this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2025
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Yes, that's generally how a Bayesian agent would determine the extent to which an institution is trustworthy. A failed attempt to hide "bad news" would be stronger evidence that an institution is not trustworthy than a frank admission is, but that frank admission is still a reason to revise one's estimate of trustworthiness downwards.
The missing piece is that hiding bad news should be harder. For example, if you're a researcher and all you claim from your research are the good news, people (and the ideal Bayesian agent) should immediately suspect "maybe they're hiding the bad news".