Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Right on schedule, the Israelis are now saying they'll accept a ceasefire with Iran if Iran agrees. These strikes were merely the off ramp to allow Israel to exit a disastrous miscalculation. We'll see if Iran gives them the out, or decides to commit and punish the Israelis and Americans while they have they reeling.
Given the mood of the Iranian people, even if the government wanted a ceasefire I don't think they can. The time for talk is long past. Israel finally bit off something they can't chew up.
offer an israeli style ceasefire where they're not allowed to bomb you but you keep bombing them like nothing happened
What you, Israel, will do: Leave occupied Palestine
What we, Iran, will offer: permanent ceasefire
Final offer
That really is the only good ceasefire deal. One where isntreal stopps existing.
Unconditional surrender
Iran have been committed to their strategy of deterrence I see no reason they will break away from that at the very moment in time where they need to establish just what that truly means and why they absolutely should not fuck with Iran again in the future.
This is their one moment to establish future deterrence. If they ceasefire before punishment then they're not going to have a deterrence in future. The cost of carrying out the actions that have been performed needs to be established so that future decision makers factor them into any decision to do it ever again.
The ceasefire will just delay a further confrontation. And even then, Israel will just build up for a heavier and more violent attack on the knowledge that Iran's nuclear ambitions will be seriously considered more than ever before.
I don't think a "ceasefire" will cut it. They need a humiliating public apology at least, not to allow Netenyahu to return to his constituents after a spree of international terrorism and assassinations declaring "Mission Accomplished." That is not the circumstance which has been established by this cheesy Top Gun ass bombing campaign.
The biggest threat to Israel (ergo, US aspirations in West Asia) is for faith in the Zionist project to collapse. The accelerated brain drain driven by a lowered standard of living. The accelerated social strife by driven by slashing military exemptions. The continued farce of authoritarian rule within "the only democracy in the Middle East." The increased scarcity of consumer goods driven by port closures and "capital boycotts" (i.e. Maersk not shipping to Haifa due to the material risks). A country where the only people remaining are zealots who think reading scripture is more important than learning science, mathematics. literature, and history.
Get a nuke, then start talking about a cease fire.
This getting a Nuke is the only thing that will enforce any peace agreement beyond a shadow of a doubt.
perfect time to just crib one of Israel's offers to Hamas - sure Iran will agree to a ceasefire if the IDF surrenders its weapons and the government of Israel surrenders to Iran to be tried for their crimes
Bombing the facilities didn't work. Bombing the military leadership didnt work. Bombing the politicians didnt work. Bombing the missile silos didnt work. Bombing the civilians didnt work.
Maybe they think they can do another Stuxnet or some assassinations once Iranian security relaxes again.
Either way, we know what Israel will do the moment they offer negotiations - If Iran feels confident in their position they have every right and every opportunity to make the only demand they need to make:
The missiles stop when the genocide stops.
PS: this is easily a threat rather than an de-escalation as long as the American warships are on Iran's doorstep.
Yodioth Ahronoth has also said this.
Im Iranian, the people want blood, not just for our own citizens, but for Gaza as well. The quickest route to regime change right now is if they don't go hard and show to us that they will protect us.
Public opinion was probably the major reason the IRGC wasn't able to properly respond to Israeli aggression until now. The Iranian people now properly understand the position of the hardliners and IRGC. The zionists chose war and it's what they are going to get.
I don't know how long this war will last but my guess is this has at least another month. This reasonably gives Iran enough time to punish Israel and deplete weapon stocks.
No truce with the Shadow!
The entity needs to be badly, badly punished. At the very least it must be forced to end the genocide. Doing so will force huge numbers of settlers to flee, potentially spelling the death of the entity over the medium to long term. Or, Iran can truly harden its heart and hammer the entity until it crumbles. The potential cost to the Iranian people there is very high, but it might be lower than allowing this cancer to further metastasize.