news

Most Brazilians see Donald Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff as unjustified meddling in internal affairs and believe President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration is responding appropriately, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published Tuesday, found that 50.3% of respondents view Trump’s move — which the US leader linked to legal proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro — as an attack on Brazil’s sovereignty.

After the US president’s July 9 threat, Lula said his government would respond in kind if tariffs go into effect on Aug. 1 as planned. Some 44.8% of Brazilians considered that reaction appropriate, 27.5% viewed it as aggressive, and 25.2% found it weak, according to the poll. More than half of respondents, 51.2%, supported hitting back with retaliatory tariffs, while 28.6% said Brazil should strengthen ties with US rivals like China.

Lula’s disapproval rating edged down in July, falling to 50.3% from 51.8% in June. Meanwhile, his approval rating ticked up to 49.7% from 47.3% over the same period. Brazil’s diplomatic dispute with the US also boosted support for Lula’s foreign policy. Some 60.2% now view it favorably, up from 49.6% in November 2023.

The share of Brazilians who say Lula represents the country on the international stage better than Bolsonaro rose to 61.1% from 51%. And nearly half of those surveyed, 47.9%, believe Lula’s administration will be able to negotiate an agreement with the US.

Bolsonaro is expected to stand trial before the Supreme Court for allegedly attempting a coup after his supporters stormed government buildings in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023. Authorities also accused the 70-year-old former president of being tied to a plot to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

After Trump’s threat, one of the former president’s sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro, claimed the move was a result of his lobbying efforts in the US to rally international support for his father.

For 62.2% of poll respondents, Trump’s decision to target Brazil is unjustified. Most see it as politically motivated, with 40.9% saying it was retaliation for Brazil’s participation in the BRICS bloc and 36.9% attributing it to the Bolsonaro family’s influence in the US.

Trump’s image in Brazil is suffering as a result. Some 63.2% now view the US president negatively, up from from 47% in November 2023, while his favorable rating dropped sharply to 31.9% from from 48%. The image of the US has also deteriorated in Brazil, with 50.5% of respondents having a negative view of the superpower compared to 45.9% who see the country positively.

Looking ahead, if Trump’s tariff goes into effect next month, 48.6% of respondents believe it will have a significant impact Brazil’s economy. And some 70% expect inflation — which ticked up to 5.35% on an annual basis in June — to increase as a result. AtlasIntel surveyed 2,841 people online between Friday and Sunday. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

They include disembarkation operations, fast-rope insertion, crane rescue extraction, and maritime communication drills. On Monday, more than 100 special forces from Panama and the United States began training exercises aimed at defending the interoceanic canal and other strategic infrastructure in the Central American country.

Over five days, the “Panamax Alpha 2025 – Phase 1” exercise will involve air, land and sea units, including Panamanian police forces and the U.S. Southern Command’s Joint Task Force-Bravo (JTF-B).

This year’s edition of Panamax Alpha Phase 1 includes 80 Panamanian personnel from the National Aeronaval Service (Senan), the National Border Service (Senafront), and the National Police, along with 47 U.S. military personnel.

“The exercise consists of training and preparing our units in the air, land, and maritime domains for the defense of the Panama Canal… The intention is to combine the capabilities of each institution… and work as one group to address potential threats to the Canal,” said Senan Deputy Commissioner Maicol Palacio.

Phase 1 of Panamax Alpha 2025 includes embarkation and disembarkation operations, fast-rope insertion, crane rescue extraction, and maritime communication drills. The exercise includes the arrival of three helicopters from the U.S. Joint Task Force-Bravo: two UH-60 Black Hawks and one CH-47 Chinook.

Palacio explained that the aim of this first phase is “to train and prepare” Panamanian agents for the second phase of the Panamax exercise, which involves real-time execution and will take place in September.

U.S. Col. Lance Awbrey stated that the exercise is conducted every year with Panama and is “very important for improving the relationship and interoperability” between the two nations’ security forces. “Everything we do is in coordination with the Government of Panama,” he added.

