Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18727221

TIM LENTON: I’m not the only climate scientist who would tell you that if we go to 3 degrees Celsius of warming later this century—which is roughly where we’re heading on current policies—or, if we’re unlucky, and the climate is more sensitive, and that turns out to be 4 degrees Celsius or even more, we see such fundamental changes in the habitability of large areas of the planet that we find it hard not to conclude that there could be some kind of major social disruption, and thus an economic breakdown.

You could think of it as a fifty-fifty chance of losing everything or having a major social collapse

For centuries, poets, scholars and theologians have flocked to Chinguetti, a trans-Saharan trading post home to more than a dozen libraries containing thousands of manuscripts.

But it now stands on the brink of oblivion. Shifting sands have long covered the ancient city’s 8th-century core and are encroaching on neighborhoods at its current edge. Residents say the desert is their destiny.

In 1990, a US Naval War College report found that “nearly all areas of operational effectiveness are threatened” by climate change. That was 35 years, around 70 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, and six presidential administrations ago. On Wednesday, a statement from the Department of Defense attributed to acting deputy Defense Secretary Robert Salesses said climate change is “woke.”

01:09 - Cliodynamics

03:23 - Isaac Asimov + Psychohistory

05:00 - Mathematical chaos

06:39 - Dennis Meadows + TGS Episode

07:08 - 2010 prediction about US political instability

08:33 - Social Complexity & Collapse research group

12:30 - The US productivity-pay gap + more info

14:46 - Number of billionaires in the US over time

16:20 - Who are the elites?

17:19 - Russian oligarchs

17:47 - Elite overproduction

19:18 - Immiseration

28:34 - 1929 stock market crash + 1870s US recession

29:29 - New Deal + American Civil War

30:47 - Iron law of oligarchy

31:48 - Early state formation

32:04 - The collapse of small-scale societies

36:06 - Declining life expectancy in US + in 2017

39:23 - Chartism in the UK

40:38 - Age of Revolutions, Taiping Civil War

41:00 - UK Reform Act of 1832

41:45 - Democracy in America

41:52 - Great Reforms of Alexander II

42:16 - 1917 Russian Revolution

44:22 - The Black Death

45:19 - Food prices and the French Revolution

46:06 - Trends in income inequality in different countries

48:42 - Jeremy Grantham + TGS Episode

49:47 - Impacts of the Black Death

52:21 - When AI comes for the elites

53:27 - Impact of AI on law jobs

Description from YT:

The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval?

In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history - and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.

How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation’s stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump’ moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability?

About Peter Turchin:

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.

Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown. Turchin has authored ten books. His most recent books are End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration and The Great Holocene Transformation (forthcoming).

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/164-peter-turchin

For most countries around the world, sourcing energy entirely from wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower by 2050 would reduce their energy needs and costs, improve air quality, and help slow climate change, according to a study in Environmental Science & Technology.

These benefits, the authors say, could be realized at a fraction of the cost of implementing technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air and capture it from stationary emitters like industrial smokestacks.

"If you spend $1 on carbon capture instead of on wind, water, and solar, you are increasing CO2, air pollution, energy requirements, energy costs, pipelines, and total social costs," said lead study author Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and Stanford School of Engineering.

This holds true even if zero-emission energy systems power the technology deployed to extract carbon dioxide, Jacobson added.

[...]

Archived

This is an opinionated piece by Megha Satyanarayana, now chief opinion editor at Scientific American and former scientist, Knight-Wallace Fellow, a cohort member of Poynter’s Leadership Academy for Women in Digital Media and a Maynard 200 Fellow.

This is the problem with the slew of research finding microscopic shards of plastic in our arteries, kidneys and livers, the findings that our oceans, food, soil and air are teeming with tiny bits of Tupperware. Scientists still don’t know what this plastic is doing to us. And because research takes time, while scientists are trying to answer question, we just keep inhaling, eating and drinking tiny pieces of plastic.

...

