I will be very surprised if China can't make their own competitive AI chips soon.
Huawei and SMIC are steaming ahead on developing better chips as much as ever despite the sanctions.
USA is sorely mistaken if they think they still have the upper hand against China. USA is also losing soft power fast with old allies, and this has already resulted in ASML opening office in China again.
Probably because China has figured out the basics of how to make EUV themselves, so it's only a matter of time before ASML becomes irrelevant in China, Unless they ignore American demands of sanctioning China completely, terms which demand ASML can't even maintain already delivered equipment!
We are already seeing clear signs of Europe ignoring American demands, and USA losing their soft power. Because they are alienating allies.
And Trump weakening USA in that regard is emboldening China to fight back. Denying USA access to crucial rare earth minerals, That ultimately will result in American EV products to become inferior on both engines and batteries.
Denying China chips will slow them down intermittently, but it will accelerate their efforts to catch up on both production and design of their own chips, ultimately making China more independent.
It's funny how China is always blamed for not buying American products, and when they do, USA is sanctioning them to try to slow them down. 😋
USA is teaching China that they can't rely on others especially USA, they need complete technological independence, and they need to be able to deal with USA from a postion of strength. The way Trump is acting will sour the relations for decades.