this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 75 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (4 children)

the newsmega can have a little 'is zohran mao or obama' struggle session as a treat (such as in this subthread) but this is the world newsmega, not the electoralism-mega and so please limit zohran posting to a dull roar. things like zohran struggle sessions are literally exactly what c/electoralism was made for, not the news mega.

along the same lines, zionists and fascists are having a shitfit about zohran and yes it is funny, but let's try to keep the newsmega to only the dankest of memes and the saltiest of zionist tears. we don't need to hear about every DC think tankie pondering the orb with bill ackman.

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 17 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

Half of Hexbear when an American politician won't say "Death to Israel": rage-cry

After Bernie and AOC I don't blame people for being skeptical, but the guy hasn't even been elected yet lol

[–] LoveYourself@hexbear.net 4 points 1 hour ago

Getting conversation of him banned in the newsmega then I am satisfied.

Its bad he's showing up in Arabic media like he's going to stop genocidal American empire from the inside.

[–] Le_Wokisme@hexbear.net 22 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

"little a"

cats can have little a salami, as a treat

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 19 points 2 hours ago

I'm a revisionist

[–] MrPiss@hexbear.net 8 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago) (1 children)

Will you create a separate containment thread for those who want to deep-nesting about Zohran if things get bad enough? A posting thunderdome for electoralism debates.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 6 points 1 hour ago

I would but I'm not a mod on c/electoralism. As we approach November it might make sense to have a mega for American elections. Idk who or what other titles are on the menu for November though

Feel free to make separate posts in c/news about zohran stuff too. C/news content doesn't have to be international

[–] Salem@hexbear.net 18 points 1 hour ago

Kind of a tangent but I looked up history of the dunk tank and then it took me to the Jim Crow museum.

What a sick, evil, depraved society.

I'd like to think things are a bit better, maybe if only a little, but that kind of brazen evil is really horrifying.

Then a synapse fired and that is the reality the oppressed have always found themselves in. Especially right now in Palestine.

[–] newacctidk@hexbear.net 21 points 1 hour ago

Who the fuck put electoralism in my news mega? Thank you @carpoftruth@hexbear.net for diverting it. chavez-salute

[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 13 points 1 hour ago (5 children)

So, what's everyone's take on the possibility of the US taking on China?

[–] JayTreeman@hexbear.net 9 points 42 minutes ago (1 children)

I've heard that they're talking about by 2027. I heard it on a podcast, but the guy seemed to have a lot of bad takes, so I'm not sure how credible it was

[–] KuroXppi@hexbear.net 1 points 13 minutes ago* (last edited 12 minutes ago)

I've heard that date thrown around, respectively attributed to 1) Xi saying that China must be military ready for armed reunification by that date, but not presupposing that armed reunification is the only option and 2) a RAND report that said the US would fall behind the PRC in terms of military capability by this date and the USA could not secure Taiwan in the event of armed reunification. I do not put stock in the former. PRC foreign affairs has always said China would prefer peaceful reunification and has set no fixed date. Taiwan surveys also show that 'keep the status quo' is usually the most preferred option so there is no set timeline for Taiwanese independence afaict, because it would be politically disastrous for any party that set that timer ticking

[–] P1d40n3@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago

Amerikkka is already overstretched. I don't see how the Great Satan goes into a hot war with China. But then, there's still plenty of room for CIA shenanigans.

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 5 points 22 minutes ago

The possibility of the United States taking in China is non-zero, yes. But China is not Iran. You get into a hot war with China, you're fucked. China's air force right now has parity with the United States. Give it a few more years and China will have sixth generation fighters, America won't. China's anti-ship missiles and ballistics could destroy the entire US Pacific fleet and its bases with little effort. The United States lacks the will to pursue a war like this, and the global economy would implode.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 8 points 28 minutes ago

It's so hard for me to imagine the US having anything like the political will to do something like that.

[–] Breath_Of_The_Snake@hexbear.net 1 points 10 minutes ago* (last edited 2 minutes ago)

War with China would inevitably cause trade disruptions that fuck the global economy. Unless the failchild-fash have full control it won’t happen because the capitalists that understand how their bread is buttered would never accept the economic damage outside of a looming existential threat to the status quo and China is more than happy to boil the frog it seems (for now at least).

If the US manages to encircle China, it becomes more likely. The general incompetence of states that need to fall in order to encircle China is the major risk, but they haven’t fallen yet.

[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 35 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (2 children)

Hey, has Mandla Mandela been released from prison in Egypt and allowed to return to South Africa yet? Haven't heard any updates and searching news/results from up to a week ago turn up a blank.

It's not a mystery that the Nazi Apartheid regime has an axe to grind with anyone related to Nelson Mandela in particular, with an abduction/assassination plan even being underway last year prior to the cancellation of the 2024 Freedom Flotilla.

[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 11 points 2 hours ago

It's not a mystery that the Nazi Apartheid regime has an axe to grind with anyone related to Nelson Mandela in particular

Yeah don't let the pleasantries trick you about these people who were "always against apartheid"

Look to Haiti to see how they really feel

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 16 points 3 hours ago

Wait WHAT? I had no idea he got arrested holy shit that slipped under my radar

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