If, and I guess it's a big if, if this is some hybrid warfare scheme from russia then there must be conflicting powers at work in the Kremlin right?
I just can't get my gead around anything positive coming out from this for putin.
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If, and I guess it's a big if, if this is some hybrid warfare scheme from russia then there must be conflicting powers at work in the Kremlin right?
I just can't get my gead around anything positive coming out from this for putin.
there must be conflicting powers at work in the Kremlin right?
For now. There's only so many windows (of opportunity).
Usually I’m on this train. There’a a YouTuber called What’s Going on With Shipping that discusses the collision.
In this view, it shows navigation tracks for both ships over the last year. It looks like the Solong (dark green) routinely follows that track, and the Stena Immaculate, which was at anchor, happened to be anchored in the path.
Not saying it’s impossible this was intentional, but more likely the captain wasn’t paying attention, given how ‘routine’ the back and forth had become.
Usually the only conflicting power in Kremlin is the air resistance on some poor fucker's way down from his window.
edit: the positives for putin are kind of obvious. one tanker's worth of oil obviously isn't enough to hinder anyone's supply, but oil spill has serious economic effects on the neighbouring ports. It's no suprise this happened in NATO waters.
edit2: just realized it wasnt oil but jet fuel that was being carried...
Tbh, how likely is it that two big ships with sonar, radar, radio communications and (possibly impaired) visibility on both sides collide by freak accident? Impossible, no of course not. But likely? Very unlikely...
The chance of the captain and first mate just being drunk or really irresponsible ("the sea is big, what's the worst that can happen?") seems way more likely to me here than some nefarious plan. I just don't see what would be gained from it.
The various cable cuts related to russian ships are definitely suspicious though. There the motive would be clear - it sends a threatening message to other countries about how vulnerable their infrastructure is, potentially making them less likely to stand up to russian aggression. And the cost to fix the cables is much higher than the cost of a low-medium chance the (old, leaking, close to decommissioning) ship gets impounded.
But then, there is one heck of a lot of marine traffic out there.
When you turn up the volumes, eventually even really improbable things can happen.
I'm not making any judgements either way.
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