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Image is of Putin and Scholz sitting on opposite ends of a frighteningly long table back in 2022. Folks, the table is gonna get ten feet longer.


The latest round of US-Russian diplomacy is taking place on August 15th in Alaska, where Putin and Trump are meeting in-person to maybe try and bring an end to this godforsaken conflict. While I don't want to totally discount the possibility that they may come to an agreement - you truly never know! - there's a lot stacked against this encounter yielding much of anything.

Russia appears to have demanded a land swap; that Ukraine fully withdraw from Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts (in exchange for unspecified Russian gains, but probably parts of Sumy and Kharkov) as a precondition for a ceasefire that could perhaps lead to a permanent resolution of the conflict, and Ukraine seems completely unwilling to do anything of the sort, saying that even if they wanted to, the process of just giving up a couple oblasts would take significant time and require referendums. I say that Russia has appeared to demand it, because there's been a lot of confusion - probably in bad faith - about what Russian diplomats and Putin himself have said and what the demands even are. There are some who speculate that Trump will sell out Ukraine and blame Zelensky for refusing to agree with Russian demands, and there are others who say that this just the latest of many examples of the US and Russia meeting up with such fundamental differences that a deal is impossible, and that Trump fully expects to put sanctions on Russia after Putin declines some harebrained American scheme.

Anyway. After the summit, in late August, Putin is due to arrive for a visit to India, at Modi's invitation. Previously, I was unsure exactly what India would do in response to American sanctions pressure, and now we appear to be receiving an answer, as Modi has made public statements that suggest that he is only getting closer to Russia. Fascinatingly, Modi will soon make his first visit to China in seven years at the annual SCO summit at the end of August, and Putin will be heading to China too on September 3rd. There is an increasing amount of dismissal about the potential of BRICS (especially one that contains India), and that dismissal is certainly rather justified, but I am still deeply curious about what developments may occur as the global south braces to face the remaining ~85% of Trump's presidency.


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[–] companero@hexbear.net 56 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

China just revealed a bunch of new armored vehicles. Probably for their upcoming 80th anniversary Victory Day parade. All the manned ones have what appear to be fancy active protection systems.

Light/Airborne IFV: https://old.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1mrov5h/new_chinese_airborn_ifv/

Medium Tank: https://old.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1mrk54a/new_chinese_tank_for_upcoming_parade/

Medium IFV: https://old.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1mrlwmz/new_chinese_ifv_possibly_similar_hull_as_the_new/

UGV: https://old.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1mrurl9/seen_the_new_batch_of_leaked_chinese_tank_pics/

I wonder if they will commission aircraft carrier Fujian during the parade/celebrations as well xigma-male

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 12 points 14 hours ago

These look.. Fine?

Nothing special. Nothing super high tech. They look like vehicles designed to be good enough. I suspect a key aspect of the design decisions here are because they intend to export a shit load of them.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 9 points 16 hours ago (4 children)

Can't say I'm impressed, in light of the developments and revelations brought about by the Ukraine war, these vehicles will get torn to shreds by drone and drone-linked artillery warfare

The current meta of warfare is solidly against IFVs and these small glass cannon fire support systems, everything points to the need for further development in long-range missile technology, drones, anti-aircraft systems, mobile long-range artillery, anti-submarine defense, ship killer missiles and stealth air superiority fighters

It's like China saw the US Stryker/IFV fiasco and thought to themselves "Yeah, we should step on that rake too" total waste of resources

Is China planning to invade a small country and engage in intense urban counterinsurgency operations? Cause that's all these overgunned personnel carriers would be good for

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 3 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

Is China planning to invade a small country and engage in intense urban counterinsurgency operations?

Uh... fucking Taiwan, like the most obvious example? (now, admittedly Taiwan isn't that tiny, but most of it is forests and mountains - the population is mostly focused on a heavily-urbanized coastal strip)

Planning for a potential invasion of Taiwan is clearly something the PLA does, and is reflected in some other equipment choices - they're one of the few militaries actually still fielding a proper amphibious assault vehicle, a capability that even the US with its vaunted Marine Corps has massively declined on (after cancelling one program, they eventually finally managed to adopt a new one, but they only had 187 as of mid-2024, compared to at least 1500 for the Chinese equivalent, with all 1500 of those confirmed ones being way more heavily-armed than the ACV, and an unknown number of other variants that are lighter-armed)

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 8 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

I'm pretty sure these have been designed with an export focus. China may be pouring these into Africa in the near future and it kinda makes sense there.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 6 points 13 hours ago

