this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2025
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Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 57 points 3 days ago (5 children)

remember when they said Putin fell down the stairs and shit himself back in 2022 lol

[–] ElChapoDeChapo@hexbear.net 36 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

biden-fall

bugs-stalin Always projection, aint it?

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 34 points 3 days ago

When you are in a killing head of state competition and you adversary is ''tripping down the stairs''

squidward-nervous

[–] Dessa@hexbear.net 12 points 2 days ago

That's rich considering Biden's condition in 2022

[–] da_gay_pussy_eatah@hexbear.net 27 points 3 days ago

whom amongst us

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 50 points 3 days ago (6 children)

Texas Flooding is ‘Act of God,’ Says White House Press Secretary - Telesur English

Article

Senator Schumer called for an investigation into whether staffing shortages at NWS stations contributed to the tragedy. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt rejected criticism that the Trump administration’s recent staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) contributed to the deadly floods in Texas.

“This was an act of God. It is not the administration’s fault that the flood hit when it did,” Leavitt said, noting that the NWS “did its job” by sending “early and consistent warnings.” “Unfortunately, in the wake of this once-in-a-generation natural disaster, we have seen many falsehoods pushed by Democrats such as Senator Chuck Schumer and some members of the media,” Leavitt said. “Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie, and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,” she added.

On Monday, Schumer, the Senate Democratic Leader, called for an investigation into whether “staffing shortages at key local NWS stations contributed to the catastrophic loss of life and property during the deadly flooding.” Over 500 workers were reportedly cut by the Trump administration or left on their own, leaving NWS short-staffed. According to its website, six of 27 positions are listed as vacant at the NWS office for Austin/San Antonio, which covers the region that includes hard-hit Kerr County, including a key manager responsible for issuing warnings and coordinating with local emergency management officials. On Tuesday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott updated the death toll from last weekend’s flooding. So far, authorities have reported 170 people missing and 110 dead.

[–] iByteABit@hexbear.net 4 points 2 days ago

Huh, I thought Iran was the theocracy

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 35 points 3 days ago

god hates americans

[–] Skeleton_Erisma@hexbear.net 37 points 3 days ago (2 children)
[–] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 27 points 3 days ago

was it even a full year ago when it happened in two other states?

[–] PosadistInevitablity@hexbear.net 21 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

There was a much worse flood just seven years ago in the same area.

Difference is, people got warnings and so very few died.

This wasn’t even a 1:25 year flood for fucks sake

[–] FnordPrefect@hexbear.net 21 points 3 days ago

it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,” she added.

You can never be held accountable if you simply produce an (in)appropriate frequency of tragedies think-about-it

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 28 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Clever. Now insurers dont need to pay up

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[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 57 points 3 days ago (7 children)

https://mondoweiss.net/2025/03/from-global-anti-imperialism-to-the-dandelion-fighters-chinas-solidarity-with-palestine-from-1950-to-2024/

This is a good long form article describing the relationship of the Chinese state to Israel/palestine since 1949. It describes the early optimism of maybe Israel not being a tool of the west until the mid 50s, the strident Maoist position of international revolution, the much softer and hands off dengist approach, and the contradiction between investment in Israel and china's foreign policy rhetoric in the xi years. Towards the end there is more discussion of Israeli PR in China since 2023.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 26 points 3 days ago (1 children)
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[–] GoodGuyWithACat@hexbear.net 43 points 3 days ago (6 children)
[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 33 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Six states – Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky and Iowa – sued California over its egg regulations in 2014. The states who sued also argued that the federal law preempted California's laws, and they lost in both a federal district court and the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

The U.S. Supreme Court in 2023 preserved one of the California voter initiatives, which was challenged in a lawsuit by pig farmers. The pig farmers had argued that California's 2018 ballot measure, which creates minimum space requirements for pigs and cows as well as chickens, impermissibly regulated out-of-state farmers.

I'm nothing ever happens gang, this is an already-litigated issue

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 39 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Russia Launches Massive Overnight Airstrike on Ukrainian Military Infrastructure - Telesur English

Article

The attack was a precision operation that used long-range weapons aimed at neutralizing Ukrainian air bases. Between Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, Russian armed forces launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and long-range drones against Ukrainian military infrastructure.

