this post was submitted on 19 May 2025
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My money (while I have it) is that this is going to be the most lasting damage of Trump's presidency. Piss off the world and demonstrate we're unreliable economic partners. They don't want our debt anymore and dump their holdings/new purchases at auction. Servicing debt is already around 15% of All federal spending. DOGE targets are nothing in comparison.
Debt can get very expensive, and we've gotten used to paying very little for it. Most people aren't considering how bad this can get - I hope someone with power has been
Trump struts around driveling about how everyone is ripping off the US left and right when in fact we have a stranglehold on most of the world, favored status almost everywhere we go, and structural advantages we forced on the world and have been milking for decades.
Many advisors have.
Many debt hawks in Congress have too.
But it’s not populist policy because the concept is too complex, so it’s never politically tenable. :/
Absolutely. Republicans don't realize just how tenuous our status on the world stage, and thought it was still the 1950s. With everything they're doing, we're absolutely cooked for decades to come.
That implies we'd ever recover and this isn't just the permanent end of American dominance.
Sentiments like yours are probably the same sorts of things some British folks were telling themselves after WWII as their empire slipped away.
Oh no, you completely took the wrong implication out of this.
"We're cooked for decades" meaning that we're absolutely fucked, but it might not be awful after a few decades. I have no allusions that the American hegemony will ever return.
Doge's cuts can't event cover Doge's costs, let alone anything else, let alone all the following damages resulting from those cuts.
The dumping isn't actually occurring in the traditional sense; central banks typically hold short-term maturities (around 2 years) between them for stability. Japan is the primary foreign holder of us debt. In reality, there's no need for them to sell off these assets. They can simply wait until they mature, as selling would negatively impact their own investments. On top, they could decide to not participate in new auctions or request higher yields at those auctions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/
china for sure has been