That's a recipe for disaster, any asymmetric force with ATGMs would tear these things up and their expensive logistics and maintenance burden would give western backed forces a cost advantage

IFV doctrine asserts they fill their niche by either aiding massed tank formations or backing up infantry in urban settings, both roles largely discredited at this point and not applicable to the combat seen in the Sahel

What China should be sending are mobile mortar carriers, drones, MRAP vehicles, rocket artillery and a literal mountain of heavy infantry weapons

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 10 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago) (1 children)

The point of showing all these new equipments during the parade is to signal the national priority in shifting investment into the military industrial sector, as overcapacity in other industries and the broader economic downturn in China are already causing stagnation and unemployment.

You see it as a “waste of resources”, that might be correct, but from the government perspective, it’s job creation for the high youth unemployment. This isn’t anything new - after the 2008 GFC, China invested heavily in infrastructure building to stimulate the economy as a slump in Western consumption took a toll of the Chinese export-oriented economy. As a result, thousands of new cities were built but there are hardly enough people to live in them.

During that moment, it was crucial to prevent the economy from going into a recession (to keep people employed and the GDP numbers up), but the massive misallocation of capital and resources only becomes a problem years down the road and a major problem the government are dealing with right now.

The same happened also during the 2015 effort to reduce excess productive capacity in the export sector (light industries). To eliminate excess capacity, the government prioritized green technology and alternative (renewable) energy in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) to force factories and companies to shift investment. However, nobody expected that China develops at such rapid pace that even the green tech are making losses these days. Chinese solar panels already dominated 90% of the world’s market and the bitter price wars are making every company and their suppliers losing money. The tariffs imposed by foreign countries also made China’s EV difficult to gain profit, and exacerbated by a weak domestic consumption (massive subsidies were given out to entice people to trade in their cars, but the effect has reached diminishing return). So the solar panel/EV route is also on its way of consolidation and reduction of excess capacity.

So, as the infrastructure investment-led growth is winding down, and export-led growth is taking a hit from Trump’s ongoing tariffs, militarization is going to be the next phase in China’s national economic policy. Also understand that China isn’t doing this alone, the EU and the US arguably are militarizing at an even more intense pace.

We’re going to see a lot of excess military equipments over the next decade, and they have to be get rid of somehow eventually.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 4 points 13 hours ago (2 children)

I really don't think a IFV boondoggle is comparable to history's greatest city building project or the national green tech plan

If job creation for youths requires building useless deathtraps, then something has gone very wrong, if China is gearing up for industrial militarization, it makes no sense allocating industrial capacity to infamously overcomplex and logistics heavy vehicles like an IFV, let alone an entire catalog of them

No this stinks to high heaven of pet projects and reputations-at-stake following almost a decade of embarrassing results for the IFV concept

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 5 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

infamously overcomplex and logistics heavy vehicles like an IFV

Uh... what? The BMP-1 and 2 series, literally among the most famous IFVs, are around 13 and 14 tonnes respectively, and not all that complex - in fact, in terms of total Soviet production numbers, it seems like the BMP-1 & 2 are pretty comparable to the wheeled BTR-60 + 70 + 80/82. Now, Western IFVs are heavy and complex, but that's just everything Western, it's not necessarily an indictment of the whole concept.

Even the BMP-3, which packs a 100mm cannon in addition to the regular 30mm autocannon, is barely 19 tonnes, and again, hardly some ultra-complex vehicle. And Russia, you know, the country actually fighting in the Ukraine war which has supposedly proven IFVs to be useless, is still procuring large numbers of BMP-3s, and using them quite a bit. Now, they do seem to have given up on their developments of more Western-style IFVs like the Kurganets-25, and especially the T-15 Armata (which actually is ridiculously heavy and expensive), but if anything, that only further proves the point that it's Western IFVs that suck, while the Soviet style is still chugging along just fine.

And China's armored vehicles are more in keeping with the Soviet style than the Western one, although generally somewhat heavier - the ZBD-04 is essentially their take on the BMP-3 (same 100mm+30mm armament, a decent bit heavier in the ZBD-04A variant, but still lighter than modern Western IFVs), the ZBL-08 is a pretty regular 8x8 wheeled APC/IFV in a similar weight class to the ZBD-04, the latest ZBL-19 doesn't have much information available on it, and while there's some estimates placing it at 35 tonnes or even more, that doesn't really make sense given that it's supposed to also be amphibious, so I would assume it can't be that much heavier.