The Russian Defense Ministry described the attack as a precision operation using long-range weapons aimed at neutralizing air bases and the operational capacity of the Ukrainian army.

“All designated targets were hit,” Russian authorities said, referring to strategic military airfields used by Ukrainian forces and their NATO allies as key logistical hubs for the supply and deployment of military equipment.

From Kyiv, Ukrainian military officials described the strike as one of the largest recorded to date, claiming that more than 700 drones may have been used. That figure has not been confirmed by Russian sources but underscores the scale of the aerial operation.

The attack brought renewed attention to the use of Kinzhal missiles, a hypersonic weapon system developed by Russia capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10 and evading Western air defense systems.

Their deployment reflects a shift in Russian military doctrine, which now prioritizes the use of advanced deterrent weapons in the face of a protracted conflict in Eastern Europe.

The strike comes amid an increase in Western military support for Ukraine, particularly from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, which have ramped up deliveries of long-range missiles, drones and precision ammunition. Moscow has repeatedly warned that such actions only escalate the conflict and risk dragging Europe into a spiral of regional instability.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 40 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (4 children)

MDBA have restarted SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow subsonic low observable/stealth cruise missile production lines in Stevenage, United Kingdom, for the first time in over 15 years, previously they were only doing mid life updates on already made missiles. French production lines were doing low rate production to fulfill export orders (such as India). This is the first time France or the UK has placed an order for new missiles in over 15 years too.

Source

More Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles for Ukraine.

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[–] Lisitsyn@hexbear.net 48 points 3 days ago (2 children)

The Estonian "Kapo" (their official name, i am not kidding) deport Russian citizen for reportedly having contact with the FSB. Not big news, just find the name "Kapo" very unfortunate, especially for a nazi infested country like Estonia.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 32 points 3 days ago

Two Guatemalans Died After Rockfall Caused by Earthquakes - Telesur English

Article

President Arevalo suspended public school classes on Wednesday and ordered remote work for those who are able to do so. On Wednesday, the Guatemalan government confirmed the deaths of two men who were traveling in a vehicle when it was crushed by a giant boulder following a landslide triggered by two earthquakes that struck Tuesday afternoon.

The deaths occurred on a road connecting the departments of Escuintla and Sacatepequez. The Volunteer Fire Department reported that a massive rock fell on the vehicle carrying the two men, ages 53 and 20.

On Tuesday, Guatemala was shaken by two earthquakes measuring 5.2 and 5.7 in magnitude on the Richter scale. The quakes caused minor damage to some properties near the epicenters. The earthquakes occurred between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. local time and were followed by several smaller aftershocks.

According to the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology, the epicenters of the quakes were in the southern part of the country, specifically in the department of Escuintla, about 30 miles south of the capital.

The text reads, “Guatemala: This afternoon, a strong 5.2 magnitude earthquake left devastation in various homes and businesses in the center and interior of the Central American country.”

“The safety of our families is the priority. After the earthquake, take precautions, follow the instructions of the authorities and the established protocols. We will be deployed to assist the population with calm and responsibility. Report any damage to 119 at the National Coordination for Disaster Reduction,” Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo wrote on social media.

He later ordered the suspension of classes in public schools and directed that those who could work from home on Wednesday. Authorities have reported some minor damage to properties near the epicenters, mainly in Sacatepequez and Escuintla.

On May 12, another strong earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 was felt across nearly the entire country, causing minor damage to some properties in the department of San Marcos, which borders Mexico, as well as small landslides on some highways. Guatemala’s last major earthquake, a 7.5-magnitude temblor, occurred in February 1976 and left an estimated 23,000 people dead, according to official figures.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 31 points 3 days ago

Where Do Things Stand Now as Trump Prolongs Tariff Pause? - Telesur English

Article

Forbes described the move as the administration’s 27th policy ‘flip-flop’ since April 2, dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’ With the 90-day suspension of sweeping U.S. reciprocal tariffs scheduled to expire Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday to extend the pause till Aug. 1 while trade negotiations continue.

Forbes described the move as the administration’s “27th policy flip-flop” since April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” when the White House launched its aggressive tariff campaign. The delay adds yet another twist to Trump’s original “90 deals in 90 days” promise — so far yielding only two vague trade agreements with Britain and Vietnam.

