this post was submitted on 19 May 2025
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Oh god. What happened today?
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-tariffs-trade-war-05-19-2025/card/u-s-30-year-treasury-yield-touches-5--MFBVfsJ1GbjRKH53AEC5
5.023%. goddamn. I know they were purposely trying to trigger a recession, but it actually went over 5%.
I wonder what the massive over-leveraged asset will be this time.
Please explain the significance of this to someone who’s never bought a bond but has dug through a couch to find spare change for groceries.
US Government Bonds are referred to as “risk free debt” because it is seen as the safest investment in existence. The US has never missed a payment in the whole history of the country.
Because of that all interest rates are related to the bond rate. People are getting nervous that US bonds are no longer trust worthy so they are demanding higher interest rates. This is terrible for the economy because those are the floor of interest rates. Meaning the cost to borrow is going up along with the cost of every thing else.
They're only the floor because they're seen as risk free. "Why lend someone money for less than what the US government is offering you? The government is always gonna pay you back, after all". If that mentality changes then treasury bonds will no longer be the floor, because you'd rather lend the money to someone else than the US government.
Not that this isn't disastrous for the US. Increased taxes, cuts to medicare/medicaid/military, a government default, or a mix of all three are an inevitability. The US government can probably keep paying interest payment costs with more debt for a while, but not forever. These movements in the bond market takes us closer to the end of the USA's debt spree.
Donald Trump is dismantling the US and I can’t even enjoy it because he’s an asshole.
Boring, dumb, ugly timeline…
The lack of triple A status seems to indicate the debt is most definitely not risk-free.
I always would argue with my finance professors that calling it risk free was stupid given that most governments default on their debt eventually, and the US is probably no different
In short, if the government plans to spend a lot, and people worry about prices going up, bond yields rise. This can make borrowing more expensive for everyone
Tap for longer
Government Budget: When the government makes a plan for how to spend money (the budget), it can include a lot of spending on things like roads, schools, or healthcare Or Tax cuts or Big Beautiful Bill
Rising Bond Yields: If people think this spending will cause prices to go up (inflation), they want more money back for lending to the government. So, they ask for higher interest on bonds, which is called a higher yield.
Why It Matters:
Is this why BTC is breaking new record highs as well?
Yes. Lack of trust in dollar due to the fiscal shenanigans
So I’m gonna go from a 27% interest rate on my emergency credit card that is always at its limit to, what, like a 35% interest rate?
Ballpark Yeah but it will not happen overnight.
Eli5 version:
Sam likes candy, and in the past, Sam has been very good at paying kids back for candy with a little bonus for doing so. Sam wants more candy, but Sam has lately been acting weird and unreliable, so no one wants to give them any because they aren't as confident that they will get paid back. Sam is now offering to give back even more in the future than his usual amount in the hopes that someone will give him candy. Sam is still acting pretty sketch, and getting more sketch every day.
Then Sam needs to start resorting to force and/or threats of force to ensure his access to candy. Don't bother stealing from the candy store, but beat up weaker kids and take their lunch money to buy candy, with the clear implication that any resistance in the future will lead to more extreme violence.
That's just taxation. Which is something Sam really really hates. Easier to just borrow money forever. It's risk free, after all.
No, taxation is beating up people he lives with. I'm suggesting force against those he doesn't care about.
Also, risk is a factor.
If you lend money to your flaky cousin, you might want more interest to cover the risk of him never paying you back. If you lend money to your twin sister who has never missed a single thing in her life, maybe half a percent will do.
Well, the US just started moving into flaky cousin territory after two centuries of reliable sister.
Hm? So? Seems like there is zero correlation to Trump getting into office.
LOL, Good one! 🤣
Today’s 5% hit is due to The big beautiful bill
It's correlated with the end of US QE and the FED trying to fight inflation. But Trump is now in charge of fighting that growth, not of adding to it.