Geopolitics
The study of how factors such as geography, economics, military capability and non-State actors affects the foreign policy of states.
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How much do you know about Russian politics? The reality is that Putin is a moderate in Russia, and if he had a heart attack tomorrow then it would likely be somebody like Medvedev that would take over. The policies United Russia pursues are very popular with the public, and the next most popular party is KPRF which is even more aligned with China.
No, it actually doesn't show that, not to mention the fact that the war created an opportunity to purge a lot of people who were pro western liberals. There is pretty much nobody in Russian politics who is even remotely pro western at this point.
And everybody in Russia remembers how that worked out. This may surprise you, but Russians are not imbeciles who are incapable of learning from experience.
No, this can't be reasonably assumed. In fact, what we've seen throughout the war is that the CIA clearly has absolutely no idea regarding what's going on in Russia.
Let's not forget that Prigozhin's mutiny was a perfect illustration that everyone is very much aligned with the war. Everyone immediately denounced it and pledged support for the government.
You are falling for the great man theory here. Putin is not running the government in Russia single handedly, nor is he the is he essential to the stability of the government. I get the impression that you really don't understand the political climate in Russia.
The idea that Russia understands that they need China is absolutely true. The reality of the situation is that Russia and China have common economic and security interests. Both countries understand that they're under threat from the west, and they have to work together to achieve mutual security. Everyone in Russia understands this.
No this is not a fact, it's a fantasy that's divorced from reality. In fact, anybody who has even a modicum of historical literacy would know that relations between Russia and China have been positive for centuries. The Sino-Soviet split was an aberration that only lasted for a few decades.
Quite the opposite actually. Russia's economic interests lie in the east, and especially with the European economy now crashing. Russia has already diverted trade towards BRICS, and they don't trust the west. You fundamentally misunderstand the situation here. It's not European gravity that draws Russia in, but the other way around. Europe cannot survive without Russia. And what will happen going forward is that the EU will break up, and countries will start restoring relations with Russia to survive.
The actual problem the US has is that it's demonstrably not a reliable partner, and it's even stabbing its closest allies in the back as we speak. Russia will never take anything US says seriously. That's a fact.
I can guarantee you that this is not a thing that can happen in practice.
A great response! I have the impression we need more posting about the internal politics of Russia because too many people have a very superficial and even incorrect understanding of them. I get why we don't generally do this a lot (in addition to the language barrier, but i hope that nowadays everyone knows how to run a text through a simple translator), as Russian politics is either very boring or depressingly full of culturally reactionary rhetoric and it's quite disturbing for a leftist to have to read that type of crap, but i think we can't afford to be thin skinned if we want to really develop our understanding.
We need to understand not just our unambiguous allies but also our enemies, as well as those who we critically support for strategic reasons, even if that sometimes means having to be confronted with some fairly unpleasant realities stemming from unresolved contradictions in a society.
Absolutely, it's essential to understand how the system in Russia works in order to reason about it. Otherwise, it's very easy to come to nonsensical conclusions. It's kind of the same mistake liberals make with China where they just treat as a mirror of the west, and then they're constantly surprised that things in China aren't developing the way they expected them to based on how things work here.
My own knowledge is limited to statements by public intellectuals and policy-makers, think-tank heads that are printed in places like RT. We disagree, that's fine and I have no right to demand of you things I myself have not furnished.
I don't have the energy to quote reply you back but needless to say I (still) have my view. Russians are no smarter or "stupider" than any other capitalists I think, liberalism, capitalism is a kind of blinders, some see more, some see less. Whether those people who see more have and retain power and clarity is another matter. Russia's eyes have been forced open a bit by Ukraine but how far it seems impossible to say given the often contradictory nature of public statements and the need to be coy for negotiations.
I was strongly influenced by this highly upvoted comment: https://lemmygrad.ml/comment/6061085
Saying their actions now in the heat of the Ukraine moment show a sustained change I think are premature. That's like saying a child who burned their fingers once and is now staying away from the stove has learned once and for all, maybe, then again maybe not, they could have to learn again several times as maybe this time the flame got them but they still haven't learned to respect not touching the hot iron griddles. Let us see where things go once peace is won in Ukraine.
So I'm not proposing anything too fantastical. Nothing that isn't drawing on historical precedent.
I have strong critical support for Russia but it is critical. And I wish others to be critical and not think too highly of the imposter that stands in the place of the USSR who for only mercenary motives is at times on our side. It's not the time to tar and feather them in front of liberals of course. But I wonder, and I worry.
As always optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect.
One thing that's worth pointing out is that Russia is at a different stage of capitalist development from the west. Russian capitalism is still largely industrial in nature. It's a very different beast from the western financialized system. Thus, the interests of Russian capitalists should be understood in their own material context and the stage of development of Russia. The system is closer to the way capitalism operated in Europe at the start of the 20th century with domestic capitalism coupled with state power.
I very much agree that the support for Russia has to be critical given that it is ultimately a capitalist state. At the same time, it is important to have a good understanding of how the system in Russia actually works to make predictions regarding of what we can expect to happen. The key point I want to highlight in that regard is that there is much more capacity in Russia for doing long term strategic planning than there is in the west. Ukraine is actually proof of that because Russia started preparing for the war all the way back in 2008, and it's the ability to carry out sustained policy over decades that allowed Russia to defeat the west in Ukraine. Similarly, I expect that Russia will take a long term strategic view in regards to its relations with the west and China.