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Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Trump really hates dogs
BREAKING: Trump called for CNN to “throw out” Natasha Bertrand “like a dog” and demanded her firing for reporting on intelligence that Iran’s nuclear sites weren’t completely wiped out.
He accused her of pushing “fake news” and trying to damage the reputation of U.S. pilots.
Honestly I'm all for it. Let the stupid fucker throw anyone who denies his big beautiful bombing was a victory go the streets.
Next time some rabid warmonger tries telling him they gotta nuke iran again he'll be like "nope, we already did that, i remember it well. beautiful bombs. big bombs, the best" the whole time an Iranian ICBM bursts through the stratosphere on re-entry to airburst over Langley VA.
They call this "the Hillary"
Chuck Schumer hospitalized for dehydration
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was hospitalized on Wednesday morning after becoming lightheaded at the gym, a spokesperson told Axios.
He was treated for dehydration and is back at work in the Capitol, the spokesperson said.
You know what boils my blood, kamala can still show her face and people let her. People started shitting on Hillary as soon as she lost. It makes sense, she is the most responsible for 2016 defeat and she should fuck off. Punch up. But it feels like things have regressed. Kamala got even worse defeat and all the people who should have been sending death threats to her are praising her. People are blaming everyone except those in power. Libs love to cry about democracy and normalcy but this is not normal democracy. This is power worshipping. This is not about her reactionary beliefs. I would be okay if she was hated after losing with real leftist policies too.
Yesterday, Palestinian Tribes, Clans, and Families announced their intention to secure aid convoys to ensure their safe delivery to needy families. They warned citizens at gathering at aid points, "death traps," as over 500 martyrs have ascended at these distribution points in recent weeks.
They emphasized that aid would be distributed through official international channels to guarantee fair and dignified access for all, vowing that any attempt to loot the aid would be considered a crime against the Palestinian people.
Today, we confirm that the clans and tribes successfully secured the entry of aid trucks into Gaza City and the northern Strip. Flour, food aid, and medicines were delivered to organizations for distribution.
The High Commission for Clan Affairs considered the actions a historic stance of honor and national responsibility.
Akef al-Masri, of the Clan Affairs Commission stated that this was just the "first step in a series of upcoming steps." He promised the Palestinian people more "surprises in the coming days," asserting that joint national efforts will lead to more aid entering the besieged Strip. He reiterated that the Palestinian clans will continue to work tirelessly to break the siege and secure the needs of the population.
He stressed that the clans "will not stand idly by in the face of our people's suffering, and will continue to work with all their energy to secure people's needs and break the siege imposed on them in every possible way."
The only thing I can say is that these are the most heroic people in the world.
Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Nasirzadeh arrived in China hours ago
“Given the urgent and urgent need for ground-based and air-based air defense, it is hoped that the authorities will make good use of the capacity created (according to some unofficial sources, a proposal from China) to fill these gaps.”
https://t.me/partisan2015/82958
Seems like Iran could be patching up the holes
Hebrew media has released new details on the resistance ambush against Israeli forces in south Gaza’s Khan Yunis, in which seven soldiers were burned alive in their troop carrier following an explosive attack claimed by Hamas’s armed wing.
“At exactly 5:30 pm yesterday, the first report came in about a fire breaking out in an armored personnel carrier (APC) of the POM type, belonging to the engineering forces. Initial investigations suggest that a militant approached the APC and attached an explosive device to it. The device detonated, causing the entire vehicle to catch fire,” Israeli journalist and army radio correspondent Doron Kadosh reported on 25 June.
“Military firefighting teams rushed to the scene to extinguish the fire in the APC. A D-9 bulldozer was brought in and dumped sand onto the vehicle in an attempt to smother the flames, but all firefighting efforts failed,” Kadosh added.
After failing to extinguish the flames, rescue forces towed the military vehicle to Israeli territory as it was still on fire with the soldiers inside.
“The fire was only extinguished once the vehicle had reached Israeli territory. Rescue teams and helicopters were dispatched to the scene, but none of the fighters survived. No one remained to be rescued from the wreckage. All seven soldiers were killed.”
Kadosh went on to say that it took several hours to identify the bodies of the seven Israeli soldiers.
Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
Media now really pushing the attack failure narrative. Which would be fine I guess since it is true... but clearly angling for another strike
"trump is so weak and thin-skinned" "yeah he always chickens out" "yeah his bombs are ass too"
normally wouldn't be so bad but im certain hes gonna accidentally get shown a tweet and nuke iraq... and the iran after realising he made a typo in his fury.
Update on Fordow. Israel went back and bombed the entrances and exits, and access roads, effectively entombing the facility. Even if the 12 GBU-57 MOPs didn't do the damage, the facility is entombed when combined with Iran filling the other entrances and exits with soil. The US did similar at Isfahan with Tomahawk land attack missiles.
Israel will likely seek a ceasefire agreement that keeps these facilities entombed, permanently, especially in the case of Isfahan where the underground facilities were not directly attacked, just the entrances, exits, and above ground facilities. There have been two big indications from Israeli sources leaning in this direction. First, this from Barak David at Axios. I'll quote the key passage:
Two Israeli officials also claimed that intelligence shows Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium is now buried beneath rubble at Isfahan and Fordow — and it's unclear whether Iran will be able to recover it in the near future.
Then this statement from the Israeli damage assessment, posted by Trump:
This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.
Alhamdulillah they got the APC footage. Video ~~coming shortly~~ on TankieTube
https://tankie.tube/w/qv9zpGm9CQvQxiJouzNQwG
Military correspondent for Israel's Channel 14 Hillel Biton-Rosen, citing a senior Israeli officer talking about the Khan Yunis ambush:
"The documentation is shameful, and to say the least, it does not add dignity to the IDF. The division commander was required, according to training, to run over the militants if they got too close, or at least shoot them with the machine gun on the Namer armored vehicle. This is not how a high-ranking officer is expected to behave on the battlefield."
Bloomberg - Jane Street Boss Says He Was Duped Into Funding AK-47s for Coup
The Israelis are now lying like Trump.
NYT
Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the Israeli military, said the damage caused to Iran’s nuclear program in 12 days of war was “not localized, but systemic.” In a video statement on Wednesday, Zamir said that Israel has determined that “Iran’s nuclear project suffered a severe, extensive, and deep blow, and was set back by years.” He also said Israel’s operations in Iran included those of “commando forces on the ground, who operated covertly deep inside enemy territory to secure operational freedom.”
And I'd really like to hear how the Israelis successfully bombed knowledge.
Every fucking day there is a massacre by gaza aid areas. Demonic entity
gives a congratulatory endorsement to Zohran