this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2025
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Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 32 points 1 week ago

Where Do Things Stand Now as Trump Prolongs Tariff Pause? - Telesur English

Article

Forbes described the move as the administration’s 27th policy ‘flip-flop’ since April 2, dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’ With the 90-day suspension of sweeping U.S. reciprocal tariffs scheduled to expire Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday to extend the pause till Aug. 1 while trade negotiations continue.

Forbes described the move as the administration’s “27th policy flip-flop” since April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” when the White House launched its aggressive tariff campaign. The delay adds yet another twist to Trump’s original “90 deals in 90 days” promise — so far yielding only two vague trade agreements with Britain and Vietnam.

So where do things stand now — and could more deals be coming down the pipeline between Washington and its major trading partners? Here’s the latest:

ASIAN PARTNERS

Alongside the tariff reprieve extension, Trump on Monday announced new 25 percent tariffs — effective Aug. 1 — on imports from 14 countries, including key allies Japan and South Korea. The announcement came with a warning: retaliatory measures will be met with a tit-for-tat response. Still, Washington left the door open for negotiation.

In the previous seven round of bilateral talks, Japan had floated a package of concessions such as boosting imports of U.S. agricultural goods and liquefied natural gas in exchange for relief on automobile, which accounts for around 30 percent of Japan’s exports to the United States. But Washington showed little flexibility.

Trump described Japan as “very tough” and “very spoiled” last week, and threatened to raise tariffs to 30-35 percent unless Japan opens its market to U.S. rice and other products. Japan is reportedly pushing for an eighth round of talks, but political constraints ahead of its general election and a sluggish economy limit its room to make major compromises.

South Korea has adopted a more multifaceted strategy. In addition to requesting a 90-day extension previously, Seoul had dispatched its top trade and security officials to Washington to engage in tariff discussions with wider cooperation, including exchange rate and defense issues.

South Korea’s Trade Ministry said Tuesday it will accelerate talks with Washington to reach a “mutually beneficial” agreement before the new deadline. President Lee Jae Myung admitted, “It’s still not clear to each side what the other wants.”

EUROPEAN ALLIES

Despite Washington’s last-minute decision to extend the pause, the EU is still aiming to strike with the United States a deal by midweek.

“We’re working towards July 9 as the point where we want to have an agreement in principle at a minimum with the U.S.,” said Olof Gill, the Commission’s trade spokesperson, on Monday.

Over the past months, Washington and Brussels have remained divided over tariffs on cars and steel, agricultural market access and digital regulation. Brussels’ firm stance on protecting its food standards and tech sovereignty has irritated Trump, who called the EU “very nasty” and threatened to raise tariffs on European exports to as high as 50 percent.

As the largest trading partner of the United States, the bloc already faces a 10 percent baseline tariff, with autos at 25 percent and steel and aluminum at 50 percent. Should no agreement be reached by Aug. 1, EU exports may face a further tariff hike, as Trump has warned.

The EU executive said that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a “good exchange” on trade with Trump on Sunday. But she also said: “What we are aiming at is an agreement in principle, because with such a volume, in 90 days, an agreement in detail is impossible … That is also what the UK did.”

Meanwhile, EU countries remain split on strategy. Countries like Italy and Germany support a quick deal and are willing to make significant concessions in exchange for lower duties on strategic sectors, while France and Spain have so far taken a more confrontational approach, urging the Commission to adopt a tougher stance.

NEIGHBORS

The United States’ neighboring countries appear to be faring better, thanks to tariff exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which covers goods primarily produced in North America. But the pain is still real.

To continue trade talks with Trump, Canada recently scrapped a proposed 3 percent digital services tax targeting U.S. tech giants, a leavy Trump had slammed as “a blatant attack,” after Trump called Canada “very nasty” and threatened to suspend trade talks if Canada imposes the tax. Referring to the repeal, the White House said last week that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada “caved” to Trump and the U.S.

According to Canada’s Department of Finance, Trump and Carney are now aiming to finalize a trade deal by July 21. U.S. tariffs on Canadian metals — a 50 percent levy on aluminum and 25 percent on steel — as well as Canada’s dairy supply management system could still return to the table.

Mexico has weathered the storm more effectively. Roughly half of its exports to its northern neighbor already meet USMCA rules of origin, and that share is expected to rise to 85-90 percent as companies adapt. That is much higher than Canada’s 38 percent in 2024.

Mexico is also in talks with Washington over a quota system to allow a set volume of steel exports to enter at lower tariffs. Additionally, Mexico is pushing for an early review of the USMCA, potentially by September, to secure longer-term trade certainty. However, the quota proposal has yet to materialize, and the early review could become a bargaining chip for Washington in further negotiations.

While negotiations are clearly active, it remains far too early to predict any concrete deals. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated in February that tariffs would reduce U.S. GDP growth by around 0.25 percentage points.