Everything that goes into our bodies gets filtered through our livers and kidneys, so maybe it’s not a big surprise that bits of plastic find their way into those organs. Same with our hearts; microplastics end up in our blood and can get stuck in our clogged arteries. But our brains are designed to keep things out, through something called the blood-brain barrier. The researchers behind the brain plastics study think the tiny shards of plastic hitch a ride on fat molecules to get inside brain cells. And what’s worse is how much microplastics the researchers think might be in a whole human brain: 10 grams. Imagine 2.5 teaspoons of sugar. Now sub in plastic. Gross.

...

Recently, a group of Italian researchers followed 257 people who had plaque in their carotid arteries. They found that 20 percent of the people in their study who had microplastic-laden plaque had had a heart attack, stroke or had died after almost three years, compared to 7.5 percent of the people who didn’t. In studies of cells, those with microplastics in them also tended to show biochemical signatures of inflammation. And those people who had microplastics in their carotid arteries also tended to show some of those same signatures more often than the people who didn’t.

...

I see pictures all the time of beaches covered in plastic pebbles, landfills overflowing with water bottles, and giant dumps of technology products with their sad beige plastic shells. Chemistry is a beautiful thing. When it comes to plastic, when are we going to hold the petrochemical industry accountable for this ugliness?

Archived

A new study shows that meltwater from glaciers on Svalbard releases methane into the atmosphere. Only a reduction of fossil fuel emissions can help improve the situation, experts warn.

Scientists in Norway have observed for the first time that meltwater from glaciers on Svalbard is helping to release ancient methane deep in the rocks into the atmosphere, Centre for ice, Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate (iC3) reported.

Methane is the most powerful greenhouse gas, with a warming potential 84 times greater than that of CO2 over a 20-year period, and has so far been responsible for around 30% of the current rise in global temperatures.

...

“The Svalbard methane reservoir is estimated to be up to 21,000 Pg of carbon. You can compare this to the fact that our current atmosphere only contains about 780 Pg of carbon. So the source of methane on Svalbard is seemingly limitless”, Dr Gabrielle Kleber [said, and adding] that the newly discovered mechanism by which methane is released into the atmosphere is a consequence of global warming:

This means that even when we're able to curtail our (human-made) emissions, we may still have these secondary effects that we've triggered and will continue to release carbon… It highlights the urgency for action, before we trigger too many of these processes that we cannot stop”.

...

Atchive : https://archive.is/kNtXv

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18473159

Archived

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) have released their H2 2024 biannual review of China’s coal projects, which finds that coal is still holding strong despite skyrocketing clean energy additions in 2024.

Even as China’s clean energy surged in 2024 and became a key economic driver, solar and wind utilisation dropped sharply in Q4 2024, which was not expected or explained by weather conditions, and coal remains strong, which ultimately goes against President Xi’s 2021 pledge to phase down coal over the following five years.

China approved 66.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with approvals picking up in the second half after a slower start to the year. At the same time, 94.5 GW of new coal power projects started construction and 3.3 GW of suspended projects resumed construction in 2024, the highest level since 2015, signalling a substantial number of new plants will come online in the next 2-3 years, further solidifying coal’s role in the power system.

...

Key findings:

• Coal power permits and new project activity remain high despite some signs of slowing. In 2024, 66.7 GW of new coal power capacity was permitted – lower than previous years but still well above the levels seen in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, new and revived coal power proposals totalled 68.9 GW, down from 117 GW in 2023 and 146 GW in 2022, suggesting a potential cooling in project initiation.
• Coal power construction starts reached their highest level since 2015. 94.5 GW of new coal capacity began construction, the most since 2015, highlighting continued momentum in project development despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge in 2021 to ‘strictly control coal power projects’. However, actual commissioning has slowed, with 30.5 GW coming online so far, down from 49.8 GW last year but in line with 2021 and 2022 levels.
• China’s coal power expansion contrasts with global trends. While China continues to add new capacity, the global coal fleet outside China shrank by 9.2 GW in 2024, reinforcing China’s dominant role in shaping the future of coal power. China now accounts for 93% of global construction starts for coal power in 2024.
• Long-term coal power contracts are reinforcing coal’s dominance at the expense of renewables. Electricity buyers locked into long-term coal power contracts face penalties if they fail to purchase contracted volumes, discouraging them from prioritising clean energy. With new coal capacity coming online, guaranteed operating hours under pre-signed agreements further limit grid space for renewables, delaying the transition to a cleaner energy mix.
• Coal mining companies are playing a dominant role in financing new coal power projects. In 2024, more than 75% of newly approved coal power capacity was backed by coal mining companies or energy groups with coal mining operations, artificially driving up coal demand even when market fundamentals do not justify it. This not only reinforces reliance on coal but also risks undermining central government policy targets for curbing coal consumption and accelerating the energy transition.
• Despite policy intentions for coal power to support renewable integration, 2024 approvals show a shift away from this role, with many projects justified by local governments based on economic development and local energy security instead. While some policies promote coal power flexibility retrofits, long-term contracts and the inherent limitations of coal plants regarding low-load operation and intra-day cycling discourage coal plants from performing a true regulating function.