So where do things stand now — and could more deals be coming down the pipeline between Washington and its major trading partners? Here’s the latest:

ASIAN PARTNERS

Alongside the tariff reprieve extension, Trump on Monday announced new 25 percent tariffs — effective Aug. 1 — on imports from 14 countries, including key allies Japan and South Korea. The announcement came with a warning: retaliatory measures will be met with a tit-for-tat response. Still, Washington left the door open for negotiation.

In the previous seven round of bilateral talks, Japan had floated a package of concessions such as boosting imports of U.S. agricultural goods and liquefied natural gas in exchange for relief on automobile, which accounts for around 30 percent of Japan’s exports to the United States. But Washington showed little flexibility.

Trump described Japan as “very tough” and “very spoiled” last week, and threatened to raise tariffs to 30-35 percent unless Japan opens its market to U.S. rice and other products. Japan is reportedly pushing for an eighth round of talks, but political constraints ahead of its general election and a sluggish economy limit its room to make major compromises.

South Korea has adopted a more multifaceted strategy. In addition to requesting a 90-day extension previously, Seoul had dispatched its top trade and security officials to Washington to engage in tariff discussions with wider cooperation, including exchange rate and defense issues.

South Korea’s Trade Ministry said Tuesday it will accelerate talks with Washington to reach a “mutually beneficial” agreement before the new deadline. President Lee Jae Myung admitted, “It’s still not clear to each side what the other wants.”

EUROPEAN ALLIES

Despite Washington’s last-minute decision to extend the pause, the EU is still aiming to strike with the United States a deal by midweek.

“We’re working towards July 9 as the point where we want to have an agreement in principle at a minimum with the U.S.,” said Olof Gill, the Commission’s trade spokesperson, on Monday.

Over the past months, Washington and Brussels have remained divided over tariffs on cars and steel, agricultural market access and digital regulation. Brussels’ firm stance on protecting its food standards and tech sovereignty has irritated Trump, who called the EU “very nasty” and threatened to raise tariffs on European exports to as high as 50 percent.

As the largest trading partner of the United States, the bloc already faces a 10 percent baseline tariff, with autos at 25 percent and steel and aluminum at 50 percent. Should no agreement be reached by Aug. 1, EU exports may face a further tariff hike, as Trump has warned.

The EU executive said that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a “good exchange” on trade with Trump on Sunday. But she also said: “What we are aiming at is an agreement in principle, because with such a volume, in 90 days, an agreement in detail is impossible … That is also what the UK did.”

Meanwhile, EU countries remain split on strategy. Countries like Italy and Germany support a quick deal and are willing to make significant concessions in exchange for lower duties on strategic sectors, while France and Spain have so far taken a more confrontational approach, urging the Commission to adopt a tougher stance.

NEIGHBORS

The United States’ neighboring countries appear to be faring better, thanks to tariff exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which covers goods primarily produced in North America. But the pain is still real.

To continue trade talks with Trump, Canada recently scrapped a proposed 3 percent digital services tax targeting U.S. tech giants, a leavy Trump had slammed as “a blatant attack,” after Trump called Canada “very nasty” and threatened to suspend trade talks if Canada imposes the tax. Referring to the repeal, the White House said last week that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada “caved” to Trump and the U.S.

According to Canada’s Department of Finance, Trump and Carney are now aiming to finalize a trade deal by July 21. U.S. tariffs on Canadian metals — a 50 percent levy on aluminum and 25 percent on steel — as well as Canada’s dairy supply management system could still return to the table.

Mexico has weathered the storm more effectively. Roughly half of its exports to its northern neighbor already meet USMCA rules of origin, and that share is expected to rise to 85-90 percent as companies adapt. That is much higher than Canada’s 38 percent in 2024.

Mexico is also in talks with Washington over a quota system to allow a set volume of steel exports to enter at lower tariffs. Additionally, Mexico is pushing for an early review of the USMCA, potentially by September, to secure longer-term trade certainty. However, the quota proposal has yet to materialize, and the early review could become a bargaining chip for Washington in further negotiations.

While negotiations are clearly active, it remains far too early to predict any concrete deals. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated in February that tariffs would reduce U.S. GDP growth by around 0.25 percentage points.

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