this post was submitted on 12 May 2025
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Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.


It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] companero@hexbear.net 43 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Zelensky met Erdogan in Ankara while Russia-Ukraine negotiations are scheduled to be held pretty far away in Istanbul. Would be funny if he took this opportunity to call in his golden parachute and disappear.

Al Jazeera live feed

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 43 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

mysterious decoupling of crypto/gold/yields continues, while gold dropped like a stone in two weeks (by 10% to like 3200 from 3500, probably caused by india), crypto as a whole appreciated by 10% (to 3.4e12, together with dow, to be fair), dxy also rose (only by 4%), oil bounces around 65, so not danger zone to fracking. so we can assume people believe in usa economy once again sicko-wistful with notable exception of bond traders (still at 4.9 yields), long may they reign. * ah also atlanta super gdp-prediction tool switched back to growth, as i've warned about

now to real news: #beanwatch beanis is still in nothing ever happens zone, coffee/cocoa/soy are all in the same place as they were (370/10000/1050), cocoa and coffee still unusually expensive tho (2000/150 two years before).

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[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 42 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

dog-screm Leader of portuguese far-right party, Andre Ventura, gets epicly owned.....by a glass of water. It was on camera and it's kinda funny, he felt bad during a speech after drinking water for some reason and buckled over so the whole entourage came in to protect him from...something

Comparisions to bolsonaro came instantly but I'm sad to report that he's probably fine.

EDIT: It was gastroesophageal reflux episode with a hypertensive peak, he's fine. Note that mainstream news outlets, who sometimes put the blame on russia or tik tok for the raise of the far right, spent a lot of time on this nothing issue and brought on people from the party to comment on it. Pretty sure that not even the PM last month when he was hospitalized for a few hours, nor the communist party leader in 2022 who had to get heart surgery back then, got this amount of media attention.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 42 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Venezuela Achieves a Moral Victory: Maikelys Espinoza, a Toddler Kidnapped by the U.S., Returns Home - Telesur English

Article

President Maduro managed to rescue the two-year-old girl who was being held in a shelter without the protection of her parents. On Wednesday, Communications Minister Freddy Ñañez confirmed that Maikelys Espinoza Bernal returned to her homeland on a flight with 226 migrants who were repatriated from the U.S. to Venezuela.

This two-year-old girl became the center of an international controversy after being separated from her family by U.S, immigration authorities. Her parents, Yorely Bernal and Maiker Espinoza, who entered the U.S. in May 2024 seeking asylum, were deported separately. Accused of belonging to the Aragua Train gang, the little girl’s father was sent to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador, while Maikely’s mother was deported on a flight out of the U.S.

U.S. authorities arbitrarily detained these Venezuelan migrants and used ethnic profiling, as the accusations against them were based on their tattoos, which included cartoon characters and personal symbols, rather than any concrete evidence of criminal activity, as the Daily Beast recalled.

“The arrival of Maikelys Espinoza, the rescued girl who had been kidnapped by the U.S. government, is confirmed. Once the deportation process began, Maikelys was placed in a shelter where she remained for weeks without contact with her loved ones. These abuses sparked outrage both inside and outside the U.S.

Over the past few weeks, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has condemned the abuses against the Espinoza Bernal family as a violation of international law, accusing the United States government of kidnapping the two-year-old girl.

“Victory for justice! Maikelys Espinoza has returned to Venezuela, thanks to the tireless efforts of President Nicolas Maduro. A triumph for the Venezuelan people!,” stressed community communicator Ronald Tovar, referring to the new success achieved through the Return to the Homeland Plan.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 42 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

Just went over the photos of the debris of the missile that Yemen fired at Israel a few days ago, and it appears that instead of using the Palestine-2 missile (a Fattah/Kheibar Shekan variant that has been in use for some time), it now appears that Ansarallah/the Houthis in Yemen now have the Fattah-1 proper. The debris on the ground in Israel is an exact match of the Fattah-1, all screws and rivet holes match up exactly. The Fattah-1 is Iran's most advanced missile, so Iran is definitely increasing its support of Ansarallah. I'll post some pictures below showing this, as well as the original pictures for anyone who wants to do a better Photoshop job. There are even more similarities that I haven't highlighted, but that's because I have poor Photoshop skills.