Overall, I don't see why this style of cheaper and lighter IFVs shouldn't still be invested in. You're falling into the same trap that "tanks are dead" discourse runs into, which is you're just looking at these vehicles being vulnerable and concluding that it means they're obsolete - but what actually determines the obsolescence of a given piece of equipment is going to be whether the role it fulfills is still relevant. If that job still has to be done, and there's nothing else to do it better, then tough luck, however risky and vulnerable, the job has to be done. Planes in WW2 were incredibly vulnerable, and over a hundred thousand were lost by both the Allies and the Axis - but they didn't just give up on the whole concept of combat aircraft, because they obviously still fulfilled a valuable role which couldn't be carried out by anything else. Now, battleships after WW2 did become obsolete - because the role of a big ship with a bunch of guns and a ton of armor was, indeed, no longer relevant in a world where planes launched from carriers (and later also missiles launched from guided-missile destroyers and cruisers) would now be doing the fighting, with the ships not even necessarily being in range to actually shoot at one another with guns.

The role of armored transport for infantry is obviously still relevant. You're also being misled here by sloppy interpretation of the evidence - the Ukraine war has actually showed that armored vehicles can sometimes survive numerous drone hits, there are methods of making them more resistant, and drone teams have a very low rate of fire. Many vehicles are only hit once or twice, survive, and then just move on, perhaps with somewhat reduced functionality, but the propaganda footage obviously doesn't show this - it shows the last impact that actually took the vehicle out, not the whole half-hour-long engagement that eventually led to destruction, and obviously not the many instances of a vehicle surviving and then just driving away. Additionally, drone teams can be overwhelmed, by launching multiple attacks at different locations, or massing a ton of equipment in one attack - even if the drones themselves are very cheap and plentiful, there still need to be human personnel piloting them, and there's only so many of them around. So far, the effort in exploiting AI capabilities to facilitate fully autonomous drones has not borne fruit, so the limit of how many drones can actually be flown at a given moment of time will remain - and thus, vehicles will sometimes be able to slip through the drone "net" as it were.


You're also assuming that a vehicle shown off at an expo means there's already production lines being set up, which is just... not how things work. These are mostly individual prototypes, trying to gauge interest before manufacturing is invested in. See all the vehicles that Russia has shown off, some of which I've referenced - none of them had actually entered large-scale production, the Russians found out in actual combat experience that they wouldn't work out, and mostly abandoned them to re-focus on stuff that does work. Vaporware is, like, most of the stuff shown off at military expos.

In this case, these are vehicles targeted at export, and not necessarily reflective of what the PLA is actually planning on using. China exports a whole lot of equipment that they themselves don't use. See for example the VN20 heavy IFV - there's no indication that the PLA has interest in something like that, it's purely an export product, and hey, if you can bilk the Saudis or some other country like that out of some of the way-too-much money they have on their hands, go for it. And if not - it's just one or a handful of prototypes, it doesn't cost that much, and even R&D that leads to unsuccessful products can still bring about other useful knowledge as a result.

Now, in another comment you also made the point that "What China should be sending are mobile mortar carriers, drones, MRAP vehicles, rocket artillery and a literal mountain of heavy infantry weapons", which is also... kind of baffling. It's the client who determines what to buy, and what a company or country designs for export will reflect such market trends, China does also make all the things you've mentioned (in fact, if by "heavy infantry weapons" you mean things like ATGMs, grenade launchers, .50 cal machine guns, then China's probably the world leader in those), but if their clients are deciding to keep buying supposedly useless IFVs... that's on them, not somehow on China.

They've weighed their needs, considered their situation, and decided what to buy - China just provides it, they can't do the thinking and planning in other governments' place. The Soviets tried that - and their meddling in various resistance movements' doctrines and insisting on imposing their methodology focusing on conventional mechanized warfare wasn't particularly successful, and led to many such movements turning Maoist rather than ML, as Mao had specifically developed his strategic ideas after Soviet advisors led the Chinese communists to disaster.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 6 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

Sure I would prefer China to invest in social welfare and providing free healthcare and high quality education to the people (600 million rural population still largely excluded from the improved living standards in the rest of the country, despite boasting about poverty alleviation above global threshold).

However, this would require China to raise income for the common people to increase domestic consumption and stimulate the economy from within. The neoliberal ideology necessarily precludes that from happening, having abdicated much of the economy (including high tech industries and infrastructure) to the private sector and local governments (decentralization) and the central government only retained its leverage in public sector like defense, where huge spending can occur.

