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I don't see how Trump wins in 2024. He lost, badly, in 2020 and that's with the incumbent advantage. Now Biden has the incumbent advantage and isn't restricted to campaigning from his basement because some asshole fucked up the response to a pandemic. Meanwhile Trump is hemorrhaging cash paying for lawyers to defend him from multiple ongoing and imminent criminal indictments. He'll find time to hold his stupid rallies every couple of days but he will be distracted and unfocused (even for Trump). He's performed worse than the last time every election since 2016 (2018 lost the house, 2020 lost the presidency and the senate, 2022 all his favored candidates lost and Rs didn't get the Senate back and barely won the House).
The 2024 race is Biden's to lose and unless there's some sort of health issue that takes him out or there's a huge scandal that actually has some substance to it, I think he walks away with it.
Straw polls are pretty close right now. While I like to hope that Biden would win, since Biden has been pretty innocuous--not good, not bad, just more of the same normalcy that we had prior to Trump--that's just not a sure thing.