this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 48 points 22 hours ago (3 children)

IAEA chief Grossi gave an interview on French radio today, link here. What I find most interesting is this statement:

Yes, and the knowledge we have of the facilities and capabilities, for example. I'll give you an example: Fordow, the major underground facility that everyone's talking about. It's almost like a movie script. We've seen the images of the perforations from these high-penetration bombs. Obviously, we can't assess the degree of damage. But given the power of these devices and the technical characteristics of a centrifuge, we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational, because they are fairly precise machines: there are rotors, the vibrations have completely destroyed them. There couldn't have been any nonsense about significant physical damage. So, we can draw a fairly precise technical conclusion. I know the Fordo facility. It's a network of tunnels where different types of activities took place. I can also tell you that what we saw in the images and analyzed more or less corresponds to the enrichment hall.

So that's all the centrifuges at both Fordow and Natanz gone according to the IAEA. Over 15 000 of them were in active operation, 13 000 at Natanz and 2000 at Fordow, with Fordow being especially costly as the advanced IR-6 centrifuges were located there. So the blast pressure and overpressure through the ventilation shafts directly into the enrichment halls destroyed the centrifuges, according to Grossi. Also pretty clear why Iran no longer want to co operate with the IAEA.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 53 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

It’s like a movie script!

He can barely contain his glee at that attack. Compare that to the serious condemnations the IAEA issued against Russia for seizing ZNPP

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 42 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 21 hours ago) (2 children)

Guy's giving out precise BDA on public French radio which he can do thanks to his intricate knowledge of the Fordow facility from inspecting it. While a lot of what Grossi says is publicly known (US hit weak points above enrichment halls with massive bombs, centrifuges are very sensitive to vibrations), it's still quite shocking that he just comes out and says all centrifuges are destroyed due to his knowledge of the facility. Explains Iran's animosity towards the IAEA. Who wants to co operate with an agency like this?

[–] Outdoor_Catgirl@hexbear.net 39 points 21 hours ago

As someone in this thread said, IAEA stands for "Israeli Atomic Espionage Agency"

[–] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 23 points 21 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (1 children)

But - to play devils advocate here - how does he know this? I can see how having this knowledge can lead him to the conclusion that, given how sensitive the equipment is, it’s likely they were made inoperable. But without seeing things firsthand, Grossi’s very definitive statements seem odd to me.

Edit: I suppose these statements could be made if Grossi knows for a fact that the facility itself is much more shallow than the numbers discussed, or if there is much less reinforcement. But still, the context clues indicate he is pointing out that it doesn’t take much to make these thing inoperable, but “destroyed” to me implies to be rendered completely and totally beyond repair.

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 20 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

My question is how does anyone know the layout of the facility from above? How do people know where X or Y room is located under that Earth? Assuming no maps were given, even in person you'd have to have precise and detailed measurements and geolocation data to make decisions on "weak points".

Unless these are things Iran MUST tell the IAEA just as other countries must do (I dont know the rules on "declaring" facilities), I cannot fathom a scenario where IAEA staff were not part of covert attempts to map the facility for such an opportunity.

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 7 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (1 children)

You could map out an entire facility with the sensors on a cell phone between the pedometer, gyroscope, and magnometer. I would hope that Iran would take the cellphones away from the inspectors in the facility, but 1) Mossad seems crazy enough to do something to get around that and 2) I don't have the greatest faith in Iranian internal security at the moment. This is also assuming they haven't compromised someone in the facility or with access it's plans.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 5 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

The existence of Fordow has been known since 2009 (Obama did a big public reveal) and the US has been wargaming it ever since, which led to the invention of the GBU-57. Documents hacked and stolen by Mossad in 2018 publicly revealed the layout and blueprints.

Probably some CIA and Mossad spies got the Intel.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 27 points 20 hours ago (2 children)

I didn't consider the impact of vibrations on centrifuges but this tracks. I used to work with much smaller centrifuges for much less dramatic purposes and if they got unbalanced it was a real problem. Unbalanced, they would start rattling like fuck and you'd have to turn it off before it hit full speed or you'd risk spills.

