Geopolitics
The study of how factors such as geography, economics, military capability and non-State actors affects the foreign policy of states.
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the appeasement to Russia as a strategy to divide them from China, i wonder what Europe does tho. if the appeasement strategy works and it divides russia from china, what would Europe do?
Let's be clear that there is zero chance of Russia and China dividing here. What Kissinger did was exploit the existing divisions after Khrushchev denounced Stalin, he didn't create a rift out of thin air. Today, there is no existing division between Russia and China to exploit and their interests are very much aligned. What's actually happening is that we're seeing a division in the west.
I wouldn't say there is no chance whatsoever of a split between Russia and China. I think that would be naive to say. Anything is possible in regards to politics, dumb luck, human stupidity and evil and short-sightedness. And there are almost definitely divisions in how China and Russia perceive the world and their place in it.
China, despite some of it's fluffy rhetoric, almost definitely wants to bring socialism to all of humanity, which of course is an awesome thing.
Russia is more opportunistic, and is kind of a comparative wild card, and up until recently (and probably still true) just wants to be on top of whatever world system it can eke out. Thankfully, Russia as a whole seems to be genuine in moving towards an anti-imperialist direction, and it's in the countries' best interest to support China and multipolarity and eventually socialism.
I will agree with experts that China and Russia are closer than ever before, and will hopefully/likely remain allies for many decades to come.
I mean anything can happen in theory, but I would put chances of that happening outside the realm of realistic expectations. The reality is that the US is not a politically stable country. Anything one administration promises can be completely reversed by the next, as Europeans are now finding out to their utter horror. So, any deal, no matter how sincere, has a horizon of 4 years tops. Whatever you may think of people in charge of Russia, they are not stupid or shortsighted. They plan for the long term and that means they need partners who can offer long term stability in turn.
Furthermore, the US has precious little to offer Russia in practical terms. Russian economy has already adjusted to sanctions, and it's actually growing faster now than it has before the war. If maximum pressure from the west amounts to so little, its maximum friendship isn't worth much more.
The best the US can hope to achieve here is to get on good terms with Russia, cut its commitments to Europe, and benefit from renwerd trade with Russia going forward. Whether Trump admin understands this is of course a different question. I do think they expect to peel Russia away from China by offering to lift sanctions, allow Russia to use SWIFT, and so on. What's going to be interesting to see is how the US reacts when they realize that Russia and China aren't going to be peeled apart.
I'm aware of how short-sighted and unstable the U.S. is, but bipartisan goals in this country can survive years and years of "leadership changes" is my concern.
The U.S. instability and division can actually somewhat frustratingly work it it's favor, by keeping the masses distracted and angry and divided and fearful, further cementing the rule of the capitalists and imperial hegemony, and cause people to become even further supporters of Amerikkkan imperialism.
My concern is that Russia turning on China, while being an unlikely possibility, is way above a remote possibility. If I had to guess, maybe it's a 1.5-10 or 20 percent. Even 1.5 percent is too high for my tastes.
I think that fortunately, Russia has very little reason to turn towards the west, and that even the lifting of sanctions or being allowed back into SWIFT isn't nearly enough to persuade Russia back. It would take multiple acts of god for Russia to even slightly turn back to the west, let alone distance itself from, let alone betray China.
Alot of times in politics and probability and thought, it's not the very likely and very unlikely things that concern me. It's the unlikely things. Even a 1 or two percent chance can end up feeling more like 30 percent.
Exactly, it's not so much that Russia is loyal to China but rather that the west has precious little to offer. I do think that this sort of political variability is more prevalent in the west however. Russian and Chinese politics are much more stable in nature, and hence there tends to be a lot less surprise upsets of the sort we see in the west.
I would argue that Russia does have a sense of loyalty to China, but it's not as rock solid as it should be IMO.
Russia tends to be fairly good at keeping their commitments in general. So, I can't really see them stabbing China in the back here.