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My one question, the weak jobs numbers make a lot of sense... what on earth caused the crazy inflated past numbers? More I look at it the more confused I get, if she's fired for being honest, was she dishonest in those projections, or did she have a lack of good data at the time?
I believe the original numbers were posted before the severity of the federal labor force dismissal was tallied. The jobs reports numbers are given as a net gain/loss, and while we had immediate data on how many people had applied for new jobs, the WH was cagey about how many people had been fired. The net gain was adjusted down from a few hundred thousand to just 13,000.
The other side is that tariffs and trade "negotiations" are all over the place. You can't really integrate that into your model when they're changing on a day to day basis.
I suspect that Trump's screwing with the economy is so bad that it's messing with their models.
These data are released on the first of each month. That's not a lot of time to tabulate, across all employers across the whole country, all the people hired and fired during the month. That's why they call the 2 previous months 'preliminary.' They're usually pretty good at estimating, and adjusting their estimates for the usual sources of error, but when conditions change dramatically, those fudge factors aren't so good.
So, if you've got a President out there making wild, often contradictory claims three times a week, market traders and corporate execs trying to plan based on those announcements, or just put off by the uncertainty, then you should expect 'preliminary' statistics to be worse guesses than usual.