Hi all, Something that I'm curious about with regards to China and the CPC are the different ideological factions that exist in the present day, particularly with regards to economic strategy, at home and abroad.

Going off of @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net's many useful comments in the news mega regarding Chinese trade policy, its commitment to dollarization, and continuing the export-led growth model that it has benefited from, I am curious to know what kind of discussions are taking place within the CPC between what I assume to be various liberal and left factions related to these topics. I know the party is lock-step when it comes time to make decisions, but surely there are many CPC members within the national congress who have differing views about how they should navigate the evolving international situation with a belligerent US and a global south that desperately wants more sovereignty and an end to Western unilateralism.

Is there any way a Westerner can be privvy to these kind of conversations within the Chinese government? Thanks!

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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

If you look at Xi’s career history, he’s always been a moderate.

Back in 2007, when the Party Secretary of Shanghai, Chen Liangyu was opposing the central government’s order (Hu-Wen administration) to curb spending, there was a call to rebel with the Southeast Five Provinces. Xi (who was Party Secretary of Zhejiang at the time) chose the moderate stance of maintaining neutrality with both sides.

After Chen was toppled, Han Zheng became the acting party chief for a few months before the position of the Party Secretary of Shanghai went to Xi. That’s how Xi’s moderate stance got him the Shanghai position, a very important position before being promoted to the national leadership role.

By the way, Han Zheng was the one who attended Trump’s inauguration this year and led the negotiations with the US lol.

Also, Bo Xilai - who was initially groomed to be the party successor - was a lot more left than Xi, until the scandal that also toppled him and paved the way for Xi’s ascent to party leadership.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

If you look at Xi’s career history, he’s always been a moderate.

Is that true relative to where the party was before he took over?

Also, are there any indications about Xi's successor? Obviously he's got time in the role still to go, but he's also quite old. Is that sort of thing obvious, opaque, too hard to determine in advance?

As always, appreciate your insight into the CPC's operations.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Well, Xi intended to curb private capital and I have given him the credit and defended him many times.

However, he is also responsible for some of the biggest misallocation of capital in the world’s history. The Monetization of Shantytown Redevelopment in 2015 (棚改货币化) will go down in history as the culprit for perhaps the most frenzied speculation in property market, where so much wealth were sucked into the real estate sector and would never be recovered. It is one of the reasons why the local governments are so heavily indebted at the moment, and why we have a potentially serious deflation problem that if not resolved, could easily spread to various other sectors.

The lack of central planning was palpable. They always wait until the last minute before taking action, and often times it is too little too late. It is very clear that the central government has lost the ability to curb the authority and recklessness of the local/provincial/municipal governments. Just look at how Shanghai openly defied Zero Covid and allowed three years of national effort to be wasted.

Which is why I always laugh when people say China has some super long-term plan to achieve this or that. The opposite is true! China has some truly incredible crisis management skills that have so far prevented a deep crisis from erupting, and this is truly impressive if you understand what they did. However, without resolving the fundamental issues, it is simply kicking the can down the road. A complete revamp of the system is required and no amount of macro/micromanagement policy adjustments can allow you to escape that.

By the way, the promise to curb private capital has been overturned recently. I am VERY neutral about Xi right now. All I can see are the libs in charge these days.