this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
190 points (100.0% liked)
news
24117 readers
836 users here now
Welcome to c/news! Please read the Hexbear Code of Conduct and remember... we're all comrades here.
Rules:
-- PLEASE KEEP POST TITLES INFORMATIVE --
-- Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed. --
-- All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. --
-- If you are citing a twitter post as news please include not just the twitter.com in your links but also nitter.net (or another Nitter instance). There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/libredirect/ or archive them as you would any other reactionary source using e.g. https://archive.today/ . Twitter screenshots still need to be sourced or they will be removed --
-- Mass tagging comm moderators across multiple posts like a broken markov chain bot will result in a comm ban--
-- Repeated consecutive posting of reactionary sources, fake news, misleading / outdated news, false alarms over ghoul deaths, and/or shitposts will result in a comm ban.--
-- Neglecting to use content warnings or NSFW when dealing with disturbing content will be removed until in compliance. Users who are consecutively reported due to failing to use content warnings or NSFW tags when commenting on or posting disturbing content will result in the user being banned. --
-- Using April 1st as an excuse to post fake headlines, like the resurrection of Kissinger while he is still fortunately dead, will result in the poster being thrown in the gamer gulag and be sentenced to play and beat trashy mobile games like 'Raid: Shadow Legends' in order to be rehabilitated back into general society. --
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
190
Bulletins and News Discussion from June 16th to June 22nd, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Heart
(hexbear.net)
Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Maybe it will all be revealed months or years from now, but the timing in the responses of the US and Isr*el feel very strange to me. As people on this site have pointed out, the US has been positioning forces in the Gulf for months now, with all the bombers being transferred in, and then all the staff being pulled out of embassies leading up to the Israeli attack, etc. Clearly the US knew shit was about to go down.
But then, why is the US waiting at least a whole week to step in (assuming they do), or why didn't Israel wait a little longer to strike if the US isn't quite ready yet? Is the US purposely letting Israel get a bloody nose as a casus belli to intervene and turn Iran into another Yemen, like they've always wanted? But then again, why even bother having a casus belli when no one besides the neocons/zionists in charge want to do this at all anyways? Was it all a severe miscalculation? Iran is heavily infiltrated by Mossad, so there's no way they don't know Iran's military capabilities, or the fact that there were people who could replace the officials they assassinated. I guess I'm just confused. Israel is literally built off this myth about being an unsinkable safe haven--getting battered by Iran seems very damaging for stability in the short and long term. I suppose we can only wait, fog of war and all that. It feels like the whole world is waiting for the other shoe to drop.
I do wonder if Israel took the wrong lesson from their experience with Hezbollah; as in, they believed that it was the assassination campaign that fundamentally weakened/constrained them and not the already present civil strife caused by Hezbollah being a state-within-a-state and then the pouring in of western agents putting pressure on them to stop.
So then Israel looks at that and goes "Okay, cool, all you need to do is knock out a few leaders and the whole thing comes crashing down," so they try that with Iran, and it doesn't work and couldn't work because that's not how Resistance organization operates, they aren't reliant on singular figures for operations, there are always replacements being trained and waiting in the wings, Nasrallah's assassination isn't how you (temporarily) brought down Hezbollah, you got the causes and effects mixed.
It would explain why they remain so inordinately hyperfocussed on these sorts of decapitation strikes ("Ohoho, will we take out Khamenei? Will we do that crippling blow? Oh, you'll just have to see! Maybe if you negotiate then we won't!") and their alleged effectiveness ("It'll end the war, not escalate it."). A very common theme of fascist governments is that they're repeatedly surprised by their enemy's capabilities because their ideology, at the very deepest levels, cannot see their enemies as human and with human intelligence. Like, if they could conceive of their enemies being capable of intelligent organizational skills and able to create plans that counter their own plans, then they wouldn't have that ideology in the first place because those two viewpoints cannot coexist.
I think there is something to be said for Israel assassinating Nasrallah though, that absolutely did help cripple Hezbollah. But Nasrallah was a unique case, dude was a living legend beloved the world over. Iran doesn't have anybody nearly as charismatic or legendary as Nasrallah, and right now that's oddly a good thing. Khamenei getting killed doesn't really change much at all.
It was certainly significant, not only because of Nasrallah being killed but because there were a number of other officials killed very quickly in succession (even Iran's fairly embarrassing performance so far in terms of assassinated officials isn't as bad as that), but the proof it didn't cause Hezbollah to implode into chaos and lack of communication and infighting or whatever Israel planned is that they held the southern border very well against Israel despite all that was going on at the time. Especially compared to Israeli performance invading Lebanon a couple decades earlier, where they got very far, very quickly. Hezbollah was then forced into a (rather one-sided) ceasefire afterwards due to Lebanon's internal tensions.
It's absolutely possible that Nasrallah and the other assassinated figures would have handled this internal pressure better than the current leadership is doing, but that's the point where my lack of specific knowledge on the intricacies of Lebanese domestic politics comes into play.
Only thing Khamenei being killed would do is accelerate Iran's nuclear program
If they think they beat Hezbollah because of the decapitation strikes and not because of the genocidal terror bombing that undermined support for Hezbollah among the rest of the Lebanese population they're even stupider than they look
And genocidal terror bombing is just something they can't do in the Iranian case
or maybe that's where the US is supposed to come in
The Lebanese FM Abdallah Bou Habib said in CNN months ago that Nasrallah had already agreed to ceasefire at the time of his assassination.
