Image is Israeli interceptors trying and failing to intercept missiles over their cities.
Israel just carried out a widespread bombing of Iran, which has killed a number of senior officials inside Iran (though it seems the leadership is more-or-less intact) as well as a number of civilians. Important facilities have been targeted, but the amount of damage is unknown so far (note that many important Iranian facilities are deep underground, making them both hard to damage but also hard to determine if they are damaged from just satellite imagery, so reports of damage will be he-said-she-said).
It appears the attack took Iran by surprise, given that a residential block was targeted that contained some senior officials - if one saw an attack coming, one would imagine they'd be in bunkers. Nonetheless, like the rest of the Resistance Axis, I suspect that Iran has adapted their military structures to be resistant to decapitation strikes by ensuring that replacement figures are ready to take the place of killed officials.
Iran has delivered a massive missile barrage in response to Israeli aggression, even though Israel is continuing to bomb Iran. Iran is now aware of the location of many important Israeli sites, including secret nuclear sites, due to their recent intelligence haul, giving them a distinct edge.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Doomers on Hexbear really don't seem to understand just how massive Iran and it's military are, it's inventory alone is massive
Iran is not Syria, it's not Libya, not Lebanon, not 2003 or 1991 Iraq, if it was, we'd be seeing hundreds of explosions like Baghdad in 2003, not a 'maybe kinda sorta' a dozen single strikes here and there that may or may not have hit their target
Calm the fuck down, this is not a failed Arab comprador state, this war is just starting
I agree with you in general, but there's been a lot more than a dozen strikes, and nuclear facilities have been hit, along with missile cities and decapitation strikes on key figures. That's a big deal.
It's a war, losses and casualties are inevitable, even serious defeats can happen, but MFs in here acting like Iran is gonna fall apart like Syria six months ago
That's not gonna happen
It's not a war until both sides are fighting. Right now it's a massacre with Iran sitting on its hands
Who is actually saying that? All I have seen is "this was a defeat" met with "wow so doomer pilled". People are jumping at ghosts of the idea that this is not good. More than they are concerned about the dead
How is it a defeat if the battle isn't over yet? The Battle of Britain was a four month back and forth operation, imagine if some Brits after the Kanalkampf were like "That's it lads we lost the Canal, it's over!"
lmao goddamn it's been four hours let Iran take off their jacket at least
Air defense systems failing to stop an attack that was pretty telegraphed IS a defeat. This is if nothing else a morale loss for the time being. Yes they CAN turn that around, but that doesn't mean this was not a defeat in and of itself. You can move the goalposts to make anything short of total defeat in a war into not being a "real defeat". Was Operation Barbarossa not a defeat for the Red Army? They greatly failed to anticipate their enemy, they lost a ton of ground, they lost a ton of men, they lost a ton of equipment. Much of the Soviet airforce for instance was destroyed in the opening weeks.
That doesn't mean they didn't make the Nazis pay for it, and eventually stopped the tide, but those were still losses. it would be ludicrous to look at the air war on June 22 and not call it a defeat.
Or for another example, Pearl Harbor, the US pretty soundly won the War in the Pacific, but the intelligence and defensive failure to stop that attack was still a defeat. It signaled complete unconditional surrender down the line, but the battle itself was devastating for even having happened.
I just think it is silly to treat the bombing of Tehran and the striking of several nuclear facilities and missile launch bases with a near absence of successful air defenses as something other than a defeat and a loss. You are preemptively counting retaliation in whether or not this strike worked. That kind of goalpost moving is a disservice to the lives lost and the materiel destroyed in this blow.
What has anyone said that is equivalent to "that's it lads we lost the Canal, it's over"? You are asking me to imagine a scenario that parallels something I never said. You went for the Battle of Britain or the entire war being lost, no one else did. You decided that calling this a defeat at all, would be the equivalent of calling losses during an entire campaign a total defeat. You have to know you are being disingenuous.
Was 9/11 not a defeat strategically for the US? I know that is not really a fair comparison, but yours sure as hell is not either.
So let's just regard this in the context of itself. Israel struck Iran and Iran's defenses failed, that is a bad thing and a failure of defense. They could take down Israel by tomorrow and it would still have been a loss for Iran that this strike went off so well. That is ALL that is being said. Not that the war is lost or the west is ascendant, but that anti-missile systems failing so thoroughly like this is a net loss for Iran.
