this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2025

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Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win, Russia Is Starting to Lose (www.kyivpost.com)

submitted 1 week ago by Hubi@feddit.org to c/world@lemmy.world

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[–] nednobbins@lemm.ee 69 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.

https://youtu.be/IDRjughhXMg

He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.

If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."

[–] lorty@lemmy.ml 15 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Second this. I expected just more crazy ukrainian claims but it was actually a very grounded analysis of the situation.

[–] nednobbins@lemm.ee 9 points 6 days ago

He has a lot of videos like that. One of them is him in a room full of cadets. He goes through all the drone innovations that the Russian and Ukrainians have made in the past year and passes around a (disarmed) working €321 drone.

Then he points out that Austria still has the same expensive drone they had years ago and tells the cadets they should be a bit stressed about that.

[–] VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works 9 points 6 days ago (2 children)

He is okay and mostly factual. The tactical and operational analysis is good. However he has been wrong in the past, especially with his strategic interpretations and long term predictions.

The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win

That has been his refrain from the beginning. Yet Ukraine is still very much in the fight.

The we is also kind of ironic since Austria doesn't send any arms to Ukraine. The Austrian government and intelligence services as notoriously influenced by Russia. So take that in mind as well.

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[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 44 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (17 children)

Which is probably why they're trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.

Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia's main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.

[–] PolydoreSmith@lemmy.world 25 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 12 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They're diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren't totally sure about.

I'm going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they're politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don't know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can't keep this up the same way forever.

[–] DreamlandLividity@lemmy.world 8 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.

The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.

I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 7 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (4 children)

Yeah, that's one of my main sources too.

This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They've basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they'll get hyperinflation.

It's been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can't rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin's regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they're kind of in uncharted territory.

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[–] eugenevdebs@lemmy.dbzer0.com 28 points 6 days ago (19 children)

And god I hope they keep going and keep winning.

[–] FMEEE@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 points 6 days ago

Especially without American Support

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[–] Tattorack@lemmy.world 51 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I've heard this one before. As much as I'd like to believe it...

[–] doodledup@lemmy.world 32 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's propaganda.

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[–] uebquauntbez@lemmy.world 10 points 6 days ago (1 children)

USA's Mr. 47 will seriously take $5m from Mr. Putin to invite him to live in 'the land of the free'. And spend all of his ruble there.

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[–] rottingleaf@lemmy.world 4 points 5 days ago

Says Kyivpost.

Lines on the map seem to very slowly move in Russia's favor and Russia's "leadership" doesn't care about human cost as long as it allows further operation of their state.

It's their job to study strengths and weaknesses, so the quote is kinda stupid. Whether they are aware of anything can be said only retrospectively.

I just don't see where Russia is losing, I live in Russia and every year since 2022 people (sometimes not the dumbest kind, but with age comes naivete, and everyone is naive outside of their immediate profession) around me would say how Russian economy and\or defenses are going to crumble soon because of this war.

And before that since 2020 how they are going to crumble because of inability to adapt.

And before that because of sanctions, yes, what was called sanctions then was seriously talked about.

And before that because stealing elections is unpopular and generally immoral.

And before that because Putin will certainly lose an election, right?

It just doesn't work like that.

In Russia there's an expression "глубинный народ" (something like "depths' people" or "deep people", hard to translate), meaning some consistent deep popular feeling about something, it's usually ascribed barbaric feelings, like only caring how the rest of the world fears your nukes or hating everyone intelligent.

But it's also sometimes ascribed wisdom. For example, about prophets predicting the death of Russia's regime all by itself one day. Some of those prophets being children of the previous generation of that regime, supposedly separated from the current generation, but after becoming irrelevant coming back to their herd, like Sobchak.

Things are achieved when people work to achieve them, and with the amount of work they take, not the honest amount, not the amount those people can possibly do. Life is not honest.

Russia is not losing this war. It might reformat it into some kind of frozen conflict.

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