this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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Converting this to decimal odds like a normal person:
AI fake fools a politician who complains on TV: 1.5
Political assassination anywhere in the world: 2.8
Joe Biden dies: 2.5
A VP becomes president: 4 (why is this less likely than Biden kicking the bucket?)
Legal battle for whether Israel pledges trump free speech: 2
Israel wins the legal battle: 5
A fascist doesn't become president: 1001
Bitcoin's price changes by $40,000: 3
Retail real estate prices collapse: 4
Retail real estate gets bailed out: 7
Any once in a lifetime economic collapse: 3
Any once in a lifetime weather event: 3
US involvement in an African military conflict:4
What I should have done for that VP becomes president is Trump wins and then dies for a big 500 odds payout ~~alongside a sizeable Biden dies at any point this year for a 100 payout (which is on there)~~