this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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Europe

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[–] ramble81@lemm.ee 6 points 48 minutes ago (2 children)

Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?

[–] Krik@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 18 minutes ago* (last edited 17 minutes ago)

Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.

I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-

[–] Wrufieotnak@feddit.org 8 points 38 minutes ago

Without divine intervention we will get Friedrich Merz as chancellor, the guy who just one month ago was fine with working together with the Neo Nazi party Afd.

So even if a coalition between CDU and Afd isn't happening, our chancellor is kinda Trump light. Mostly in it for himself and his industry buddies, no political experience and not used to doing compromises. And if somebody criticizes him, he cries like a little baby how unfair we are treating him for calling him a fucking fascist sympathizer.

So I expect a shitty time, but it looks like CDU and Afd can't rule alone and the party that is responsible for the whole fiasco, the liberal FDP, got kicked out of the parliament, so at least that is a silver lining.

[–] PonyOfWar@pawb.social 23 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.

[–] cows_are_underrated@feddit.org 11 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)

[–] PonyOfWar@pawb.social 7 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 16 minutes ago)

In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Believe me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.

[–] Vincent 3 points 3 hours ago (2 children)

Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?

[–] trollercoaster@sh.itjust.works 7 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don't, most of the time.

[–] PonyOfWar@pawb.social 5 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus SΓΆder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.

[–] alvvayson@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.

So they could be quite a strategic partner.

[–] PonyOfWar@pawb.social 3 points 1 hour ago

They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won't budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.

[–] You@feddit.org 2 points 1 hour ago

BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.

Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.

[–] bjoern_tantau@swg-empire.de 11 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won't get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don't go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.

[–] thoon 5 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

That's the goal, isnt it? Otherwise it will become another turmoil coalition

[–] bjoern_tantau@swg-empire.de 3 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I had some hope for a Union + Greens coalition but it doesn't look like that will be possible.

[–] Krik@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 13 minutes ago

SΓΆder pretty much declared the Greens their main enemy. I don't think there'll be a coalition of CDU/CSU and Green in the Bundestag until CxU declares a new main enemy (why not AfD?).

[–] tja@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Depending on which statistician you are asking they also might have just enough to get in

[–] FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zone 18 points 4 hours ago (3 children)

About what was expected.

Good news for Die Linke, bad news for the Greens, rest looks pretty similar to polling over the past week.

[–] cron@feddit.org 21 points 4 hours ago

The Greens lost the least votes from all the members of the last coalition. SPD and FDP have huge losses.

[–] ardorhb@discuss.tchncs.de 17 points 4 hours ago

Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.

[–] albert180@discuss.tchncs.de 13 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

The Greens did very well given the amount of shit thrown at them. SPD and FDP did worse

[–] FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I’m talking about compared to the polling averages.

[–] albert180@discuss.tchncs.de 6 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Even there I don't see them doing particularly bad. Also the ARD Exit Polls differ a bit from the ones from ZDF

The Graphic shows all polls averaged of the last 90 days

[–] albert180@discuss.tchncs.de 13 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I'm sorry my dear Europeans πŸ™ˆπŸ˜₯

[–] lnxtx 4 points 3 hours ago (2 children)

It's not that bad. There is a "firewall" around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn't possible.

Dude, that "firewall" was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU...

[–] devfuuu@lemmy.world 3 points 4 hours ago

No worries ppl. It can only get worse!