this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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edit: changed title from 'False Fukushima Fears' to 'Exaggerated Fukushima Fears', sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week's preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @cynesthesia@hexbear.net, with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!


In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m^3^ of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn't want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen's isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body's cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that's why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.


Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won't be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water's release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.


It's that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 5) 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] Catradora_Stalinism@hexbear.net 34 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Im done with the fuckheads on sjw, imma read about something important

[–] iridaniotter@hexbear.net 34 points 2 years ago

Hex-chan complaining about SJWs. Proof of their 4chan origins!

very-intelligent

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[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 34 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Curious about how the new Blowback season didn't talk about that guy with a shard of metal in his head sneaking around kidnapping soldiers.

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[–] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (8 children)

Hey someone have a megathread on American interferences in Russia in the 90s?

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (1 children)
[–] nat_turner_overdrive@hexbear.net 34 points 2 years ago

ukraine's PR is super easy because it's just doing that to everything. We're running out of troops and munitions? Nuh uh, THEY'RE running out of troops and munitions!! We're planning to pogrom any Ukrainians who stayed behind when Russia took their town? NUH UH, THEY'RE gonna genocide Ukrainians if they win!!

[–] edge@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (8 children)

This war won't end until at least January 20, 2025, will it? Maybe November 5, 2024 if we're lucky.

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[–] cynesthesia@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago

I feel like hurting my brain. Can anyone point me to any summary stories worth reading about the current status of biden/hunter/burisma/ukraine corruption? Casual googling shows all kinds of Fox news daily mail bullshit and I don't trust them. MoA periodically talks about the topic but I don't find their posts very good as an intro.

[–] Cigarette_comedian@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (1 children)

On the Ukrainian front, nothing new.

[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Really? My western mainstream media is telling me that the capture of Robotyne means that the Russian defense lines have almost been breached and that the counteroffensive is going to go a lot faster now.

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[–] Zrc@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (2 children)

if you respond to people and then immediately block them, fuck you

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[–] cynesthesia@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (5 children)

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/escaping-attrition-ukraine-rolls

Good article on the military situation in ukraine now. starts with a summary of strategy options for each side, discusses how ukraine is in a situation where they don't have good options beyond attacking, discusses status of the counteroffensive thus far

Ukraine had aspirations of breaking open this grinding front and reopening mobile operations - escaping the attritional struggle and driving on operationally meaningful targets - but these efforts have so far come to naught. For all the lofty boasts of demonstrating the superior art of maneuver, Ukraine still finds itself trapped in a siege, painfully trying to break open a calcified Russian position without success.

With significant Russian asymmetries in population size, industrial capacity, strike capability, and - let us be blunt - sovereignty and decision-making freedom, an attritional-positional struggle is simply bad math for Ukraine, and yet that is precisely the sort of war in which it has become trapped. The confluence of these two factors - Ukrainian territorial maximalism combined with asymmetrical Russian advantages in a positional-attritional struggle - forces Ukraine to seek a way to break open the front and restore a state of operational fluidity.

A frontal attack against a prepared defense without the element of surprise is generally considered a poor choice, but here is Ukraine not only attempting such an attack but even launching it against a backdrop of global celebration and phantasmagorical expectations.

I’ve seen a variety of analysts and writers lately arguing that the insertion of additional Ukrainian units into the Robotyne sector signals the next phase of the operation. This is nonsense. Ukraine is still mired in the first phase [attempting to break through Russian lines]. What has happened is instead that the attrition of their first echelon brigades has forced them to commit their second (and third) wave to complete the tasks of the opening phase. The initial attack, led by the 47th Brigade, was intended to create a breach in the Russian screening line around Robotyne and advance to the main Russian belt further to the south. They failed, and the additional brigades earmarked for exploitation - the 116th, 117th, 118th, 82nd, 33rd, and more - are now being systematically fed in to keep the pressure on.

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[–] puff@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (1 children)

A time traveller appears in your room. They say that in the future, the world order will be determined by an EXTREMELY old, anti-imperialist Russian man named Vladimir, who lived in the Soviet Union. "OH MY GOD, LENIN?!" you cry. The time traveller smirks. putin-wink

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[–] Teekeeus@hexbear.net 33 points 2 years ago (8 children)

Support for German government at all-time low, poll finds, as concerns over economy grow

Support for Germany’s liberal- left coalition government slumped to an all-time low of 36%, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) reached a record-high 22%, a new poll by the country's public broadcaster has found.

The figures released on Thursday night put support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party (SPD) at 16%, down one point from the beginning of last month.

The SPD’s coalition partner, the environmentalist Greens, also lost one point, falling back to a 14% voter share. The junior coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), was at 6%.

Germany’s main opposition, the conservative alliance of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), was favored by 29% of respondents.

The far-right AfD, which has been under surveillance by the intelligence for posing a threat to democracy, recorded a new high of 22% support, according to the ARD DeutschlandTrend survey.

The poll found that economy has become a top concern for German voters, and 46% said they expect that the economic situation will be worse in a year than it is today.

Some 26% of the voters cited immigration as their top concern, followed by climate change (18%), social injustice and poverty (16%), and the government’s energy policy (9%).

The far-right AfD has doubled its vote share since the last election in 2021, benefiting from broad dissatisfaction with the coalition government’s policies.

Some 79% of those surveyed were either less than happy or not happy at all with the center-left liberal coalition government, according to the latest poll. Only 19% of voters said the government was performing well.

Leading figures of the AfD repeatedly criticized Scholz government’s stance on Russia-Ukraine war, opposed sending weapons to Ukraine, and argued that ending energy imports from Russia was against Germany’s national interests.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago

GUATEMALA

The Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Court has overturned the decision of the registrar of voters to suspend the registration of the Semilla Movement, the party of the country's president-elect, Bernardo Arévalo.

The decision restores the party's legal status.

[–] WilsonWilson@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago (3 children)

The Guardian says the new Russian war film "The Witness" is a complete failure and is playing to empty movie theaters.

Terrible writing, incompetent acting, poor lighting, no production value, complete and utter lies and propaganda paid for by Vlad Putler himself and if you watch it there is a non zero probability you will go blind.

Some other western reviews-

Reddit:

Witness, First Russia propaganda film about Ukraine invasion plays to empty theatres, nets $140,000

NYPost:

No one in Russia is going to see a Kremlin propaganda film fictionalizing and justifying the invasion in Ukraine

Seattle Times:

The Ukraine war, propaganda-style, is coming to Russian movie screens.

After reading these great reviews I'de like to see the film but so far haven't been able to locate a copy.

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[–] Teekeeus@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Moon of Alabama: As The U.S. Wages War On It China Reacts With Defiance

Just as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo returns from China her department issues new restrictions on chip deliveries

Boringly predictable

The attempt is to prevent 'leaks' of chips from countries like the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia to Russia and China. But, as [MoA] noted yesterday, China is already making chips of equal capacity

China is not only autarkic in making chips but now also in making the delicate machines needed to make chips

Positive news if true (unless you're an american chip maker)

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[–] nat_turner_overdrive@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

So this analogy just struck me and the more I think about it the more it seems apt.

Hexbears are to the Harlem Globetrotters as the Lemmyverse Libs are to the Washington Generals

Playing this any time you view a thread with libs getting trounced in it

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