They could have not been hit this hard and been able to do whatever retaliation they are gonna do in the next hours, but sadly that is not what happened, and it is ok to admit that fact. These are not losses to attrition, or losses in a battle, but little-contested losses. That doesn't mean they are losses on the level of losing a war, but they are still a nasty scar.
I am sure Iran will strike back hard, and I have faith in them. I have faith that they will see this through. But I am not going to shrug off or trivialize the loss of life and security breach that occurred just to make myself feel better.
edit: and I say this with nothing but love comrade. I am snippy and exhausted so I apologize if I come off rude
IT'S BEEN FOUR HOURS, we can only make assessments until after Iran responds, until then calling it either way is premature and pointless
Exactly my overarching point, and WHO WON THE WAR?
Unless Iran delivers another Pearl Harbor to Israel in the next few hours, otherwise the comparison isn't apt
Posters here have literally said "it's over" scroll down if you don't believe me, it's upvoted plus 20 or something, I'm not hallucinating, too many of you are prematurely dooming
I "went" for the Battle of Britain because it's an operational and historical equivalent; Britain and Germany are separated by 350km, Iran and Israel by over a 1000km, that's why the impatience and panic displayed in this thread is inappropriate
First of all, WE DON'T KNOW THAT, so let's cut the speculation, under 24 hour info is almost always wrong, we will find out the true extent of what took place in the coming days, right now WE DON'T KNOW SHIT and plumes of smoke aren't enough to basis an analysis on
The Soviet's winning the war is irrelevant to the action of June 1941. THAT is my point. You can lose a battle and still win the war, but you are fixated on browbeating anyone for implying they lost this battle. It was not even a battle, it was a slaughter which Iran could not resist in the moment, and will now have to endure, regroup, and fight back.
Your overarching point is moving the goalposts as much as possible because one person was being totally defeatist and people upvoted it. Also we do have enough information to say for certain that Israel's attack was not repulsed. After Pearl Harbor most ships could be salvaged and were up and running months later, does that mean Pearl Harbor was not a tactical defeat for the US? Was Barbarossa not a defeat for the USSR?
Saying "YEAH BUT THEY WON" is not a response to what I am saying. Whatever stupid thing someone else said, sure, but I am talking about THIS engagement on the 12th. There is a difference between dooming and calling something bad, and treating those as the same is the equivalent of sticking your head in the sand and saying things are perfectly fine.
Also you are using "Battle of Britain" as if it was a battle. it was a campaign, the name is just for alliteration. You CAN treat individual days as successes or defeats. if military analysts looked back and said "nuh uh any failures during the blitz are not failures because we won, don't analyze why this thing worked and this thing didn't" that would be foolish. if battle is so wrong then fine, the action on the 12th was a defeat for Iran.
We do know that the defenses failed btw. I don't trust EuroNews but this has been corroborated a bunch and is consistent with what happened https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/13/israels-mossad-mounts-high-tech-covert-operation-to-strike-targets-deep-inside-iran-source
Mossad took down their defenses prior to the attack. That is a security breach, I don't know how you can say that isn't.
You can see the discrepancy here https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933516844578844953 This does not mean Iran lost the war, you know I am not saying that. But calling this minor damage or saying the defenses held up is just denying observable reality. They can rebuild, they can fight back, they can and MUST win. But that does not make what happened yesterday alright or not a security failure. That was my point about Barbarossa, yes the Soviets won, but no one would call Barbarossa a Soviet victory, or anything less than a devastating defeat. Screaming "but they won" does not make the destroyed buildings not a problem or the breaches of security acceptable
Here is a spokesperson for the Armed Police in China who seems to think Mossad's footage of their raid on iran's defenses is accurate https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1933455756889895329
Calling that defeatism and jumping the gun is just covering your ears, as is framing any comments on it as equivalent to saying Iran has lost the war.
You seem really intent on this debatebro bullshit; first of all the battle of Britain is an appropriate equivalent to what is taking place right now, the operational parameters are one to one and being pedantic about whether it's a "battle" or a "campaign" is utterly relevant to my previous point about why making boldfaced assessments toward victory or defeat is inappropriate
Second YOU'RE the one who brought up Operation Barbarossa while I'm critiquing people WHO ARE DOOMING, you want to check the thread now and tell me with a straight face Hexbears aren't sitting expecting Iran to lose the war and collapse? Me pointing out who won the war despite Barbarossa is demonstrating why defeatism is a pointless and misguided exercise especially during the early phases of a war, I never moved goalposts, you just keep bringing up irrelevances and getting annoyed when I point out the flaw in your logic; when comparing air battles or "CAMPAIGNS" you don't bring up land wars or naval engagements, when the US invades Iran with the army and Marines then we can bring Barbarossa, when Israel sinks the Iranian navy in a single strike then we bring up Pearl Harbor......
