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A debt default has been long in coming since Western sanctions created payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome
Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday, according to holders of the bonds. The day marks the expiration of a 30-day grace period since the country was due to pay the equivalent of $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.
The default has been long in coming since the West all but unplugged Russia from the global financial system, creating payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome. It wasn’t expected to cause any immediate ripple effects in markets or Russia’s economy. Russian bonds have traded for pennies on the dollar since days after the invasion, a sign that investors believed default was probable.
Russia last failed to pay its foreign borrowing during the Bolshevik Revolution when Vladimir Lenin, the newly installed communist leader, repudiated the debt of the Russian Empire. Russia defaulted on its ruble-denominated bonds during a financial crisis in 1998, but it was able to stay current with its overseas debt at the time.
Litigation over the lack of payment could span years. Russia has accused the West of manufacturing an artificial default, and has gone to great lengths in recent months to route money in roundabout ways to get the required payments into the hands of bondholders.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Thursday said Western nations created barriers in order to “hang the label ‘default’” on Russia and called the situation a farce.
Russia has plenty of money from oil and gas sales to pay its foreign debts, which are relatively small compared with the size of its economy. But allied Western governments have blocked the Kremlin’s ability to tap foreign bank accounts or use cross-border payment networks to move money.
The Treasury Department last month let a prior sanctions exemption expire that had allowed U.S. banks and investors to process and receive payments on existing Russian bonds.
Because Russia has the money and intent to pay, its default is expected to pose unique legal challenges. Once the grace period is breached, bond investors can declare a default. Russia will claim its obligations were fulfilled. Unusual for most sovereign bonds, Russia’s don’t specify a jurisdiction to decide disputes. Lawyers say English or U.S. courts are likely venues to decide who is right.
The first step is for holders of 25% of the bonds to agree to invoke the so-called acceleration clause, which allows them to demand immediate repayment on the bonds’ outstanding amount. Bondholders have three years to bring claims against Russia to court.
“This is the messiest and most legally uncertain case of sovereign default that I can think of,” said Mark Weidemaier, a sovereign-debt specialist and law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “That’s got to be one of many things that makes investors nervous when they think about the prospect of suing the Russian government.”
One investor said clearinghouse Euroclear received funds for the May interest payments just before the Treasury’s exemption expiration. But the funds were frozen there because of sanctions, unable to be forwarded to his account. Lawyers say the bond documents are unclear over whether payments that reached the clearinghouse, but not the bondholder account, would constitute a formal default.
A Euroclear spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russia last week codified plans to pay bondholders in rubles under a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin. Russia will send ruble payments to accounts for foreign bondholders at unsanctioned Russian banks. Foreign investors could then convert the rubles into foreign currencies.
The Russian Finance Ministry said it made roughly $400 million in payments on Thursday and Friday to bondholders under the new mechanism.
Bondholders will struggle to move the money out of Russia without breaching Western sanctions. The payments pass through Russia’s National Settlement Depository, which has been sanctioned by the European Union. And the U.S. has barred American banks from processing Russian debt payments since late May, meaning many investors won’t be able to easily repatriate the funds.
In theory, creditors could try to seize Russian assets abroad, though it is unclear what they might go after. Some investors have suggested they might claim frozen central-bank reserves or oligarchs’ assets. Bondholders of Venezuelan debt sought assets of a state-owned oil refiner after the country’s default. In 2013, Argentina hired a private jet for the then-president’s trip to Asia and the Middle East because of the risk of creditors seizing the official aircraft.
“I suspect, remembering what happened with Argentina, that the Americans would be keen to have creditors chasing Russian assets all over the world,” said Paul McNamara, an emerging-market fund manager at GAM. “It’s basically contracting out the job of going after Russian assets.”
The default isn’t expected to have a widespread impact on Russia’s economy. Russia reduced foreign borrowing in recent years, making itself less reliant on foreign capital. In the longer term, the default will make it harder for Russia to re-enter international financial markets.
“Hydrocarbon prices are sky high, so at the moment they don’t need to borrow,” said Tatiana Orlova, lead emerging markets economist at Oxford Economics. But Russia’s energy-focused economy is vulnerable. Russia “would need to have an ability to borrow if oil prices were to come down,” said Ms. Orlova.
Investors who hold the bonds say they are planning to take a more patient approach, expecting that Russia will eventually resume payments if sanctions ease.
“The market approach will be laying low. You might have creditors committees just to discuss and know who holds what,” said Kaan Nazli, a bond portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman Group.
Moscow missed $1.9 million in interest payments on a bond in April, triggering a credit-default swap insurance payout connected to those bonds. But the payment miss was too small to allow creditors to declare a wider default on most of Russia’s outstanding foreign currency debt.
I'm curious on how you'd implement solutions
Some universities are more prestigious. Okay, but how do you just stop the reputation of a school from rising above others? If a school produces more talent and research output and the scientific community and public picks up on that, how do you stop their reputation from getting better?
On LGBTQ rights: Have you read about Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs or something similar? Basic needs are met first, then safety, then societal and personal needs. Countries and societies operate on the same level. Some of the West is able to progress more on some things like LGBTQ rights because their material conditions are already extremely high. Cuba used to be extremely homophobic but they were able to focus on correcting that once the island's living standards stabilized. I'm sure you know how many poor people there are in China. The government is focused on material conditions and economic growth/stability first. You can't solve everything at once. Time and resources are not unlimited. You can criticize the lack of LGBTQ progress if China becomes a developed country for years and still doesn't improve. It's the same reason why communists don't blame other imperialized countries for being anti LGBTQ. If your country falls to imperialism who cares if your country is a gay paradise, everybody is fucked, including the LGBTQ people. Do you not support Palestine, Afghanistan, etc. Because they are extremely anti LGBTQ?
On 996: It blows but socialist countries have always worked very hard (Soviets regularly worked ~60 hours at first) to catch up to the imperialists. Also as somebody who works in an industry in the West that also see long hours, it's not as simple as just waving a hand to stop it. If there's a project that needs to be delivered by a deadline because of poor planning, occasionally 40+ hours is necessary. If somebody wants to get promoted quickly and voluntarily works long hours, you can't stop them unless your manager fires them. Oh but then since this one person works longer hours, other team members don't want to look bad or fall behind so they also start working longer hours to keep up. How do you stop this behavior? The truth is Chinese people are culturally extremely hard working. Of course there are many managers that force long hours but I know many Chinese managers do it in a way that's "legal". They encourage harder workers by promoting them. They discourage healthy work hours by blocking their career growth by giving them low impact and low visibility projects
How do you just magically stop this? It's extremely difficult to just create massive societal changes overnight. It takes decades to do