Since it looks like the Israelis miscalculated due to their own ideological blinders, do you think the strategy now then is to just flatten Iran with the USAF and minimize the amount of damage done to the rest of world's economy?
There is no Plan. I think that's the problem they've run into, hence the indecision.
They are hoping Iran will fold and negotiate again (surrender). Trump is openly calling for it over and over, while standing right on the brink. It's very clear he's hesitant to go forward and thought they would surrender
This is an insane plan. Iran provides like 5% of global oil, and even severely "flattened" they can mine and control the strait of hormuz, which would shut down about 30-40% of the world's oil. They could knock out desalination plants in the gulf states and create tens or hundreds of millions of refugees.
Have to chalk a lot of it up to fascist myth of invulnerability. Israel, like the United States, has been huffing their own propaganda supply for too long. I think they were really expecting Iran to collapse fast—their drone "bases" and decapitation strike must have been years, even decades, in the making. Their strikes on Friday were spectacular and devastating, I think they really expected that to be all it took. But Iran didn't topple, and now it's slowly but surely depleting their stocks of defenses, and they're a bit lost as to what to do next. You can't repeat the successes of last week, and all the preparation and grooming of various assets and intelligence is now down the drain. Meanwhile, I think Trump is paralysed with indecision. The Pentagon wants to go in and "finish the job," all the assets are in place, but Trump knows it will be vastly unpopular with his base and I'm not sure if he can bring himself to swallow that.
His first real political success was hammering Bush and the neocons over the Iraq war, and despite reality that's remained a big pillar of his remaining support. And now he's about to do a bigger, riskier, more expensive, less popular version of the same thing? This will be a disaster politically, and he knows it.
Trump has significantly declined mentally since then, I think it’s risky for anyone to assume what he is thinking because it could be he is not
They want Iran to surrender because fighting it doesn't guarantee victory
I think Israel blew their load too early. The months-long deployment of military assets makes it clear they (the "West," collectively) planned to make a move on Iran, but they weren't fully prepared yet. All this concent manufacturing was supposed happen before the missiles started flying, but Israel wanted most of all to ensure nobody got cold feet and executed one of their signature moves - killing the negotiators - prematurely, to ensure they got their way. The media in Washington is in lockstep support for immediate war, but I have to imagine some high ranking members of the administration are genuinely pissed at Netenyahu and want him to sweat a bit, even if they are fully devoted to Israel and will proceed with the plan. They might just be sticking to their original schedule.
I think Trump personally does not mind letting Israel take the heat here. If state of the art American aircraft start getting blown out of the sky, he doesn't have to take responsibility for it, while if the Iranians captured USAF pilots and held them hostage like they claim to have an Israeli pilot, it would be deeply humiliating.
My wild hunch is a lot of the disorder comes down to Trump. I assume the Israelis are spying on Trump 24/7 and getting fantastic intel because Trump has zero to no opsec. I wonder if he talks on a stock iPhone. I assume the Israelis figured they could manipulate President Imbecile to do what they wanted. But in their arrogance they forgot that Trump himself has no plans and never thinks.
Beyond that - he changes his mind every five minutes. And because he has no ideology - he doesn't care what the US does. He doesn't have any interest in listening to anybody about anything. I bet if the Pentagon goes out of its way to make everything into just ~5 bullet points yet Trump still isn't paying any attention. I'm not saying Trump can't be manipulated. I'm sure his staff gets him to do stuff simply by convincing Trump that it was his idea to begin with.
Trump is also a fool who loves to play president. By that I mean - he's like a vain actor who wants maximum attention all the time. Like his quasi-impromptu press conference today. The media is yelling out questions and he knows he's the most important person in the world when it comes to Iran. The right thing for Trump is what keeps him happy - whatever that black hole of a brain is telling itself. Dubya loved being the decider. I think Trump is most happy keeping people in suspense and keeping them waiting for his big reveal.
Trump probably wants to do something strong and powerful like "hit Fordo" but he knows that will lead to war. So he keeps refusing to make a final decision.
Damn. I feel like you synthesized his whole ethos down with this line. He's a showman, afterall!
No this build up has happened over the last 3 days. Transfer of 30+ fuelling tankes from mainland US went to Europe and now they're being distributed to Middle East. Then fighters + more tankers were sent over in the last 24 hours.
Very much feels like they are moving quickly with something they had not intended to do.
This has all occurred because a vote was about to happen in Israel to disband the government because they wanted to conscript Haredi Jews (who are immune to mandatory service). Israel began this campaign on the same day. The vote for it has been shelved since. This entire thing has been about maintaining the existing far-right Netanyahu-led government.
Hmm, I see. This seems like a very high price to pay but I suppose Israel's leadership is completely drunk off fascist ideology so rationality is out the window anyways.
They are forced into progressively riskier strategic moves to cover for the last one. It's exactly like when you tell a lie that you end up having to patch over with a bigger lie and you're stuck stacking up the bullshit till the tower crumbles.
It’s going to turn out that someone close to Trump made a bet on the stock market and needs the line to go one way or the other.
The world’s just a playground for the rich elites who are betting on their favorite scenarios and see who gets to make the most money out of it. What’s a few million people dying mean to them anyway?
the Capitalist occam's razor