Tudsamfa

In der offenen Feldschlacht gefallen, o7 Soldat!

Worst possible outcome right now: BSW gets just enough votes to make it into parliament.

This results in an unstable government, since CDU/CSU and the expected partner SPD don't have enough seats, with no one willing to help form the government. New elections are called shortly after.

BSW can destroy parliament by simply existing (well, the voters who put us in this situation with so much AFD), and the only hope is that we throw out all their votes when they don't reach 5%. I don't think it's likely, but it is possible.

Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.

They won't be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don't have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.

There is a chance we simply won't have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:

• Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
• The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
• The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
• There won't be any stable government and a new election is called.
• Any Leftists in Government
• There won't be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.

Statistisch betrachtet wohnst du vermutlich in einer Großstadt, da ist das üblich. Als ich im Ruhrpott wählte, wurde mein Perso auch überprüft, wenn ich mich richtig erinnere.

Nun wohn ich aber im Dorf. Bei 3 Wahlhelfern und 1000 Einwohnern ist es eigentlich gegeben, dass man die Leute wiedererkennt oder zuordnen kann. Hätte nur nicht gedacht, dass das schon der Fall ist, wohn erst ein halbes Jahr hier.

I believe it is at least partially the same hatred for cosmetic surgery, just amped up because it's more impactful and they don't understand why being trans would make a difference.

It was socially acceptable to make fun of "fake" people for years. Everyone knew what a Botox face looked like. Celebrities are ridiculed for not ageing gracefully and clinging to an image with 21 surgeries a year. And now these people are changing their entire gender and pointing at these people for being fake is supposedly wrong? Because it's "necessary", the same as the cosmetic freaks claimed? Why should it?

In their mind, trans people just need a reality check the same way they dealt with cosmetic surgery addicts, but society seems to protect and pamper them instead of pointing out that they are loved in their natural look. And instead of trying to understand, they double down on what they've done for years. Sunk cost.

Dorfprivileg

Früher wurde nicht überprüft, da im Dorf die Wahlhelfer mich kannten.

Jetzt wohn Ich ein Dorf weiter und bin unsicher, waren die bei der einen Dorfparty, bei der Ich war? Kennen die mich noch von früher? Ich habs nicht so mit Gesichtern.

Ich bin immer wieder aufs neue Überascht, dass die meinen Ausweis nicht brauchen.

Was, wenn mir der Schein auf dem Weg zu Lokal geklaut worden sei und irgendwer anders an meiner statt da auftaucht, hmm?

Yeah, but throwing out some splinter groups to make a stable government possible is necessary after all, we remember Weimar - though we should not have that threshold at 18 seats by percentage or 3 direct mandates.

On the other hand, I disagree on blaming the democrat loss on third party voters. Third party votes stayed roughly the same compared to 2020 (+0.5 million, not all towards left), while 6 million democrat votes were lost. Democrats simply did not get enough people to the booths with their campaign.

I was arguing to non-voters who adopted a "my single vote doesn't matter" perspective. A single vote in a country is never a few percent.

If people already know and trust that their vote can add up with others to a few percent here or there, they would already go and vote in our system I feel.

Unless I vote for a winning independent local candidate, then my second vote is annulled.

But this isn't about the exact mechanism of German elections. I say colloquially I have 1 vote to cast/2 crosses to set.

Warning: Bad design, but instead of arguing over the top part, which definitely has some considerations that make it a bit more complicated, my main concern is the bottom part.

It's not enough that my vote is thrown away if I don't vote, but put in a blender with all the other non-voters and then distributed in part to the very parties I do not like.