this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2025
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Economics

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Experts suspect ‘front loading’ of activity may mask deeper impact of tariffs on the US economy

As Trump published a slew of tariff letters to individual countries throughout the week, less hopeful observers sensed a reinvigorated Trump, who seemed to be channelling the spirit of “liberation day”, when he held up that gameshow-style card, promising punitive levies on countries that had “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered” the US.

These letters – all released on Truth Social and featuring Trump’s thick signature in Sharpie pen – included swingeing tariff rates of 50% on Brazil, 30% on Sri Lanka and 35% on Canada.

As in April, some pointed to issues well beyond the sphere of trade – the fate of Brazil’s ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, for example, and alleged fentanyl trafficking from Canada.

“If we compare where we are now with where we were in April, many of the tariffs that he is describing and the letters that he’s sent out are very similar to what he described then,” said Prof Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “I think what this shows is that the bluster in April about, ‘we’re going to negotiate all these trade deals’, was way overhyped.”

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