this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2025
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Next 3.5 years if we are lucky.
The last 6 months have been the longest decade of my life.
You won't ever need to vote again
Luck is also a component in how long Trump lives ; though he's not that old.
OK, I'll say it differently - luck is also a component in how long Putin lives, and that's likely less. When he dies, there's gonna be change. In USA too. In Russia - maybe not for the better immediately, but that will be a power transfer, which hasn't happened since 1999. Even if to someone of his daughters.
I don't subscribe to any of stupid theories of "Kremlin towers' balance", "businessmen vs patriots" and such, but the point stands, and the previous power transfer, from Yeltsin to Putin, despite them being the same faction, changed a lot and fast.
Which could mean some of the blackmail material leaking, or the direction of blackmail changing, or other ties being restructured. Which would pull the rug from many of Russia-aligned parties in the west, and it would be interesting to see whether Democrats or Republicans are affected more, in case of US, and whether local alt-right parties or the orderly centrists in EU are affected more. The common belief is that it's the latter in the US and the former in the EU, but I think we'll be surprised.
Now, Russia is small compared to other parties, but big enough to make waves in case of such an event.