Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I've seen a few people say that closing the Straight of Hormuz would possibly be a bigger issue for China than it would be for the US, or at least that it would be strongly against China's economic interests for that to happen. My question then: isn't it especially important for China to keep their ally in power and prevent pro-US regime change so that the US-western block couldn't deliberately close the Straight to harm them in economic warfare?
If I understand correctly from what I've read throughout this thread, Iran hasn't shown proper urgency in asking China for weapons (in comparison with Pakistan's relationship with China, for example), but I'm surprised China hasn't urged them more? Perhaps they have privately and Iran's leadership was doofy enough to actively refuse them (I could certainly buy it at this point), but it seems like China would benefit from chatting them up again after all this and talking them into being smart before they end up in western hands.
That would only be an issue for China if Iran were to totally close off the Strait of Hormuz. A much more likely scenario is that Iran would only close off the 'Strait to US/Zionist/Western shipping, similar to what Yemen did with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
This means they can’t use mines. That means America will come to force the strait to “ensure freedom of navigation” and war with the US navy directly, which will use their air superiority to destroy the Iranian coastal regions
In an all-out-war type scenario, Iran could fire significant amounts of missiles at US military bases throughout the region. It also has anti-ship missiles that would make the US Navy not want to play that game. And at that point, Iran would do a full closure. A full closure of the Strait could cause oil prices to hit 200 to even 500 dollars per barrel. That's why Washington is still unlikely to want to get involved in that large of a conflict with Iran. Washington has too much to lose in that scenario and is unlikely to escalate to reaching it. So, more than likely, a Strait closure would be limited.
BREAKING: I’m closing the Gay of Hormuz for Pride Month
Of course I support LGBT
Anything like that would be happening entirely behind the scenes and would only be announced if both parties found it beneficial to do so. It is entirely possible that China plans to send something over. It is also entirely possible that the reformist worms still want to risk getting kicked in the face again for another chance to taste American cock.
If China is preparing for what us plebs can see coming, which it very well appears to be, it will continue reducing its reliance on fossil fuels (such as their massive solar building projects) and improve land routes to friendly countries that can offset the lost production should Hormuz close (or some other event cut China off from the middle east via sea).
It should be in China's interests to prepared for a closure of the strait. If it really sees the importance of protecting Iran from Western influence, it cannot itself be a barrier to that route of escalation.
Closing Hormuz (or mining it) is as much a military strategy and an economic one. Placing mines in the strait would force american ships to approach well within engagement distance of advanced Iranian anti-ship missiles should they wish to de-mine it. Right now American warships are sat near Oman just out of range since they have no need to approach.
It would also trap naval forces in the Persian gulf. Any american ships (or submarines) that enter the gulf for purposes of, say, intercepting ballistic missiles or protecting civilian traffic would be cut off from their fleet with no hope of rescue should they take terminal damage. Whilst this is unlikely to occur with an aircraft carrier, destroyers have capable countermeasures and defensive weapons for combatting anti ship missiles and other Iranian anti-ship weapons and could theoretically operate in the gulf for a short time.
Without the strait, there would be little reason for American ships to put themselves at any risk near Iran. That alone should make Beijing wary of discouraging Iran in that regard; any damage to the US navy is damage they may carry into a battle with China, thanks to how long the US takes to build warships.