For example, China has a lot of potential in playing a major role in democratizing green technology but the reliance on private sector and neoclassical economics are causing many of these companies to be locked in bitter competition to gain profits (or to kill off their competitors in a race to the bottom price cuts) rather than having a strategic national level coordination to grow these sectors to address climate change on a global level (such as sharing the technology with Global South countries especially those in Africa).

This is not just a China problem but many other Global South countries have their governments consulted by such neoclassical educated policymakers who graduated from prestigious Western universities. And it is no coincidence that a global economic downturn is pushing all the major countries including the US and Europe into militarization, because that’s one of the few places their governments have direct intervention on.

To break out of this stalemate would require an emancipation from the ideological indoctrination under neoliberalism that had dominated the world since the 1990s, when the fall of the USSR opened the door wide open to the uncontrolled spread of neoliberal ideology across the world.

[–] geikei@hexbear.net 15 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Idk whats the point of this comment

For one these platforms were already in development before the ukraine war happened and China's armor platforms needed next gen production. Were they supposed to scrap them because drones? And on that matter its literally China, its absurd to think they are lagging behind in military drone tech, doctorine and applications, let alone productions. If drones is the name of the game, worrying that its chinas platforms that will get shredded by drones more so than their adverseries by chinese drones is a bit alternate reallity stuff. These paltforms arent even obsolete or anything. Thats a simplistic understanding of whet the ukraine war shows, a war that still sees them used en mass and nato proccuring new ones at increased rates.

China is also expanding as an arms exporter and a lot of countries need cheaper modern armor platforms.

China also massively invests in anti-drone, EW etc platforms and doctorine and we have little idea where these stand relatively.

Most importantly these platforms represent a very small focus and investment for the PLA. Ground forces are the bottom of the barrel in terms of R&D and platform development and introduction. PLAAR, PLAN, PLARF are getting all the important new toys en mass on a world leading build up and manufacturing scale. Even among these photos from stuff getting into Beijing in the last couple of days for the parade the tanks and armor are secondary news. There were like 6 not seen before types anti-ship and cruise missiles. New UACVs and CCAs, huge ICBMs and UUVs. New air defense systems without official designation.

There are gonna be dozens of missile, AD, Air and ground platforms in the parade the world hasnt officialy seen before, some no one had an idea they existed. You should be impressed cause you are getting everything you are asking for in your comment and more from PLA development and buildup. Sure we can be doomers here until China commissions the USS Enterprise or smth but other than that there is absolutely no reason to be a cynical even in stuff like this come on

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 3 points 15 hours ago

Were they supposed to scrap them because drones?

Yes, sunk cost fiascos are not justified because new discrediting developments happened after the project started, that's the definition of dogmatic rigidity in war planning and defense development

worrying that its chinas platforms that will get shredded by drones more so than their adverseries by chinese drones is a bit alternate reallity stuff

The point wasn't that China wouldn't or doesn't have drones, the point is those IFVs are going to get shredded by enemy drones, regardless of China's capacity in other weapon types

a war that still sees them used en mass and nato proccuring new ones at increased rates

Yeah, the dipshits of NATO are blind to the incredible casualty rates of their IFVs and refuse to adjust, the Russians also experienced severe IFV losses early in the war to Ukrainian drones and ATGMs, before they learnt to hold them back or phase them out in favor of long-range artillery and overwhelming drone coverage

China is also expanding as an arms exporter and a lot of countries need cheaper modern armor platforms.

It's a useless export and could lead to mal-development among the inventories of vulnerable nations who when faced with western aggression would see these oversized infantry taxis destroyed easily

Most importantly these platforms represent a very small focus and investment for the PLA

That's not a justification for the project, it's still wasted resources

There are gonna be dozens of missile, AD, Air and ground platforms in the parade the world hasnt officialy seen before, some no one had an idea they existed. You should be impressed cause you are getting everything you are asking for in your comment and more from PLA development and buildup

I'm not dismissing the entire Chinese defense industry, I'm trashing a single badly thought out project, even the Chinese will occasionally make mistakes concerning weapon development, tho the fact this project got the greenlight, proves there's some serious rigidity and ignorance among top brass concerning modern developments in armored warfare

[–] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)
[–] miz@hexbear.net 22 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

Reddit links were detected in your comment.

maybe it's just me but this feels very judgmental

[–] Horse@lemmygrad.ml 27 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

Reddit links were detected in your comment. This incident has been logged.