Discontent with federal policies has sparked separatist sentiments in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. On Monday, Probe Research released a poll showing that 22% of Manitoba residents would vote in favor of separating from Canada if an independence referendum were held.

Conducted with interviews of 1,000 people and a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, the survey indicates that up to 70% would vote to remain in Canada. It also reveals that support for separation is strongest in rural areas and among conservative voters.

The results reflect a similar trend in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In these western Canadian provinces, separatist sentiment has grown in recent years, particularly among conservatives frustrated with federal government policies.

That frustration intensified after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won the April 28 election, causing disappointment among conservatives who have been out of power since 2015.

Currently, Alberta — one of Canada’s wealthiest provinces and the source of 84% of the country’s oil production — is the epicenter of the separatist movement. A poll published in late May indicated that 30% of Alberta residents support independence, up four points from 2021.

In fact, Alberta now shows significantly stronger support for separatism than Quebec did when it held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995. This sentiment is growing amid accusations that the federal government is sacrificing Alberta’s prosperity in favor of Ontario and Quebec.

Alberta’s separatist movement plans to hold a referendum in 2026. In May, it unveiled the proposed question for the vote: “Do you agree that the province should become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”

The proposal gained momentum after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative, moved to lower the requirements for holding referendums and announced she would not oppose its organization. Ahead of the April 28 election, Smith voiced her opposition to a potential Liberal victory and has since justified the western provinces’ frustration following Carney’s win.

Progressive politicians deal a severe blow to President Milei’s party. On Sunday, Peronist candidates won in local elections in the province of Formosa and the city of Rosario, pushing President Javier Milei’s Freedom Advances party into a distant third place.

The results of these provincial elections may be seen as a prelude to the upcoming national legislative elections in October, when Argentina’s far-right will attempt to counter a resurgent Peronist movement, currently undergoing a process of reorganization following former President Cristina Fernandez’s placement under house arrest.

In Santa Fe, voters chose mayors, city council members and local leaders in 365 municipalities. In that province, “United to Change Santa Fe” — a coalition led by Gov. Maximiliano Pullaro’s Radical Civic Union (UCR) — won in 17 of the 19 major cities.

Another surprise came in Rosario, one of the province’s largest cities, where Peronist candidate Juan Monteverde claimed victory with 30.6% of the vote, beating far-right contender Juan Aleart, who received 28.8%. This marks the first Peronist win in Rosario in more than 50 years.

“The only way to save this democracy we have is to participate more and generate projects that try to represent the majority, even knowing that we are different. Because there is a social majority in Rosario, Santa Fe, and Argentina that does not agree with what is happening.”

“Today, the people of Rosario defeated the president, the governor and the mayor,” Monteverde said. “They voted without fear, against the political machines, and they won because there is a social majority that is struggling and disagrees with what is happening. But it lacked a political force to represent it. In Rosario, that force has now emerged.”

Freedom Advances won in just 2 out of 365 districts, securing 34 city council seats. Despite the modest results, Karina Milei — the president’s sister and secretary of the presidency — celebrated the outcome with fanfare.

In Formosa, Peronist Gov. Gildo Insfran cemented his dominance with more than 67% of the vote. His next goal is to push for a constitutional reform that would allow him to run for re-election in 2027. The far-right Freedom Advances party garnered just 11% of the vote.

From her residence in Buenos Aires, Cristina Fernandez spoke with the two Peronist leaders to congratulate them on their victories. “A few minutes ago, I spoke with my comrade, Gov. Gildo Insfran, to congratulate him on the excellent results for Peronism in the election of constitutional convention delegates and provincial lawmakers,” she posted on social media.

Argentina is currently in the midst of a marathon of staggered provincial elections throughout 2025. On Oct. 26, Argentines will vote to renew half of the country’s legislature by electing 24 senators and 127 representatives.