records have now lifted the year-to-date global temperature to the end of August to 1.35C above pre-industrial levels, just 0.01C behind 2016 — the current record holder
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Soooo 3 degrees bij 2050? We are so fucked.
Yeah, it’s honestly horrifying to see the lack of reaction around the world. If you live anywhere near the coast, you better get the fuck out or tell your kids to.
I'm already telling people to get out of Florida*. I expect multiple Katrina-level events over the next 15 years. "Florida refugees" is going to become a common phrase.
Orlando might be more likely to survive than Miami or Tampa, but do you really want to be in the city surrounded by devastation?
We, as humans, seem to have lost the ability to plan more than 20 years into the future. Florida is still building in areas that are going to be crushed, and the only reaction is from insurance companies.
We're not trying to prevent it. We're not building any kind of defenses or contingency plans. We're not encouraging people to move out. We're not preventing people from moving in. In fact, we're building new and encouraging people to move IN to Florida. It's full on head in sand.
look at their leadership. look at their voters. look at the short-term profit potential.
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I have kids. I am fucking livid that the assholes who pretend climate change isn't happening have decided to sacrifice their kids and mine on the altar of making a quick buck.
You can't eat money, assholes. And you can't bring it with you when you die. If the future is nothing but more and more severe weather to the point that civilization collapses under the strain, then I hope you live long enough to see it and are unable to hide from reality anymore.
They have the money and/or ignorance to continue hiding from reality
They think they do. No amount of money will protect a person from the collapse of a civilization. Never has, never will. Their plans are very much predicated on the assumption that markets will somehow magically continue to function after the general populace has lost all faith in them
What about the ultra rich that have built bunkers and have their security outfitted with locking, exploding collars to keep them in line?
I forget who, but some consultant said that they did a talk with a small group of the ultra wealthy that are doing this.
Edit: This is what I was referring to https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff
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We had a good run. Good luck to the next species to dominate the earth. May you avoid religious dogma, find an economic system that respects your natural environment, and a political system that respects the right to live a clean and healthy world.
Mosquitos are like “that species was delicious. I wonder what the next one will taste like”
we probably taste like shit.. they sit around the campfire and remember the good old days of fresh, free range Dino blood as far as the proboscis could poke.. not this Walmart meat they get now..
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We had a good run.
Did we, though?
We created a lot of value for the shareholders.
Depends on how you quantify it. We sure did make a lot of money, or at least the winners did.
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Realistically, extinction would be sweet relief compared to what is actually in store for humans with climate change. More likely that we hang around in smaller communities and death / suffering is even more widespread.
I mean realistically it's all going to hell sooner or later. You'll start with millions of climate refugees, closed borders, violence. Then climate wars (a wall with machine guns isn't going to stop people who have no other way to survive). And if a country with nukes (like India) finds itself uninhabitable then things are really going south. Next up you have a possible nuclear war and the end of humanity as we know it.
Sure, a small amount of humans might survive, but civilization will go down in chaos. Even areas that are inhabitable and have plenty of water will break down, because the local infrastructure can't support hundreds of thousands of refugees forcing their way in.
You’ll start with millions of climate refugees
Millions? If only.
I've seen estimates which say at least a billion by 2050:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/)
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Hope everyone enjoyed the coldest summer of the rest of their lives.
Is there anything i could/can do to make a difference?
Apart from the voting which is above all else, if you REALLY want to do something on an individual basis, you should reduce your meat or become a vegetarian. It seems that's what experts claim has the biggest impact. Apart from that, don't have children, or 2 at most.
There are other things you can do individually as well, like try using the car and AC less, and generally live more frugally.
But remember that 100 companies make up 71% of all human made carbon emissions. It's good to act locally, but we need global action to stop these companies and their supporters, that means voting for competent government.
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Please don't have children. Think about the life you're condemning them to.
this is sadly where my head is at.
Yup, my wife and I both want kids.
We're now pretty set on adoption.
Adoption is great!
If we don't have children because we care for our planet, we leave the world to those who don't care at all. Not sure if this is the right decision.
Same with atheism, religious people have more children, so the religious population is increasing, despite people deconverting.
Honestly, I haven't thought of it like that. I guess that's a decent point. But having more than 2 children, and you are part of the problem.
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Vote!
This, it's the only thing that really counts, we all need to pull together, the only way to do that, is to vote in politicians that actually give a shit.
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Honestly, I'm pretty sure the deficit we could create on an individual basis will just be used by companies instead, so I'm just gonna agree with the others on voting being the most effective method of making a difference.
As others have said, voting is important. But also I'd guess that direct action will play a large role in the next few decades.
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I'm sure it will all work out.
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
This year is now almost certain to become Earth's warmest on record after a hot July and August saw global temperatures reach the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850–1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July.
This upward swing should ensure 2023 becomes the new warmest year on record, an assessment shared by the Bureau of Meteorology's Senior Climatologist Blair Trewin.
"If current 2023 temperature anomalies are maintained, or increase, over the last four months of the year that would be sufficient for an annual record to be set," he said.
Major global climatological records have fallen at a rapid rate across the Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere, including:
"A large part of it is the removal of the cooling influence of La Niña which has been suppressing global temperatures over the last two to three years," Mr Trewin said.
The original article contains 531 words, the summary contains 167 words. Saved 69%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
I hope the corporation's and governments are ok poor loves.
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