I see little acceptance and little planning. Just... blame immigrants, and grow the economy, that seems to be the mantra that's won out.

Having risen out of obscure boards on 4chan and Reddit, the alt-right is a right-wing extremist movement that’s mostly decentralized. Despite this, they have become incredibly pervasive, not through logical argument, but through operating in a way that makes spotting and opposing them particularly tricky. This post shall act as a brief look into some of the tactics they employ, and how leftists can effectively counter them.

1. The Lulz

2. Never On The Defensive

3. I Decide What You Believe

4. Whataboutism

Let me be clear, I certainly trust the climate scientists of groups 1 and 2 of the IPCC, but I am highly critical of the third working group that assesses options for the mitigation of the climate crisis. They are obsessed with technology. There are also good elements in their work, but in their latest report they constantly refer to new technologies that do not yet exist or are overvalued, such as hydrogen, CCS and bioenergy (BECCS).

Japan’s rice stockpiles had already depleted after record-breaking temperatures affected the 2023 crop. Stockpiles shrank again last year, partly due to a rise in consumption caused by record numbers of tourists. Supplies were also hit by panic buying in the wake of typhoon and earthquake warnings, forcing some retailers to restrict sales.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18397612

Archived

China’s emissions of key super-polluting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants now represent more than 20 per cent of the global total.

In a newly published study, Xiaoyi Hu and colleagues reported on new observations of three of the main HFCs in use today – HFC-125, HFC-134a and HFC-143a – showing that emissions had increased to 206.4 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2022.

This is equivalent to the emissions from more than 500 natural gas-fired power plants in a single year.

And the threat this poses to the planet’s climate could worsen as China’s requirement to cap its HFC use under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol actually gives it room to increase its emissions.

The Kigali Amendment requires a gradual phase-down of the production and consumption of HFCs, highly potent greenhouse gases used primarily in refrigeration and air-conditioning. As a developing country, China was required to cap its HFC use in 2024 at a baseline level and reduce it by 10 per cent by 2029.

However, China’s 2023 consumption of HFCs was 769.4 million tonnes, which amounts to only 85 per cent of the actual baseline cap – meaning that under the current rules, the country can actually increase its consumption (and therefore emissions) by 15 per cent.

EIA UK Climate Campaign Lead Clare Perry said: “The baseline calculation under the Kigali Amendment provides too much room for growth and takes away some of the ambition from this important global agreement.

“Even in four years from now, when a 10 per cent reduction from the baseline is required, China can actually increase HFC use from current levels by some 45.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – and the next reduction step does not occur until 2035.

“This is untenable given we are facing a global climate crisis and urgently need to cut all greenhouse gas emissions this decade.

“China is the world’s leading producer of these gases and also the leading manufacturer of the equipment that uses them. It’s in a prime position to take ambitious steps to move away from reliance on these dangerous polluting fluorochemicals, which have not only punched a huge hole in the ozone layer causing hundreds of millions of skin cancer cases and untold environmental damage, but are responsible for 12 per cent of global warming to date.”

The study utilised observations from a station in Changdao, China, giving researchers access to more accurate monitoring of emissions from northern China, where most of the fluorochemical industry is based.

Perry welcomed the study and highlighted the importance of accurate regional and global monitoring data, but warned that the current global regulation of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol was insufficient to ensure the rapid emissions reductions needed to secure a safe climate.

EIA calls on China and other parties to the Montreal Protocol to follow the lead of the European Union and accelerate action to phase out HFCs.

archive https://archive.is/0vRL2