this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023
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It can go one of a few ways.

  1. Apart from the few subs that remain offline, it'll basically be back to normal. Those that do remain offline indefinitely just get forcibly reopened or recreated by admins, especially huge subreddits like /r/videos. Smaller ones just get redicted to /r/topicnew or some other creative name.

  2. A lot of subreddits and more importantly moderators and users leave the site permanently. In order for this to happen however, there'd have to be a consensus alternative, which there isn't ATM. Otherwise, these communities are pretty much lost forever unless the mods put a message to go to X alternative service in the "subreddit is private" banner. Tbh, I don't think people are gonna stomach losing years of their lives in an instant so they'll just re create subreddits unless the mods provide an alternative.

No matter what though, they're not backing down on the effective removal of the API (still leaving the sneaky clause "you can pay us if you want but it'll be a king's ransom" for AI, even though they can just trawl the web manually lol). They'll probably announce some crappy customization features to hoodwink those who don't know what an API is and lie to them and say it's "API v2" or whatever.

I just honestly don't know how it's going to shake out and I'm scared im going to lose these communities. I don't give a single solitary fuck about Reddit the company anymore, and I never did really. I just hope all of the subreddits find a new home and don't just shrug their shoulders and say "welp, guess that's it guys".

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[–] CodingAndCoffee@lemmy.world 43 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Squabbles seems to have not hit user critical mass. Tildes looks like it's doing well.

The Lemmy + Kbin fediverse seems to be taking off like a rocket and has the best overall chance IMO of becoming the home for the best parts of Reddit's community.

[–] CodingAndCoffee@lemmy.world 25 points 2 years ago (4 children)

I want to add, that my wife has been a "scab" throughout all this and has been active on reddit, trying to show me memes and such.

The content she's been showing me has been stale, old stuff I saw back in 2020. Same recycled jokes, same memes. Reddit is in a mode of hard cope right now and I doubt it gets better if we don't return.

[–] NevermindNoMind@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago

My wife was on Reddit for about 9 years when she got hooked on TikTok about a year ago. In her words, Reddit had become boring. She still checks the local community sub, but that is about it. Just worth pointing out that Reddit is facing pressure from two ends. A lot of the more casual users, and the popular content creators, are on TikTok and other video centric platforms. Reddit can't compete there, as much as they try. The dedicated users they did have, those interested in community and discussion, well Reddit just angered much of that group.

Prior to the blackout, I was angry with Reddit. Since the blackout I've taken a step back and realized how much garbage Reddit is filled with (ads, shitposts, promoted content, etc), and how much I want to find something better. Before the blackout I was planning to quit Reddit out of anger. Now I plan to quit because, as my wife said, Reddit is boring and I'm excited to explore what comes next.

[–] macarthur_park@lemmy.world 10 points 2 years ago (2 children)

I want to add, that my wife has been a “scab” throughout all this and has been active on reddit, trying to show me memes and such.

Seems like grounds for a divorce.

I kid of course! My girlfriend is staying off Reddit, but she’s definitely missing it and hasn’t found a good substitute for her mix of subreddits yet. It’s especially rough since twitter’s gone downhill, and that was her other main scrollable content.

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[–] Marxine@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

On the 3rd meme recycle people wil get bored already. It probably takes less than a month to happen, as long as the "community strike" continues.

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[–] Alkalyon@lemmy.ml 20 points 2 years ago (5 children)

Squabbles

Isn't this developed by one person, isn't open source and forbids NSFW in general? That is never going to go well.

Tildes

No mobile app and no ActivityPub so it's a very specialised. Additionally I don't like the UI at all and I've read this in multiple threads here as well.

Lemmy + Kbin

Both are show the same content as they are federated so it's up to who prefers what really. I prefer Lemmy, but anything is fine.

[–] CodingAndCoffee@lemmy.world 11 points 2 years ago (2 children)

re Squabbles: yes, hard agree.

re Tildes: yes, also hard agree. The invitation-only method of growing the community also is draconian and it's going to hit all the scaling problems a traditional site does.

These and others are why you're finding me with you here in the fediverse. I am with you mi beratna.

[–] Alkalyon@lemmy.ml 13 points 2 years ago (3 children)

These and others are why you’re finding me with you here in the fediverse.

I've been here for a week and it already feels like home!