Until then, the operational and tactical equivalent is the Battle of Britain
edit: you know what this really does not matter. You mentioned the Battle of Britain, but we don't need parallels, we have what is happening right now which can be judged on its own, not fit into a specific box of "well unless ships are involved then it is irrelevant"
Iran suffered losses and Israel was able to strike them with no real pushback in the attack itself. Iran's defenses got hit from inside Iran via drone attacks, their S-300s have been out of commission since October of last year. You don't need the Battle of Britain in order to determine that that is a defeat for Iran's air defenses. NOT THE WAR, but the air defenses during this attack. Which so far everyone has been talking about save for one comment from what you have shown me.
Don't vague post complaining about people, actually respond to them directly instead of policing everyone's language and attitudes based on your interpretation of what they are thinking in their homes at this moment. You are fixated on what other people might think this means for an entire war, than what people are actually saying about this event itself.
Iran is already striking back and hard. Debating about whether or not someone here THOUGHT about this in the context of the entire war to come or not is really silly. The damage to iran is the damage to Iran, and should be judged based on how well it was mitigated, not just the response down the line, and certainly not based on WW2 comparisons.
You're still dooming?
Oh so you are saying I was dooming? So you finally want to actually admit what you are complaining about instead of gesturing at a different comment and vague posting about what you THINK people feel?
You said your problem was people saying Iran had lost the war, i trusted you had nuance, I guess I was wrong, you really did see any view that Iran getting struck like that was bad as complete doomerism.
Point me to what I said that was doomer? You gonna be passive aggressive and vague, or are you going to admit that you are angry at me for saying Iran's defenses failed and Israel's attack was more effective than it should have been? Because that is ALL my comments have been about in this thread. I seriously thought you had to nuance to only be talking about people saying Iran lost, but now you are saying I have been dooming? For what, saying the S-300 system being taken out and nothing replacing it was bad?
WHen did I say Iran had lost the war? Don't vague post, or construct narratives, actually speak
People were dooming, you defended their dooming though unsupported assumptions, hence you were dooming
I asked for people actually doing that, and the one example you gave I said I agreed with you on. How is that dooming? This word means nothing at this point, you created for yourself a version of "woke". And what unsupported assumptions? apartment blocks in Tehran got blown up, Iran's defenses did not halt Israel's bombings all last night. Iran themselves had already talked about getting them "back online".
Iranian defenses DID fail to stop those strikes. That is not an assumption, it is supported by the fact that they literally didn't manage to stop them. So while others are discussing the sabotage which low and behold hours later we are getting more and more specifics on, you were brow beating me for.....saying missiles hit on account of missiles hitting?
You are demanding people just ignore damage to Iran, as "unsupported assumptions". What did I say that was unsupported? Did those buildings just do that randomly at the same time Israel fired missiles? This was observably a failure of security and defense, that is not debatable. You are talking as if I said Israel actually nuked Tehran and Iran surrendered. You don't want reality, you want to complain that people are dooming, and so you adapt dooming and what people are actually saying to accommodate that.
Iranian defenses failed to stop SOME of those strikes, obviously they stopped enough to keep the ability to rain 300 missiles on Israel, so obviously not as much of a "defeat" as you originally supposed, hence why dooming in the early hours of a war is dumb
You are demanding people just ignore damage to Iran, as "unsupported assumptions".
I'm demanding people stop making shit up and pretending like the fog of war and information warfare doesn't exist
I didn't say you said that, I said you've been defending people who said that by shooting out unsupported assumptions about the state of the Iranian military
Now stop being a fuckin crybaby, Tel Aviv is on fire, events are developing, you fell for the dooming, so now ADAPT and move on
Except I never doomed. You keep asserting that. Like you need me to have doomed. You need me to have felt a certain way cause that makes you feel good. The idea that I believe that Iran was caught with their pants down and suffered serious security breaches and that is IT, is something you refuse to believe. You want to tell me what I felt and what I mean over and over. Look through my posts, I just showed you me saying in no uncertain terms that Iran has suffered worse and wont collapse.
