And I expect we'll see secondary effects too, cause people using XHS will be talking to their friends and show them stuff about what life is really like in China. I imagine there's going to be a lot of positive coming out of all this.
Russia tends to be fairly good at keeping their commitments in general. So, I can't really see them stabbing China in the back here.
Exactly, it's not so much that Russia is loyal to China but rather that the west has precious little to offer. I do think that this sort of political variability is more prevalent in the west however. Russian and Chinese politics are much more stable in nature, and hence there tends to be a lot less surprise upsets of the sort we see in the west.
I mean anything can happen in theory, but I would put chances of that happening outside the realm of realistic expectations. The reality is that the US is not a politically stable country. Anything one administration promises can be completely reversed by the next, as Europeans are now finding out to their utter horror. So, any deal, no matter how sincere, has a horizon of 4 years tops. Whatever you may think of people in charge of Russia, they are not stupid or shortsighted. They plan for the long term and that means they need partners who can offer long term stability in turn.
Furthermore, the US has precious little to offer Russia in practical terms. Russian economy has already adjusted to sanctions, and it's actually growing faster now than it has before the war. If maximum pressure from the west amounts to so little, its maximum friendship isn't worth much more.
The best the US can hope to achieve here is to get on good terms with Russia, cut its commitments to Europe, and benefit from renwerd trade with Russia going forward. Whether Trump admin understands this is of course a different question. I do think they expect to peel Russia away from China by offering to lift sanctions, allow Russia to use SWIFT, and so on. What's going to be interesting to see is how the US reacts when they realize that Russia and China aren't going to be peeled apart.
Let's be clear that there is zero chance of Russia and China dividing here. What Kissinger did was exploit the existing divisions after Khrushchev denounced Stalin, he didn't create a rift out of thin air. Today, there is no existing division between Russia and China to exploit and their interests are very much aligned. What's actually happening is that we're seeing a division in the west.
I very much agree, and I'd argue that one of the biggest outcomes from the war was that European masks fell off. Russians finally got to see what Europeans really think of them, and I don't think there's any going back from this now. At least not for a generations. Ever since the fall of USSR, Russians really wanted to be part of Europe, hence Putin's attempts to bend over backwards for them.
Now, Russians know that Europeans hate them with a passion, and they can never be part of Europe. At the same time, Russians are now seeing that they don't need Europe nearly as much as Europe needs them. Russian economy is doing fine while Europe is collapsing without Russian energy. I expect there's going to be a lot more self confidence in Russia going forward.
looks like Europe spreading rumors again
Ah thanks for the heads up, will have to try this out.
very much agree with all that
Oh I've been meaning to try cursor. What did you end up doing?
Exactly, this is the kind of stuff I want to see automation for.