this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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I think this is a great point. A lot of seemingly inexplicable behavior on the part of various elements in Russia starts to make a lot more sense if you factor in the likelihood that they aren’t actually competent.
I find that every conspiracy theory falls apart if you just assume a normal level of incompetence and miscommunication.
What makes more sense, Putin playing some sort of masterful game where he looks incompetent, or he was actually arrogant enough to believe that his lapdog wouldn't turn on him, and never even considered that Prigozhin would march on Moscow?
Then Prigozhin just assumed that the regular army would turn around and join him. Bitch please, you aren't a war hero, you're a fucking mercenary murderer. Prigozhin takes the blame for committing atrocities all the time, both because he (and his men) do commit countless atrocities, but also because it's his job to take the blame.
It's like Eric Prince expecting loyalty from US servicemen because they are so impressed with how Blackwater runs.
So Putin, surprised as fuck (because everyone was) and on the back foot, threatens some families and cuts a deal with Prigozhin. Then sees the press eating him alive over it and is now trying to cover his ass again.
Apply this level of miscommunication and incompetence to any event is human history, and you likely have something resembling the truth.