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Pretty much anything related to statistics and probability. People have gut feelings because our minds are really good at finding patterns, but we're also really good at making up patterns that don't exist.
The one people probably have most experience with is the gambler's fallacy. After losing more than expected, people think they'll now be more likely to win.
I also like the Monty Hall problem and the birthday problem.
The gamblerβs fallacy is pretty easy to get, as is the Monty Hall problem if you restate the question as having 100 doors instead of 3. But for the life of me I donβt think Iβll ever have an intuitive understanding of the birthday problem. That one just boggles my mind constantly.
Really? The birthday problem is a super simple multiplication, you can do it on paper. The only thing you really need to understand is the inversion of probability (P(A) = 1 - P(not A)).
The Monty hall problem... I've understood it at times, but every time I come back to it I have to figure it out again, usually with help. That shit is unintuitive.
Lemme try my favorite way to explain the birthday problem without getting too mathy:
If you take 23 people, that's 253 pairs of people to compare (23 people x22 others to pair them with/2 people per pair). That's a lot of pairs to check and get only unique answers
The immune system is strong and defends your body against germs.
The immune system works 100% of 50% of the time. Immunology is the best way to convince someone that it's a miracle that they're still alive. Anyways, get vaccinated. Don't rely on your immune system to figure things out
Another variation of that is claiming how getting sick repeatedly is somehow beneficial for getting a strong immune system. That ignores research, as children who have a lot of common infections early in life have higher risk of moderate to severe infections and antibiotic use throughout childhood. That also ignores viruses for which a durable immunity isn't currently possible, such as COVID.
EDIT: Basically the immunity system doesn't work like a muscle.
EDIT: Basically the immunity system doesnβt work like a muscle.
I think the immune system can be likened to a muscle if someone really wants to go with that metaphor, but only if you consider vaccines to be the gym and getting sick is uncontrollable and dangerous physical exertion. So, wanting to develop natural immunity is like wanting to get into street fights to build arm strength. It might kinda work, but you'll also be in a lot of unnecessary danger.
For real.
Looking up how almost any potentially deadly disease attacks a human body just makes you go "how tf do you beat that".
The answer is usually just "your immune systems kills it faster than it kills you" and that ain't some sure-fire defense. It's a straight up microbiological war happening inside you.
The immune system is strong and defends your body against germs.
Which is why you should get vaccinated.
Vaccination primes your immune system so it can mount a coordinated response the first time it actually encounters the pathogen.
Yup, vaccination isn't reinforcements, it's training. It's having the other team's playbook before they even step foot on the field.
Less tax is better.
No saying that taxation as it currently exists it optimal, but any decent assessment of how to improve things requires a lot of nuance that is nearly never considered by most people.
I'm not mad at the huge amount I pay in taxes. I'm mad about what I get in return.
A lot of outdoor survival "common sense" can get you killed:
Moss doesn't exclusively grow on the north side of trees. Local conditions are too chaotic and affect what side is most conducive to moss. Don't use moss for navigation.
Don't drink alcohol to warm yourself up. It feels warm but actually does the opposite: alcohol opens up your capillaries and allows more heat to escape through your skin, which means you lose body heat a lot faster.
Don't eat snow to rehydrate yourself. It will only make you freeze to death faster. Melt the snow outside of your body first.
Don't assume a berry is safe to eat just because you see birds eating them. You're not a bird. Your digestive system is very different from a bird's digestive system.
If you've been starving for a long time, don't gorge yourself at the first opportunity when you get back to civilization. You can get refeeding syndrome which can kill you. It's best to go to the hospital where you can be monitored and have nutrients slowly reintroduced in a way that won't upset the precarious balance your body has found itself in.
That budgets for households, businesses, and goverments have much to do with each other
Edit: fixed typo. 'nd' to 'and'.
Hurr durr but the national debt is like a credit card and all debt is bad. China can just say pay up and we're fucked.
And other stupid shit my parents used to say.
China can just say pay up and weβre fucked.
Yeah, them and what army? (Well, the PLA, but going into MAD and great power military strategy would be too much of a digression)
A classical example of Westerners thinking human laws are laws of physics somehow. I assume Westerners, anyway. It'd be weird to hear this from anyone recently imported.
'Building more lanes will reduce traffic' is a classic.
I think it's just missing a bit of specificity.
Building more bike lanes will reduce traffic. Building more bus lanes will reduce traffic. Building more tram lines will reduce traffic. Building more car lanes will ~~reduce~~ induce traffic.
Not perfect, but solid logic within reason (Building 100 more bus lanes will reduce traffic).
They enlarged rt 3 near rt 95 in MA many years ago. It was getting backed up due to all of the people moving further out from Boston. I said "It will be full again in a few years." Yup. It was moving well for a few years so everyone piled into that area because the commute was better and within a few years it was a traffic jam again.
that putting the thermostat up higher will heat the house up quicker (edit: I have in mind a bog standard UK home thermostat)
that sugary sweets make kids act "hyper"
that the moon's apparent size is due to how close it is to earth (same for seasons and the sun)
that your base metabolic rate slows as you age and is primarily responsible for you putting weight on in middle age
In the case of inverter air conditioning it might make a small difference at it won't throttle down as it approaches the intended, not commanded, target.
that putting the thermostat up higher will heat the house up quicker
If you have a 2 stage furnace, this may actually be a thing.
Folk idioms that contradict each other are my favourite. For example, "the cream rises to the top" vs. "it's not what you know, it's who you know".
"The squeaky wheel gets the grease"
"The nail that sticks out gets hammered down."
I like to try and combine these to see what kind of reactions I get.
The cream rises to who you know.
The squeaky wheel gets hammered down.
He who laughs last, comes around.
Great minds killed the cat!
To tilt your head back if you have a blood nose.
This is no longer recommended advice, because you end up drinking the blood which causes vomiting.
Way to stop them is put ice over the back of neck, plug nose with tissue and clear clots each 2 mins.
Pressing the crosswalk button over and over will make the light change faster.
Well it finally changed the 8th time I pressed it, so checkmate.
Cold Air will make you sick.
There are plenty of studies debunking it, and yet I still hear about it all the time.
Common sense itself.
Some people put way too much stock in "common sense" as some blanket assumption and insult to lob at anything and everything they don't like.
They internally define what they believe to be "common" and everything that deviates is outside of that. They use it to fuel their own sense of self satisfaction and smugness, while additionally fueling negativity and hatred for others.
It fuels their toxicity and comes to define their view of everything, which is typically grossly oversimplified for their own needs.
Is common sense just an earlier, naive label for confirmation bias?
A key aspect is that it doesn't even require confirmation.
"Bigger is better"
The harder it is to pull a bow, the faster the arrows.
Isn't that true, all other things being equal?
Depends.
Compound bows are designed such that you put in a LOT of energy where your mechanical advantage is high (at the start of the draw) then less as your mechanical advantage diminishes (at the end of the draw).
This makes the bow very "light" to pull and easy to hold drawn, but the energy with which the arrow will be fired is higher than almost any other design, save some cross-bows.
The most vulnerable will be hit the hardest.