Collapse

TIM LENTON: I’m not the only climate scientist who would tell you that if we go to 3 degrees Celsius of warming later this century—which is roughly where we’re heading on current policies—or, if we’re unlucky, and the climate is more sensitive, and that turns out to be 4 degrees Celsius or even more, we see such fundamental changes in the habitability of large areas of the planet that we find it hard not to conclude that there could be some kind of major social disruption, and thus an economic breakdown.

You could think of it as a fifty-fifty chance of losing everything or having a major social collapse

We and coauthors2 interpret that uniquely large warming as being due about equally to a moderate El Nino and reduction of ship aerosols, with a smaller contribution from the present solar maximum (our entire paper, including Abstract & Supplementary Material is available in a single compressed PDF here). An “acid” test of our interpretation will be provided by the 2025 global temperature: unlike the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, which were followed by global cooling of more than 0.3°C and 0.2°C, respectively, we expect global temperature in 2025 to remain near or above the 1.5°C level. Indeed, the 2025 might even set a new record despite the present weak La Nina. There are two independent reasons. First, the “new” climate forcing due to reduction of sulfate aerosols over the ocean remains in place, and, second, high climate sensitivity (~4.5°C for doubled CO2) implies that the warming from recently added forcings is still growing significantly.

mmm, acid

notice the steps down to lower output at great financial crash and covid for other countries with no recovery to previous trend level

Everyone tells me they wouldn't do that but I know better than to trust the powers that be with my life and health. I heard about something called SR17018 that might be some kind of replacement or possibly a way to quit but I can't find much on how it can be used in these ways, although I do have a source. I also have a couple huge bottles of vitamin c, for something called "the vitamin c method" which may or may not help with withdrawals. Any other ideas or steps people are taking besides stockpiling? I could never stockpile enough honestly. Any help appreciated, this is the biggest obstacle to survival for me if the collapse happens any time soon at all.