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I haven't seen anything - agg worker riots stretching from Spain to Poland, fascist party membership spikes in the face of Ukrainian refugees, sharp contractions in the German economy over energy shortages - that would define this as a win for any European proles. Maybe a few big arms manufacturers - Rolls-Royce and Lockheed Martin - come out ahead. But the lay European is eating shit right now.
The brutality of war never ceases to shock the conscience and terrify the soul.
But Europeans want this war to drag on because they think its going to "bleed Russia". Its the old Bushism "Fight them over there, so we don't have to fight them over here".
Well, I meant, a win compared to things getting unstable sooner in Russia.
But then would they? Most people to support RSFSR's transformation into modern Russia and democratization were communist after all. In 1996 CPRF represented basically all democratic opposition to Yeltsin. If they won (and it's a common theory, a bit forgotten in 2024, that they would if not for falsifications), how different would it be? Maybe the Chechen wars wouldn't be as bloody. Maybe the financial crisis of 1999 could be averted. Maybe their foreign policy inside former USSR would be more directed at preserving ties and not asserting dominance.
And oil prices hiking up in early 00s were not Putin's doing, so Russia still would have that period of growth. Maybe it would have a bit more Soviet-style laws and political mechanisms, like Ukraine still does. Doesn't seem too scary.
It's not what Azeris are capable of, it's rather trust into certain states on the globe.
Pogroms in Indian countryside may be something unexpected for them, but Artsakh - how many satellite images with sufficiently high resolution and how many reports do, say, US or French intelligence services have on every hour of its existence for a month before 19.09.23? And they didn't prevent it nor warn about it, not protest\condemn after. This means a greenlight and also implicit statement that Azeri understanding of territorial integrity is above ICJ rulings, above UN charter, above Kosovo as an example, above their own statements, above even agreements signed and in general above any civilized principle.
It's a bit harder to process, because a hegemon (or a group of such) is still a main guarantor of rules in any system. Which means there are no rules except for "might makes right". As we can see from Israel's actions now.
The issue with this is that it won't bleed Russia dry, while its military will become more competent.
Presumably, we wouldn't have seen the wholesale nationalization and subsequent fire sale of Russian state assets. It can't be overstated how badly Russia was basically looted, after they deregulated their export markets and had large parts of their economy liquidated by foreign investors.
The "Russia is an oversized gas station" line wasn't exactly untrue back in the mid-00s.
But the oil price jump was the direct result of our Iraq invasion. And the Iraq invasion was largely possible only after the US no longer had a USSR operating on a global scale as a counterweight. Also, Russian energy exports were a bandaid on a bleeding gut wound.
Its very possible that a CPRF-run Russia wouldn't be a net energy exporter but a manufacturing hub attempting to rival Germany and Japan. Far easier to believe a Russia that maintained its universities and laboratories and manufacturing hubs followed China's lead into the 21st century as a consumer production giant, rather than simply sending out big hoses full of fossil fuels.
It was harder to see when might was something western states projected outward to make things our flavor of right. Much more apparent when we're on the back foot and other countries are using their own boutique domestic medias to justify a war to their people.
That's something Europeans simply don't want to believe, because they still assume Russians are inferior and incompetent.
Much of that had already happened by then, one of the reasons for 1996 election dynamics. And I don't think there was possibility to make many of Soviet industries profitable or even functional. It was a complete collapse due to administrative rot.
However, that would be a couple fewer years of looting properties which could still be put to some use. Some Soviet plants died later in 90s or even in 00s, which means that they did successfully adjust to market economy.
While that is true, most of that oil wealth was misused, so in just a bit more transparent and democratic system it would be used more efficiently.
And Russia wouldn't be capable of acting as any kind of counterweight for like a decade in any case. So, if that's the main reason, it would still happen.
To rival is a strong word, but Russian manufacturing would still exist, and with it a different culture in the society. Which can't be overstated.
Rather it was harder to see not living somewhere in the ME or Latin America, or Indochina, reading a bit of history.
Now it's easier for me to see being part Armenian. The whole situation with "the West" pressuring Armenia for the same illegal concessions that T*rks do, including the ethnic cleansing part, just "graciously" throwing a few cents to accommodate refugees and not demanding outright surrender of Syunik, is eye-opening.
Well, the transition from 00s Web to today's Web looks like it just becoming clumsy, crappy and not cool. It doesn't seem like a well-planned operation or a result of consistent policy, but I think it is exactly that.
It may be very inefficient, but it adds centralization and vertical control to powerful governments which they lacked before. They now have ability to efficiently suppress any news or viewpoints or discourses they couldn't in paper media, without accepting responsibility for censorship, and without even spawning discussions of censorship, because of centralized social media where everything can be controlled.
As of Russia, it is simply very hard to believe that a state would spend 200+k lives and a lot of money just thrown out in broken hardware to teach its military to conduct warfare.
But that's exactly what happened. Instead of doing reforms and making things more efficiently, they preserved their power over Russia, their way of doing things, their culture as a kind of elites etc, while still achieving that goal with expenses they consider acceptable. Ukraine may start losing the war soon.
My point is - it was hard to believe for anyone, not just Europeans.