Original pictures:

Intact Fattah 1:

Debris in Israel:

~~Also don't expect posts for a few days, I've been locked out of some accounts and lost a ton of sources, and I think I've been IP/device fingerprint banned from twitter, also called X nowadays. If it's a device fingerprint ban, I don't think that even a VPN will help me. It'll take a while to recover, however the sources are all public accounts mainly on twitter, albeit low follower obscure ones. If anyone on here still has a Twitter account (yeah I know it's a terrible website run by Musk, but unfortunately a lot of information is on there, I got the original images from twitter for example), feel free to send a private message if you want access to the sources or help in the recovery process.~~

Nevermind, twitter finally loaded for the first time in 10+ hours, and forced me to complete an extremely long 10 part capcha to prove I'm not a bot and remove my IP/device fingerprint ban. Still lost the original account, but I can create a new one at least.

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[–] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 41 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] ComradeSpahija@hexbear.net 40 points 1 month ago

After seeing this I looked a second at his account to see if I had missed another good post and boy did he serve us a banger at the start of the month.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 41 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

US Dollar appreciated a bit but not anywhere enough to offset much of the impact of the tariffs, still down around 6% from the Trump election pre-inaugration peak.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 41 points 1 month ago

The Result of special military operation must be long-term peace - Prensa Latina

Article

Moscow, May 18 (Prensa Latina) Russia considers that the necessary result of the special operation is long-term peace, guarantee of its security and protection of the interests of Russian speakers in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said today.

The head of state, who spoke to VGTRK journalist Pavel Zarubin, assured that Moscow has sufficient strength to complete the special military operation with the desired result. “That result is the elimination of the causes that provoked this crisis, the creation of conditions for long-term sustainable peace and ensuring the security of the Russian state,” he said.

Putin also stressed that it is necessary to ensure the interests of the Russian people in those territories. “Where people live who consider Russian their mother tongue and consider Russia their homeland,” he explained. Putin. Russia has been conducting a special military operation in Ukraine since February 24, 2022, Putin said, to protect the population from “genocide by the Kiev government” and to tackle the national security risks posed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's advance eastward.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 40 points 1 month ago (3 children)

President Gustavo Petro to Resubmit Labor Reform Referendum Amid Senate Fraud Allegations in Colombia - Telesur English

Article

Colombian President Gustavo Petro vows to resubmit his labor reform referendum to the Senate after denouncing fraud in the recent vote, calling on popular mobilization to defend workers’ rights and democratic participation.

President Gustavo Petro has announced his intention to resubmit the labor reform referendum to the Colombian Senate following what he and his allies describe as a fraudulent vote that blocked the popular consultation. The referendum, aimed at improving workers’ rights through 12 key questions, was narrowly rejected by the Senate with 49 votes against and 47 in favor.

Petro condemned the actions of conservative Senator Efraín Cepeda, accusing him of prematurely closing the vote to prevent the referendum’s approval and calling for the people to take a decisive role in the democratic process.

The rejection of the referendum was marked by intense controversy, with Interior Minister Armando Benedetti accusing Senate President Cepeda of manipulating the voting process. Benedetti claimed that Cepeda closed the voting registry while government-aligned senators were still trying to register their votes, effectively rigging the outcome against the labor reform initiative.

This maneuver followed an earlier attempt by conservative factions to revive a labor reform bill previously sunk in the Senate’s Seventh Committee, which Petro’s government had sought to bypass through the referendum.

In response to what he termed “fraud,” President Petro has called on unions, peasant organizations, indigenous groups, and youth committees to organize community councils and determine the next steps in defending workers’ rights and democratic participation. He emphasized that public forces should avoid repression, limiting their role to protecting institutional buildings and maintaining peace.

Efraín Cepeda has committed a possible crime, and the Supreme Court must investigate. The evidence suggests fraud, and the court will decide. I will once again exercise my constitutional and legal right to submit the referendum to the Senate, ensuring a fair vote. This time the people, the principal, will decide how to act before the Senate of the Republic, the mandated.