[–] Ataraxia@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago (3 children)

I think people underestimate how much people are unlikely to go back to an abusive relationship when they've found one that isn't. Reddit was a bad habit. I am actually going to be contributing to communities here once I figure it all out. The worst that could happen here so far is not getting any comments or votes which is fine by me. On reddit I could post a picture of my cat and someone could comment "insert random derogatory term" for no reason lol! So far so good here.

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[–] agreyworld@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

Yeah, seriously looked at Reddit alternatives when I saw a post from a big sub about going dark and how they were considering moving to tildes - but then found it was invite only. Seems silly for a million+ sub to migrate somewhere invite only

[–] bappity@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

I reckon a lot of the platforms popping up with closed ecosystems will stagnate after a while. ActivityPub is brilliant and I hope more platforms adopt it!

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[–] SeatBeeSate@lemmy.world 10 points 2 years ago (1 children)

This isn't going to be a great migration. More of a great fragmentation.

[–] arbiter329@lemmy.ml 10 points 2 years ago (3 children)

Which is what should happen in my opinion.

Let small communities be small, let them govern themselves.

[–] average650@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

As long as they aren't too small. There's a critical mass below which they're too empty.

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[–] KillaBeez@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

While I’m enjoying my time here and I’m honestly shocked with the amount of engagement so far, I just don’t see the “fedaverse” ever gaining any mainstream traction. It’s unintuitive and the barrier of entry is way too high. Even googling “Lemmy” doesn’t bring up useful results.

Something like squabbles has a better chance for mainstream appeal, but it would need a miracle as it’s only one duder

That being said, I’ll still be here!

[–] Monkeyhog@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago (6 children)

Honestly, the lack of mainstream appeal is part of why I like it.

[–] rolaulten@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Just remember - as content is generated SEO is naturally going to improve, which will start to bring people into kbin/lemmy via Google.

As people spend time here marketing types will start to notice. Shortly thereafter we will see bots. To me, how we as a community handle those bots will be the real "does this experiment survive" test.

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[–] ampcold@beehaw.org 25 points 2 years ago (1 children)

It would not crash and burn but rather be messy and decrease in quality gradually over time. Sort of like Twitter.

[–] LinkOpensChest_wav@lemmy.one 13 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Digg still exists, so I have no doubt that reddit will continue to have its rotting corpse propped up and picked at, even after a lot of its biggest contributors have left the site

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[–] StrawberryCake@beehaw.org 18 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I honestly hope that some kind of community remains here

[–] CodingAndCoffee@lemmy.world 22 points 2 years ago (3 children)

It will. I've been on Reddit 16+ years and I have no itch to return or reopen the app. Meanwhile I'm getting nothing done for work because I have Mastodon, kbin, and lemmy open. The sticky/addictive power is here already.

[–] FartSmarter@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I’m an old head Reddit user like you. Are you feeling like Lemmy is feeling like the early days of Reddit. Smaller, more of a community feel?

[–] nieceandtows@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago (6 children)

I’ve been with Reddit for 10 years, and Lemmy feels like what Reddit was around 8-7 years ago. Reddit front page posts used to be in 3-4 digit upvotes max before they changed the vote counting mechanism. Lemmy is already having 3 digit upvoted posts with hundreds of comments. My complaints of Lemmy are purely technical, and hope they get resolved before people get frustrated enough.

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[–] BigUwU@lemmy.world 17 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Personally, I’m happy where things are now. I came over to Lemmy because of Reddit Third Party App drama, and now I’m staying because I realized that I’m spending much less time on my phone using the less popular Lemmy.

[–] markipol@beehaw.org 17 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Not gonna lie I think I'm actually spending more time on Lemmy than Reddit, participating and trying to get discussions going, making content, etc. Just to try and get it active lol

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[–] FaceDeer@lemmy.ml 16 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I think we'll see a temporary "return to normalcy" after the protest finishes and most subs come back online. But come June 30 and the end of third-party apps, we'll see a bunch of users come back to Lemmy/Kbin again.

In a way, this seems like the best way of driving things. The protest has raised awareness and got a ton of development work going, and then there's going to be a respite giving instances time to prepare themselves for the second surge.

[–] redditors_re_racist@lemmy.ml 5 points 2 years ago

I think we’ll see a temporary “return to normalcy” after the protest finishes and most subs come back online. But come June 30 and the end of third-party apps, we’ll see a bunch of users come back to Lemmy/Kbin again.