I didn't make unsupported assumptions about the state of the Iranian military, you yourself said others said that and you are accusing me of defending them. I did not defend their comments. You gave me ONE example and I said that person was wrong. I am not being a crybaby, I am wondering why you care so much about how YOU believe I FEEL. You cannot just accept that my stance was what I always said it was, you NEED me to have been dooming. It's weirding me out. I thought we were talking about other people,but now I find out you believed I was dooming the whole time because I asked for clarifications and mentioned that Iran's defenses got taken down.
Which to that point, their defenses did get severely breached. They didn't just fail to stop "some" strikes, their air defenses got disabled in several locations due to Mossad on the ground inside Iran. That is not just inevitably not shooting down everything, that is a security failure. That and Marmalade was proven correct in their warning that some systems were not integrated. THAT is what I was talking about, explicitly. That was the defeat on the 12th. Not the war, not the totality of Iran's forces or even its air defenses, but the general defense was defeated from the inside.
That is a cause of concern, and not just the law of probabilities. The Mossad attack is a failure of security, I don't know why you insist that my mentioning this is dooming.
This was me 16 hours ago btw
Yeah such dooming, you got me. Viewing dead Iranians as a tragedy and not just something to shrug off and treat as not a loss is such doomerism
Do you think Marmalade is dooming as well? Is anything but complete certainty that no setbacks have occurred doomerism? Starting to think that whole label might be dumb rhetoric and a thought terminating cliche to lump anyone you don't agree with into one. From people saying Russia has lost to those saying the strikes on Russia's airfields are not good for Russian security.
Tel Aviv is in ruins, unsupported assumption
Unsupported assumption
Unsupported assumption
Unsupported assumption
YOU WERE DOOMING
Their nuclear facilities are hit and several top scientists are dead, those are not assumptions.
Hezbollah has announced they will not directly take action against Israel in this conflict, not an assumption https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/13/hezbollah-official-says-group-will-not-initiate-attack-on-israel-after-iran-strikes
They do only have missiles for retaliation as it stands, you yourself just fixated on that saying that no comparison but the Battle of Britain works BECAUSE it is an air war with distance between them. You mere hours ago made this exact point.
Their nuclear scientists are DEAD, that is not an assumption, their facilities are bombed and thankfully no leak so the centrifuge has held, but their means of enrichment are disabled.
You are calling things assumptions that Iran had already confirmed. What are we allowed to say? What do you deem acceptable to talk about? We cannot talk about losses, we cannot say the word failure, we cannot speak about deaths as mattering, we cannot speak to challenges with responses.
You seem more mad at me for stating that Iran got HIT at all, than you are at Israel. It is fucking ludicrous. You WANT me to be dooming, you need me to be saying Iran has lost. And you couldn't even respond directly till I pushed you on it. You just vague posted complaints and intentionally misunderstood. Because GOD FORBID anyone look at Tehran in flames and say "that is not good". That is all it takes to be dooming for you. God you wouldve called Stalin a doomer for even mentioning that Minsk and Kiev fell.
There are 250,000 scientists and engineers in Iran and no radiation leak has been recorded from the struck facility, losses are not the same thing as defeat, sorry if that concept bricks your brain
I'm more annoyed you keep pretending like people weren't dooming by claiming Iran was heading toward collapse and surrender, people WERE doing that, also I literally fuckin acknowledged losses and casualties in my first goddamn comment and never ONCE have I claimed Iran hasn't suffered from the attack. But that's a far cry from the doompilled nonsense you're spouting where "ALL Iranian defenses failed, utterly and totally" go ask that downed pilot how much of failure Iranian defenses are
You repeatedly called Iran's defenses being taken down in places or being nonexistent "unsubstantiated", how is that not downplaying the severity of what happened? So finally you pull up one comment that actually comes close to what you are saying I was totally fully doing. I can concede (that thing you are incapable of doing) that all and utterly are hyperbolic and I take that back. But that does not mean that the defenses did not have major failures. Shooting down an Israel pilot among the totality of that attack does not mean they did not fail as a defense.