I wonder if any of the centrifuges were hardened against explosives with shock dampeners. I know the americans did that with the titan missile silos - they built the control/crew system module with a big vibration control dampener to prevent missile launch/earthquake/missile strike from fucking up the silo.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 5 points 14 hours ago

I wonder if any of the centrifuges were hardened against explosives with shock dampeners.

Most likely yes. But each GBU-57 has around 5300lbs, or 2500kg, of plastic bonded explosives, from the one image we got of an unspecified variant. There are seven publicly known variants of the GBU-57: -57/B, -57A/B -57B/B, -57C/B, 57D/B, -57E/B, and -57F/B. All of these feature various differences to the warhead, fuzes, design, and are likely customised for a specific target set, rock/soil type and mission. 10 of those (unknown what variant, I'd guess GBU-57F/B as it's the latest publicly known) going down the 2 main ventilation shafts (5 per shaft, and the other 2 were used to blow through the concrete cap on top of each shaft, for a total of 12 according to the Pentagon) is over 53 000lbs of plastic bonded explosives, each exploding at a set point, to clear a way for another bomb or to cause damage. I don't think any shock dampener is built for that. If the blast wave and subsequent overpressure went through the ventilation shafts and into the centrifuge halls as Grossi seems to suggest given his knowledge of the facility, it's not looking good.

[–] nohaybanda@hexbear.net 26 points 20 hours ago (2 children)

I can see how vibrations might wreck them if they're operational and spinning at bajillion RPM or whatever, but is this still such a high risk if they had been switched off? The attack on Fardow was telegraphed as fuck, it stands to reason they were not running when all fissile material had already been squirreled away somewhere safer in anticipation of the attack. Or is this just cope on my end?

[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 30 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

No I agree. I think if vibrations themselves can destroy a static centrifuge then a simple earthquake could destroy the facility easily, which the facility should be planned for.

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[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 22 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (1 children)

well a centrifuge is a machine that is supposed to spin extremely extremely fast. in order to spin something extremely fast, it needs to be well balanced. if a machine (centrifuge or not) gets jostled, like by say a giant bomb strike happening a few tens of meters away, then internal components could be vibrated out of alignment or pressure waves could stress the system in weird ways (different materials deform under stress different amounts, which can affect tolerances). Those kinds of effects could happen even to a visibly fine piece of equipment.

none of this is a guarantee that this kind of damage has happened, but certainly iran would be wise to test all these machines to see if things are fucked before just spinning them up at full blast.

a kinda silly example of this is an unbalanced top loaded washing machine - even though the washer looks fine, if you put all the clothes on one side it'll make a lot of crazy noises when you start it up.

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[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 22 points 21 hours ago

Fucking pig

[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 70 points 23 hours ago (14 children)

The 5% GDP military spending thing is really insane, probably just trump doing his classic hard-sell tactic again, because at that point you're really just spending money for spending money's sake.

Just note that when Portugal was fighting a 3 front colonial war its military spending peaked at 4.5% in 1968

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 35 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

It should be pointed out European countries can waste 5% GDP on military spending, but that doesn't automatically translate to industrial capacity for weapons and munitions or increased recruitment

Most likely the money will flow into American MIC grift schemes and parallel sectors that are most easily financialized

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 22 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

What's stopping the American MIC, which is still the sole producer of most of the state of the art weapons in the NATO Arsenal, from just jacking up prices on exports? Does NATO even have bylaws regulation the procurement of allied weaponry to avoid that?

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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 53 points 23 hours ago

These NATO countries are heavily reliant on US weapons manufacturers, so it's basically just a protection racket.

[–] LeonTreatsky@hexbear.net 36 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

The 5% GDP figure is insane. I can see countries leaving NATO over it once Europe's economic fallow bites hard.

It's almost as if the plan is to rearm and make sure no one else can develop rather than attempt to keep pace.

[–] Infamousblt@hexbear.net 25 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

I doubt it. They'll just cut benefits to pay for it like they always do. Neolibs only have one playbook

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 31 points 22 hours ago

In addition to the obvious MIC graft, the US wants Europe to be capable of antagonizing Russia on their own, while the US has their hands full with China.