Knowing corporate, reddit is playing good cop/bad cop with app devs right now. Apollo and RIF had huge targets on their backs for being popular, profitable, and developers who aren't afraid to speak out.

meanwhile over at baconreader there has been radio silence from the devs, largely because i think they are cutting a deal with reddit for a much better rate in return for knuckling under. pricing terms of course will be under a NDA

[–] Doggylife@lemmy.world 14 points 2 years ago (2 children)

As a few people have said already, I think it'll slowly become more crap and alternatives will slowly bring in people who get sick of it.

They're hoping for IPO and once that's done, they'll be much less forgiving when it comes to cash grabs. I can imagine them doing things like getting rid of old.reddit, not allowing the hiding of suggested posts, ads which are very targeted and intrusive.

I saw an article on the official Reddit Inc website talking about the use context in advertising, where advertiser's can change their ad based on the context of the thread. It doesn't say how they're implementing this but I could imagine a situation where they put ads directly into threads. Either way you'll start to see ads using wording which mimics the subreddits you're in or the comments you write.

I have the feeling the reddits decisions are just going to get worse as long as they can get away with it.

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[–] KillaBeez@lemmy.world 14 points 2 years ago (2 children)

I’m honestly done with Reddit and I really hope enough people find a new home outside of it when this is all said and done. Hanging out on here has made me realize how toxic and mentally draining Reddit actually is.

I think Reddit will continue to grow into a normie cesspool of children and mentality I’ll folks and will eventually go the way of FB and Twitter where the interesting and saine folks will dig out new communities in some other place to be determined

[–] thegameoverguy@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

I couldn’t agree more with your opinion on Reddit. Over the past 10 years it has become so much more toxic and unwelcoming. It is hivemind culture and it is only going to get worse over time. The reporting on the Boston bombings should have been writing on the walls and that was a good while ago. Looking at it now, I just can’t believe how depressing it was just doom scrolling on that app daily.

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[–] Perdendosi@lemmy.world 14 points 2 years ago (4 children)

I'm voting for #1. Even the subs that remain offline will be replaced.

But there's a caveat-- I think Reddit will start to suck more quickly than it has, and, without some core mods and content providers, will become pretty much a shell of itself in a few years. Maybe it's before it's public; maybe it's after.

[–] Mog_fanatic@lemmy.world 10 points 2 years ago

Yeah if the whole Netflix thing has taught us anything it's that people don't want to change and will put up with being treated like absolute garbage to remain in their comfortable space. Reddit will be fine. But I do hope enough people leave and stay here to start a new thriving community long term.

[–] goldenarchmage@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

I think you're wildly overestimating that timetable - over on that site I'm a member of a sub where you need intimate knowledge of the subject to moderate it effectively (and because of the nature of the subject it gets a lot of trolls to put it mildly). With no community mods that sub would become a cesspit within days, as would subs that are currently the focus of the alt-right, such as science, LGBT subs etc. It's going to be a bin fire if the community mods leave - you'll feel so dirty you'll have to take a shower after every visit to your previously favourite subs...

[–] macarthur_park@lemmy.world 7 points 2 years ago

Hard agree. A few years back I was a member of a local subreddit that only had one mod. It was small enough that they were able to keep up with spam/moderating. Then one day it started getting brigaded by one of the racist subreddits. One of the many ones that had an unrepeatable name (variant on a racial slur) that’s since been banned.

We later found out that sole mod had gone camping for a few days, so there was no one to remove all the explicit racism and ban people. They immediately cleaned up and notified admins when they got back, but I can see how quickly a community can turn awful if you don’t have dedicated mods.

[–] AgentGoldfish@lemmy.world 7 points 2 years ago (2 children)

I was also a mod over there (recreated the same community here, but it'll take time to fill in if it ever does). In that sub, despite well over a million subscribers, less than 200 people wrote the valuable comments. If a sizable chunk of those 200 leave, then the sub dies. And several wrote to modmail about the fact that the sub did not participate in the blackout and that they were done with the sub (and frankly, I don't blame them, I'm also out).

A million members doesn't matter if the couple hundred experts pack up and leave.

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[–] Kilograph@lemmy.world 13 points 2 years ago

Ends? Its already over. You, me, and many who have replied here have moved on. Reddit isn't going anywhere but its just another site many of us will slowly see as irrelevant or uninteresting as the weeks and months tick by. For a short while in my past, DeviantArt was crazy cool. Reddit had a good run. Is Lemmy the crazy cool thing now? I dunno but I'm certainly enjoying it for the moment.