Joint exercises between the U.S. and Panama — which has lacked a standing army since 1990 following the 1989 U.S. invasion — are frequent. This year, however, a memorandum of understanding signed between the U.S. Department of Defense and Panama’s Security Ministry has sparked major controversy. The agreement allows for an increased U.S. military presence in the country on a temporary and rotating basis.

Some Panamanian sectors have labeled the agreement a violation of national sovereignty and of the Neutrality Treaty that governs the Canal. President Jose Raul Mulino has rejected those claims, stating that over the past 30 years more than 20 security cooperation agreements have been signed.

The controversy has intensified because the memorandum was signed around the same time that U.S. President Donald Trump spoke about reclaiming the Panama Canal for the U.S., citing alleged Chinese influence in its administration. The Mulino administration has strongly and repeatedly rejected that claim.

The United States built and operated the Panama Canal for more than 80 years until its transfer to Panamanian control on Dec. 31, 1999, under the terms of the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties.

The 82-kilometer waterway, which links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is governed by the Neutrality Treaty in effect since 1979, which guarantees full Panamanian sovereignty over the Canal.

President Sheinbaum has also repeatedly called for stopping the illegal flow of U.S. weapons into Mexican territory. On Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the U.S. government must take responsibility in the fight against drug trafficking in the same way Mexico has fulfilled its part.

She emphasized that her administration has repeatedly called for stopping the illegal flow of weapons from U.S. territory into Mexico, as well as for the arrest of individuals involved in drug trafficking in the neighboring country.

Her statements came after U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose new tariffs on Mexican products. As in previous instances, the Republican leader justified his threat by claiming Mexico’s efforts to curb drug trafficking were insufficient.

Sheinbaum noted that Trump has issued pressure-laden messages not only toward Mexico but also toward other countries. She also mentioned that after their meeting at the G-7 summit, it was agreed to establish a bilateral working group to address these issues.

That meeting included key officials from the U.S. cabinets of security, trade, and energy, along with Mexican representatives from the foreign affairs and security sectors, led by Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard.

During the G7 summit, the Mexican delegation was formally notified of a letter regarding the imposition of tariffs. The two countries also outlined work and negotiation pathways that will continue through Aug. 1, a deadline by which both nations hope to reach agreements to avoid the tariffs.

Sheinbaum reiterated her confidence that an understanding will be reached. However, she warned that Mexico will take the necessary steps to protect its interests if an agreement is not achieved.

On security matters, she stressed that results are beginning to show and clarified that the agreements made do not, under any circumstances, include the presence of foreign troops on Mexican territory.

U.S. clients account for 45 percent of Embraer’s commercial airline aircraft exports and 70 percent of its executive jets. On Tuesday, Francisco Gomes Neto, the CEO of Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer, warned that a 50 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian goods would raise the cost of each Embraer aircraft by nearly US$9 million.

Gomes Neto, noted that the steep tax — effective on Aug. 1 — threatens to make the firm’s U.S. exports “unfeasible,” with disruptions rivaling those of the COVID-19 pandemic. He called the measure a potential “near-embargo” that could cripple trade ties.

The Embraer president emphasized that the U.S. is the company’s primary market, and if the 50 percent tariff takes effect, there is no immediate alternative market that can compensate for the lost demand.

According to company data, U.S. clients account for 45 percent of its commercial airline aircraft exports and 70 percent of its executive jets. The tariff could destabilize Embraer’s Brazilian and U.S. manufacturing units and its American supply chain, he added.

Embraer employs approximately 3,000 people across its U.S. subsidiaries, including manufacturing and service centers, after 45 years of operation in the country.

Gomes Neto explained that the 50 percent tariff would increase the production cost of each aircraft by an additional US$ 8.96 million, resulting in an annual increase of US$358 for the manufacturer.

Considering Embraer’s growth plans through 2030, the potential impact of the tariff could reach about US$3.6 billion. Despite the pressure, the CEO expressed “optimism” about ongoing Brazil-U.S. negotiations.