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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 52 points 23 hours ago

Prior to the most recent aid massacre:

“A source in the resistance security in Gaza: The Arrow unit and a force from the investigation department neutralized 17 flour thieves and distributed all quantities to people for free near Bani Suhaila roundabout, Al-Bahr Street, and Al-Saniya roundabout. The thieves are threatened with a severe punishment.”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112468

[–] Lisitsyn@hexbear.net 45 points 23 hours ago (8 children)

Prisons Business Center in Estonia wants to open an e-shop to sell items made by inmates

The Prisons Business Center is preparing to launch an online store to market handicrafts and custom-made products created by inmates. To streamline the process, they are asking the Ministry of Justice to allow them to enter into smaller contracts without the need for public procurement procedures.

The Prisons Business Center is seeking to open an online store to market handicrafts and custom-made products. In a letter sent to the Ministry of Justice and Digital Affairs, Tallinn Prison noted that there are already examples of good practice — under the Stoveman brand, quality metal products made by inmates are currently being sold.

Aaro Nursi, a member of the Tallinn Prison Commission, informed the ministry that prisons — particularly the Prisons Business Center — need more flexible conditions for finding partners. This would help increase inmate employment and better utilize prison production capacity.

"Current public procurement procedures limit Tallinn Prison's ability to respond quickly to smaller orders and to collaborate with local businesses and municipalities," Nursi said.

He pointed out that, for example, laundry and sewing services could be used more frequently by state institutions, but there are no clear guidelines for allowing internal transactions. Smaller or seasonal orders are often missed because potential partners lack the resources to participate in procurement procedures.

Additionally, prisons cover all production costs themselves — from materials to equipment — and therefore need steady and flexible orders to operate production in a sustainable and cost-effective way.

As a result, the Tallinn Prison Commission proposed that small-scale direct contracts be allowed without the standard public procurement process. They also suggested clarifying the rules for internal transactions between state agencies in order to encourage the purchase of services from prisons.

The prison commission also called on the Ministry of Justice to support the marketing and e-commerce development of prisons, including online sales, and to involve inmates in pilot projects aimed at testing more flexible cooperation models.

"We believe this would increase inmate engagement, support reintegration into society and make prisons more visible and trustworthy partners," Nursi said, asking the ministry to initiate discussions on changing public procurement regulations.

The Ministry of Justice, however, was in no hurry to commit. Deputy Secretary General Rait Kuuse responded to Nursi that the proposal would be taken into account in planning the future activities and direction of the Prisons Business Center, but the ministry currently has no plans to amend procurement regulations.

"The purpose of creating the business center was to boost inmate employment and production capacity — goals that align with the strategic aims of the prison service. Today, we can say the business center has been successful in increasing employment and has launched several new cooperation projects with various partners," Kuuse noted.

The Prisons Business Center was established last year, replacing the former state-owned company AS Eesti Vanglatööstus, and operates across all three of Estonia's prisons.

At Tallinn Prison, inmates produce textiles, metal and wood products; the facility also operates an industrial-scale laundry and handles product assembly and packaging. Examples of inmate-made goods include fireplaces, outdoor grills, fireplace accessories, sauna stoves, metal structures and a variety of custom wood products.

Viru Prison's laundry offers a full range of laundry services. It also produces sauna stoves sold under the Stoveman brand and performs various woodworking tasks.

Tartu Prison provides shot blasting and powder coating services.

[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 10 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

estonia really not beating the allegations, fr

i would know, the amount of nato-cool brainworms in the Chihuahua Belt is unprecedented

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 29 points 21 hours ago

Etsy Archipelago

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[–] jackmaoist@hexbear.net 75 points 1 day ago (8 children)

Some Westoid Volunteer in the Ukrainian has been posting selfies of their hidden weapon manufacturing plants and Russians have been geolocating and bombing them. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lksr0v/ru_pov_a_former_ukrainian_volunteer_posted_a/

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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 49 points 23 hours ago (2 children)
[–] Kuori@hexbear.net 36 points 22 hours ago

when he's right, he's right shrug-outta-hecks

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[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 55 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (7 children)

Seeing several polls saying Polish support for Ukraine joining EU has dropped significantly. Like 85% to 35%. Hungary 95% are opposed to them joining EU

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