what a shock, I'm sure no one saw that coming /s
this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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Are any other sources reporting this? I can't find any.
For the next few days it will be hard to have reliable sources of info regarding the non-coup because the FSB will work hard to keep infos secrets (mostly to push the putler narrative post non-coup that russia is united). We can only speculate, but based on putler way of doing things, we have to admit that doing a Navalny to prigozhin is the most putler thing to do...
I'm sure Prigozhin did. What the actual logic of the deal was I'm not so sure yet.
Oh wow, Putin lied? Well I would never have guessed....
Im really shocked /s
So much contradictory information coming out of Russiaβs government. They canβt find the least embarrassing story to put out. Because thereβs nothing thatβs not devastatingly humiliating.
Either way I donβt see how Wagner can continue to exist as it was, and Russia forces without Wagner have proven to be incompetent.
Regarding the failure of the coup, while exciting to watch, the fallout could have been much worse than the current situation in terms of global stability and Ukraine. Wagner and bunch of factions competing for nuclear arms, or increased commitment to the Ukraine war would have been a very possible outcome. Itβs clear that western governments are breathing a sigh of relief.
You pretty much nail it, there were an unconfirmed report of Wagner approaching a warehouse that holds tactical nukes (I really hope that remains a simple speculation.) If Wagner claimed the tactical nukes, that would've very nearly guaranteed a successful coup, because they could simply waltz right into Moscow and hold tactical nukes to keep the rest of Russian army at bay and other factions in Russia would realize the same thing, "Oh wait, so if they can do it... then...."
Cue the Western Governments poker face at the enactment of the movie, The Dark Knight Rises, where terrorists/fascists gain access to nukes and Russia balkanize by competing warlords holding at each others throat with tactical nukes.
This whole ordeal feels like a massive mess. What is actually going on here? Where are the Wagner forces now? Why is Putin making himself appear so weak/untrustworthy? What a mess of a country...
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This is a big mistake on Putin's part. Progozhin showed Putin is weak and so another attempt will eventually follow. The next one will not take a deal since he knows it won't be honored. The next one will dictate a deal on the steps of the Kremlin.
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Hmmm. Putin dodged a bullet with Wagner stepping down. Looks like they'll probably be stepping back up.
I can't see Wagner beiing able to do this again. But then again, grab a chair, grab popcorn.
.
Just wait till next Friday, when the Ruzzian army is drunk again.
That seems like a bad idea when this guy was able to thunder run to basically moscow suburbs
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Did he reinforce Moscow defences before doing this...
No, but he made sure the jet is topped off with fuel π
Honestly, I'm still thinking this is some next level of maskirovka to reposition Wagner in Belarus for an attack.
People are rejoicing too much while we have no fucking idea what is really going as of now.
Most of this circus does not make much sense. I am waiting for more details to make judgement.
Your theory makes more sense than the narrative.
This has felt, and continues to feel, like a Game of Thrones episode.
I'm just not sure which set of seasons, yet.
Please don't let it have a completely unecessary Ed Sheeran cameo.
Obligatory mention that James Blunt had a key role in the Ballan events destroying Russia's international clout after the USSR fell in the 90s.
Please do elaborate on that one...
Not quite, but would've.
His general refused an order from another general to fire on Russians, believing it would start ww3.
Blunt claims he would've refused the order too as a captain in the British army, if it hadn't already been refused higher up in the chain of command
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/singer-james-blunt-prevent-world-war-iii/
Yeah I only knew he was a tank commander there, that's "key role" enough for me.
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On the other hand, when the question "is Putin doing something clever or something stupid?" Comes up it's increasingly more the latter than the former. It's possible that this situation doesn't make much sense because at its core it actually doesn't make much sense.
My theory is that Prigozhin thought he could just walk in and take power, with the regular military falling in behind him, This was partially true except the main military seemed to be taking a wait and see approach, but Putin's loyalists threatened the lives of Wagner leadership's families to get them to back off, and then Putin saw the news coverage calling him weak for cutting a deal at all. Now Putin has to backtrack on his promise, which makes him seem even weaker.
Putin also has to find and capture Prigozhin before Wagner regroups and actually marches on Moscow. Which is still on the table.
The key here is that no one involved in this mess seems to be good at their job, they all seem to be petty would be dictators (or an actual petty dictator in Putin's case).
"The key here is that no one involved in this mess seems to be good at their job, they all seem to be petty would be dictators (or an actual petty dictator in Putin's case)."
This is what happens in a government culture that leans so heavily on the importance of machismo and appearing strong, rather than actually being competent and promoting stability.
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The problem with the line of thinking that this is some sort of deception or a trap, is that none of what is happening here is working towards anything. You simply can't do surprise troop movements in the age of GEOINT, nor are intelligence agencies so single-minded you could "distract" them with a fake coup, nor does this have any effect on the current Ukrainian offensive. The supposed trap is missing the "trap" part.
An interesting thought for sure!
Reporting from Ukraine covered this yesterday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZu3Yw4EwKQ&t=16s until minute 3.
The most convincing counter-argument for me was the loss of 7 russian aircraft plus pilots in the turmoil.
Nothing these creatures have done so far remotely suggests that they are capable of thinking up and executing a plan with any level of complex subtlety. They can only perform like a brute sledgehammer, even when the situation calls for a screwdriver.
Even I was like "huh, Putin is just going to let him fuck off to Belarus after this whole thing, riiiiight".
They want to create a cloud of obscure information so that when Prig kicks the bucket they can say that they had nothing to do with it.
I do wonder who is going to accidentally fall out of a window next
Onto a bunch of bullets too I'm sure
How to get yourself killed faster 101. What makes Putin think this is a safe situation for him to do this? I don't think it even salvage his shattered image of being a strong leader.
I am in shock
The way i see it, he has one of three options:
- Start training for them Siberian Gulag Winters
- Learn to fly out of a high rise
- Rapidly evolve to withstand radiation
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