I commented that Iran was not going to collapse in response to someone BEFORE I ever responded to you. So I have no idea how you decided that I claimed people are right that Iran would collapse. One person was being actually doomer and I had already responded to them and disagreed with them. Which is why I was asking why you were so adamant that the thread was full of doomerism. One person said iran could collapse, and you didn't even respond to them. You vague posted and effectively lumped EVERYONE but yourself as doomers. That is what I was defending.
And frankly I feel vindicated, because what I was defending was Marmalade's analysis more than anything. And look at the modlog and the horrible shit Thomas said to them. Vitriolic shit calling them a fed and a doomer spreading propaganda. THAT is what my concern was. I was not fucking dooming, I was pushing back at the mob mentality that within a few hours DID lead to someone attacking one of our posters and repeatedly misgendering them.
THAT is why I don't like your initial comment, because this generalized "wow everyone is just dooming, what idiots" shit emboldens that kind of behavior. I have known you for years, I KNOW you would never do that, but I know damn well that that kind of vague posting complaining and accusation shit does make room for that shit. I have been on both sides of that in my life. Respond to comments, don't make the second comment thread within the hour that is just complaining about doomers. Again it becomes "woke" complaining, and suddenly someone starts taking "doomerism" to mean they can just harass someone free of consequence.
Cool and I already acknowledged Iranian incompetence is a thing and they've suffered losses, now we can move on
Four hours is an eternity in the age of satellites, drones, stand-off strikes and hypersonic missiles. No response at all from Iran in four hours is a sign of total system chaos
A 1000km gulf IS A 1000KM GULF, satellites, drones and missiles are not are things you can haphazardly lop a thousand kilos away and hope to hit anything of relevance, either you prepare them beforehand in which case they're wide open to a first strike or you squirrel them away in hidden places for safety, in which case it is gonna take hours to unhide them and prepare for launch
The timescale plus effectiveness of a military action is proportional to its operational area and depth
I actually do agree with you on this. With the strikes on several missile launch sites, and damage to radar systems, Iran is going to check damages first, make sure they are safe to launch, before they start anything. it sucks, but you don't want to fire what is available in one wave only to find out during the next one that several sites still cannot launch. It would be negligent to not do proper damage analysis
If people are expecting collapse that is crazy. They worst case scenario here is Iran's offensive capabilities and means of threatening Israel are fucked. NOT their ability to function as a state. I don't want to be braggadocios, but they survived the Iran-Iraq war. Strain from bombings is not going to break what didn't break during a decade of fucking trench warfare hell and atrocities abound.
I do wonder how far Israel thinks they can get with this though.
Yeah Iran has a lot of options to respond. It's just a matter of if they commit. And right now I don't see a lot of reasons not to commit to a response.
I think it's mostly that they are having to reshuffle command structure while figuring out where and how they can retaliate since the means of doing so are being targeted en masse and many won't be operational because of it. Knowing who calls the shots and what is available to shoot is surely really challenging especially if Israel's strikes are ongoing.
Why were they not on full readiness with orders to respond against certain targets if attacked? They knew this strike was coming for weeks. Missiles should have been flying as soon as the jets were in the air pinging on radar. I don't know how to see this any way other then extreme complacency from Iranian leadership. They seemed to only half-ass things and think somewhere in the back of their mind they could just talk and stall their way out of this, when they should know better what the zionist entity is.
I totally agree, it's a huge shame. I can only imagine how they tried to justify it but to be sitting in your apartments after Israel already said they were gonna do this ?
Another explanation is that there are enough compromised/bought off people in just the right positions. The enemy is within.
After Syria I don’t doubt this. Sanction a country until you cripple its economy then buy out the comprador elements for a bargain. Colonizers do it for a reason, because it works.
I said when Nasrallah died that the common demoninator in a lot of the successful decapitation strikes in Lebanon and Syria was the presence of IRGC officials. I have long suspected that they are possibly the weak link opsec wise in the Resistance.
Well that's kind of the point of the decapitation strikes, no?
Of course, just saying why a response is taking so long. If they had planned for this in the way z poster described below, they would have been ready despite that but I guess they didn't do that for some reason
Good luck making this stick because people still try to compare a giant eastern European country that borders friendly countries to a Chinese island in the Pacific lol
My view is entirely vibes, but I always feel like life/events/some evil god has a tendency to see people here trying to reassure others that all is not lost, and then proceed to rig things in Israel's favor just as a "fuck you," even if it defies all logic and material analysis in the process.