Petro’s call signals a strategic shift towards grassroots mobilization as a counterweight to legislative obstruction, reinforcing his government’s commitment to social justice and labor empowerment.

This latest setback highlights the ongoing struggle between Colombia’s progressive government and entrenched conservative interests resistant to Petro’s transformative agenda. The labor reform referendum was designed to restore and enhance protections for workers, addressing decades of neoliberal policies that have eroded labor rights.

Despite the Senate’s rejection, Petro’s administration remains determined to pursue reforms through popular participation and legislative channels, framing the fight as part of a broader movement for social and economic justice in Colombia.

President Petro’s resolve to resubmit the referendum and mobilize popular support underscores the critical moment facing Colombia’s leftist government as it confronts institutional barriers and conservative opposition intent on maintaining the status quo. The coming weeks will be decisive in shaping the future of labor rights and democratic engagement in the country.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 39 points 1 month ago

Bolivia: Luis Arce Surprisingly Abandons Presidential Race, Preaches Leftist Unity - agenzianova

The decision follows a long history of divisions within the Movement for Socialism (MAS)

Article

The President of Bolivia, Luis Arce, has announced that he will not run for office again in the elections scheduled for August 17. The decision, made public a few hours before registration for the presidential race opened, follows a long path of divisions within the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the party that has governed the country almost uninterruptedly for over 20 years. "Today I make known to the Bolivian people with absolute firmness my decision to withdraw my candidacy for the presidential elections next August," Arce said, calling for unity in his political party, to prevent the "fascist project" designed to "destroy the plurinational state" from winning. The appeal was especially directed at his predecessor, who was once a political ally, Evo Morales, who is seeking a new mandate despite the various legal impediments certified by the Constitutional Court. “From this stage I challenge former President Evo Morales not to insist on being a candidate for the presidency,” he said.

An economist, 61 years old, Arce has also long been responsible for a social and economic crisis in the country that has brought his government's approval ratings to their lowest levels in years. The crisis in the availability of the dollar, which the Central Bank has kept tied to a relatively stable exchange rate with the Bolivian for years, and the poor supply of fuel, crucial in a country whose structure makes road transport dominant, are at the root of numerous social protests, often resulting in prolonged closures of the main roads. A poll in view of the presidential elections, published at the end of March by the company Captura, assigned Arce about 1 percent of the preferences.

The hope of the incumbent president is that the unity of the left-wing forces, once united in the MAS and now divided into three segments, can be recomposed. In addition to those of Morales and Arce, who was for a long time Minister of Finance in the governments of the "cocalero" leader, there is in fact a third front that refers to Andronicus Rodriguez, president of the Senate who surprisingly launched his candidacy in recent days, when the head of state was still in the running. A decision that had opened controversy for the possible further fragmentation of the vote, but which today, in light of Morales' renunciation, could be less serious. The political fracture between Arce and Morales, the former considered distant from the leftist values ​​proclaimed by the latter, has led over time to the division of the MAS into two blocks, both in parliament and in the country, protagonists of intense political and legal clashes. Lastly, in November 2024, Evo was ousted from the party he had led for 27 years, forcing him to take refuge in a new political force – Evo Pueblo – which proclaims total distance from the MAS.

Morales has theoretically exhausted the maximum limit of presidential mandates recognized by the Constitution, having also lost a referendum that he had called precisely to overcome the obstacle, but he does not intend to give up the race, denouncing a maneuver against him orchestrated by the right. The indigenous leader is also the protagonist of a delicate judicial affair: accused of sexual violence against minors and human trafficking, he is the subject of an arrest warrant that has been evading for months, sheltered by his most loyal supporters in the region of Cochabamba, which has always been his political and electoral bastion. Not infrequently, protests against the government's actions have been confused with clashes between supporters of Arce and those of Morales, a leader whom the president accuses of wanting to act only to prolong his political trajectory to the detriment of the interests of the people.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 39 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Retvrn of the porky watch:

please be saudis pray-against (because i dunno what else happened since start of may to drop them, aside from oil prices)

*also little black pilled article https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/05/13/brics-nations-and-israel-hype-hope-and-helplessness/ , mainly concerned with south africa, but touches on everybody in brics re: isntreal

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