[–] silversnow__@lemmy.ca 12 points 2 years ago (3 children)

you cant really return to normalcy from this, but i dont think most users care. whenever i get into a casual convo about the fediverse online, the general consensus from people is 'yeah reddit isnt going to die, i'll stay on reddit for my communities'. so if the majority think reddit isn't going to die and continue using the site, it probably wont die! it'll just go back to normal with a few million less users (which actually isnt that much for a big site) unless spez hilariously fucks up

really the fediverse is just a lot of people who like tech at the end of the day, not the average web user

[–] greatwhitebuffalo41@slrpnk.net 6 points 2 years ago

I agree, we're getting an insane amount of hate on our sub for remaining restricted indefinitely. The general users do not seem to care about 3rd party apps or that Reddit can just bend us over at any time.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 11 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Why did anybody expect reddit to back down on this. Unless reddit loses a significant portion of its user base then they have no reason to care. Currently, there really isn't any viable alternative infrastructure that could absorb millions of new users. People are going to make a fuss for a bit, but if they enjoyed using reddit before then they'll come back to using it sooner or later.

Frankly, I don't know why people keep fixating on this. I've been using Lemmy for over three years. I use it because I enjoy the community here, and I don't really think about what reddit is or isn't doing.

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[–] gimlithepirate@lemmy.world 11 points 2 years ago

I think the mod tools are what will blow reddit up ultimately. It's why I'm here.

The third party apps are a hard self own, but I don't use reddit because of third party apps. I use third party apps because the reddit official app is... Special. If they'd forced me to sue their app I would be annoyed, but still interested in reddit.

If you destroy the key tools that enable volunteer moderators to manage communities, the community will die. Example: two of my favorite subs were legaladvice, and bestoflegaladvice. Both required extensive moderating to function (and even then, it was prone to shit shows particularly at LA). No mod tools would make it unmoderatable... Which turns you into Voat pretty fast.

So, I don't think reddit dies July 1. I think reddit spends the next year turning into Twitter, and lemmy has to run as fast as it can to scale.

Hopefully, this is my last post on lemmy talking about reddit, but I doubt I'm that lucky.

[–] waspentalive@lemmy.ml 10 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Personally, I will only be going back to Reddit if I need help with some specific thing and I can't find it in Lemmy anywhere. And only for that thread.

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[–] BendyLemmy@lemmy.ml 9 points 2 years ago

Meanwhile, as the subs are down there are people attempting to replicate them here.

So if you like Dadjokes, hop over to DadJokes

[–] UnbelievableCloud@lemmy.ml 8 points 2 years ago (2 children)

According to Reddit’s internal memo, they expect this to blow over Wednesday with most subreddits returning, and they reported no drop in revenue so far. So they’re not likely to give in yet.

What needs to happen is that the blackout needs to continue indefinitely, and more communities need to start migrating to lemmy/kbin. If we move the content here, people will move too.

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[–] Jezebelley@lemmy.world 7 points 2 years ago (3 children)

It's going to end with a relatively small reddit exodus with most returning to reddit in a few weeks. People are lazy, and will concede to the API changes just like they all did with Twitter. Remember when Musk took over and made all those dramatic changes heavily monetizing the platform? Everyone was crying how Twitter will die and that they were all quitting. Well guess what? Almost all of them went back to Twitter anyway and now use the official app just like Musk wanted. Reddit will be no different sadly.

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[–] dethmetaljeff@lemmy.ml 6 points 2 years ago (3 children)

For me, it's no more reddit on mobile but I'm not blocking it any time soon. If it's a Google result, so be it, there's still useful content over there.

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[–] LinkOpensChest_wav@lemmy.one 6 points 2 years ago

I don't think there has to be a consensus alternative. People are finding different spaces. For some it's this, for others it's raddle or Tildes...

I think part of the problem with reddit is it got too big. It might be a good thing if things become less centralized.

[–] DarkSpectrum@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (3 children)

I don't think a consensus alternative is necessarily required. It might be best for the masses to be split amongst the many alternatives giving each one an opportunity to grow, improve and potentially rise up as a result of this event. I for one will not be using Reddit at all except for very specific sources of information which I will probably just scrape and store offline anyway.

I also like the concept of fediverse instances being local, meaning the internet is becoming truly more physically decentralized with local home based servers providing a base for local user registration and content creation/consumption. This has the potential for users to start 'filtering' their online experience to content created by the people in their local communities versus just a vast pool of global users.

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