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Canada ‘will never be part of the US’, says new PM Mark Carney amid trade war
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 14 Mar 2025
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There was once a literal war with guns between the US and Canada (War of 1812} and Canada won.
Things have changed a lot since then. The US has over 1 million active personnel to Canada's <100k. If it comes to a real invasion, things would not go well.
The real question is how many Americans would be willing to participate in that invasion.
Canada also has NATO.
A declaration of war from the current leader of NATO will likely fracture what is currently NATO. Europe will want to help Canada, but they will be preoccupied with suppressing Russia's aggression, because there is no longer a NATO.
Canada won't have NATO. At best it will have half of NATO.
That "half of NATO" has nuclear weapons.
The US hasn't experienced a war on it's own soil in living memory. Americans shit their pants when they see a couple of drones over New Jersey. And Americans don't have the will to endure a long drawn out occupation even when there's an ocean between them and a war. Canadians will endure it, because we would have no other choice.
This would be a war of betrayal. Trump would need to have Elon Musk purge the US military of anyone with even an once of honour and courage. Currenttly Trump is demanding Canada to defend the US border for him. The US would need to defend it's border, and that's a long border. You'd also need to have checkpoints in the US where soldiers will check your papers because Canadians would be trying to infiltrate the US and hit the soft targets everywhere. There would be raids on your houses to find and Canadians or any sympathizers. How willing are you do have these things happen?
Because it would be betraying an ally, the US would have zero allies in this war. Canada would get lethal aid from Europe and likely from Asia too. And Canadians know how to make an IED. Because our soldiers served in Afghanistan. Alongside the US military that's going to betray the soldiers it fought alongside a few short years ago. And why? Because of the whims of a deranged old man? So you might have a slight morale problem.
While you're looking at troop strengths on spreadsheet, we're looking at the willingness of Americans to do what would need to be done for decades to succeed in occupying a neighbouring country. We only need to outlast you, while you need to have the will to watch young people coming back from the north in body bags. For decades.
The chance of the US winning a war like this is basically zero.
The recent film Civil War gives a good example of what could happen. There is certainly a subset of Trump supporters that would follow orders. But a large segment would likely split off and further divide the country.
Yep it will not be one side versus the other. It will be a mixed bag of violence and chaos.
Given the U.S.’s recent experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, countries far smaller and with far fewer resources (natural and industrial) than Canada, I like our (Canada’s) chances!
Plus our military may be small but it’s elite, composed of professional soldiers extremely well-versed in US (and NATO) operations and tactics. If Middle Eastern countries with largely irregular forces can give the U.S. migraines using guerrilla tactics, we can do the same with far better results.
They also had the advantage of distance. The US had to ship their resources there. Here, they just drive over the border.
I'm also Canadian, and in full-scale war, I do not like Canada's chances.
Not to mention, it would be a stupid senseless war, much like what's happening in Ukraine
Drive across the border… then what? Canada is vast. A million soldiers is not a lot compared to this landscape. Even if you only consider the 100 mile strip of land along the border. It’s a vast area to occupy…. and then do what with it?
Going to Ottawa and completely disrupting and dismantling the government would probably be a solid first step.
I'm sure Big Balls would be thrilled to help as he's done in the US.
That’s not gonna work. The prime minister and the rest of the government MPs will escape before they can be captured.
That’s what Napoleon tried to do when he invaded Russia. I predict similar results.