Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Israel launched this campaign against Iran with the goal of regime change and destroying Iran's nuclear program, and it has failed at both objectives. The ceasefire gives Iran time to sort out its internal security issues and intelligence failures and time to build up its air defense network. IMO Iran won here.
The fact that they penetrated so deeply, destroyed any air defenses Iran had previously, and killed the commanders/scientists means this was a victory for Israel, regardless of stated goals. The fact that Iran needs time to recoup and prepare for the next assault is a consequence of that victory
No, I'm sorry but this resolution is bullshit. They could have kept hitting their power stations and shut off all their utilities. It's true that Israel began this conflict because they fear Iran's development and the decline of the US system, but Iran is giving up important impetus here. They wouldn't have to drop out of the conflict like this if they'd resolved their military agreement with China like a decade ago.
Iran can't fire missiles at Israel anymore, that's the problem. Israeli aircraft were bombing as far into Iran as Yadz yesterday, 1850km from Tel Aviv. Iran have very few missiles with more than 1850km stated maximum range. Khorramshahr series and Sejjil, and Fattah 1 with trajectory modifications are the only three missiles with more than 1850km range, and in very limited numbers. The bulk of Iran's missile arsenal is out of the fight, including the Qadr and Emad missiles. Qadr and Emad are critical as they make up the majority of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal with the range to hit Israel, the backbone of the missile forces. With them out of the fight there is no viable way to continue attacking Israel without resorting to guerrilla tactics.
I think that's a lot of conjecture drawn from OSINT stuff and you post about this competitively so I'm not even going to get into it. If Iran can't fire missiles at Israel then there's not much of a reason for Israel to seek a ceasefire with them.
There is probably a significant amount of domestic pressure in "Israel" as well. The settlers have never been exposed to attacks like this before. They've been hiding in bunkers every night for 10 days now, had two power plants disabled in the middle of Summer, they've been brawling and pepper spraying each other inside their bomb shelters. "Israel" will get back on its feet again, but they aren't built for this. They signed up for fully automated luxury fascism, not sweltering in the heat without lights and AC, dodging the shrapnel of missiles and missile interceptors.
Time will tell (it probably won't take long) if this will be remembered as operation "Rising Lion," or as operation "Scaring the Hoes."
Yes, they've got the settlers right where they want them! Iran is more independent than most countries and could actually do something ballsy like stopping the genocide! I don't think kids in Gaza are thinking about the great unraveling of the empire while they're starving to death! I now understand exactly why https://xcancel.com/AryJeay was @ing Araghchi. In the moment it struck me as arrogant.
I don't know. You asked why Israel might be pushing for a ceasefire. I suggested a plausible reason, because otherwise, with Iran's air defenses crippled I have no idea why they wouldn't press the advantage.
I mean that the pressure from the settlers is a product of functional missile assets!
The other person who replied asked a more interesting question about the ranges & speeds of more accurate and powerful missiles. That sounds a lot more helpful than takes based off of stuff Oryx has posted
What’s your opinion on why Israel is agreeing to a ceasefire if Iran has limited options for missile strikes?
Is it that Iran does have enough that they could still use despite how far Israeli aircraft can penetrate and Israel is getting pressure from citizens exhausted from the sirens and sitting in bunkers?
People have been posting all week about how Iran needs nukes yesterday, sounds like they agree
Did anyone discuss the agreement with China that fell through during the Ahmedinejad years? Seems like there was a lot of talk about China doing something without any consideration of what they are really capable of logistically.
sort of? tactical draw, strategic defeat, same as hezbollah.
need i remind you, the usa didn't strike iran cause they were afraid they would go apeshit (same for hezbollah), now they don't. If iran and china doesn't make up for air defense systems mega pronto, this is terminal rot (or they embrace the light of command economy instead of side grifting business, but i won't hold my breath)
It's a strategic victory for Iran because Israel failed at all its strategic goals. They couldn't destroy the nuclear program or overthrow the government.
i remember seeing similar sentiments with hezbollah.
They've opened the door, i would expect surprise assassinations will continue, they would fumble suppression caliber, get a small revolt ... 5 years to syria. if entity will not just straight start to fly drones over them, like lebanon, and saying not touching you, just watching. would they strike entity over single assassination? experience says they won't even with soleimani alive. would they start international assassination program same as entity? they have never exhibited such resolve. over a small drone strike on some car? over a mine on a ship?
They can't even if they wanted to, Iranian counterintelligence is either incompetent or just can't keep up with the extent of mossad infiltration in Iranian society. they knew the exact apartments that Iran's nuclear scientists and generals sleep in, Iran couldn't even keep Ismail Haniyeh alive as a visitor. Any attempt by Iran to do the same would be foiled immediately by tipoffs from various comprador assets.
of course they can, they just need to have a desire to. hire young orphans with no connections to the west (see hamas), investigate current structure, do couple of rounds of purges, congrats you've done it. then do random checks on wife behavior later, then your infiltration level will drop to random dudes instead of business interest peddlers who only see money
if nkvd (sort of) managed it in 10 years (~21-33, before big purges), while extremely overly broadly, they didn't have them defecting flagrantly, not until it became comfy kgb
Maybe, but you'd have to convince the reformists to actually care about state security, maybe getting bombed was enough of a wake up call but I'm not holding out hope.
but it's not reformists controlling irgc, it's them fumbling it on their own accord