People always frame this shit as, "What ya gonna do against tanks and drones?!" Not a goddamned thing. But let's just say the military infrastructure would collapse in weeks without civilian help.

I could go on all night, but there was an excellent post on /r/liberalgunowners that outlined dozens of ways to fight the military on the streets. Much of it was, "Those tanks and drones don't drive or maintain themselves."

The fascists absolutely do not have the numbers.

I was specifically speaking about the percent of sub-population that's armed. There's pretty good evidence that the average conservative (and particularly the conservative base) is also a gun owner than the average liberal base. Gun violence is a liberal plank.

As for who has the guns, you're probably grossly underestimating how well armed non-republicans might be.

I don't think so; I've been a gun owner since I've been an adult, and I'm pretty progressive. I've spent a lot of time at ranges across the US, and it's pretty clear that that population leans right. And if liberals own guns and aren't going to the range to practice... well.

Furthermore, we've seen how ineffective the US military was at handling insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Quite effective in Iraq; Iraq was both unjustified, and concluded. Major combat operations coincided within 3 months, and we pulled out in 2011.

But the major factor in Afghanistan is that Afghanistan were a generation of trained insurgents with a decade of history of fighting insurgencies against invaders. We trained them; we trained and funded them, and helped them set up a robust cell-based insurgency. It was essentially a core component of Afghan culture by the time the US invaded. Are you trained, lean, and have a cell network set up? Anyone you know? How many people do you know, personally, who've ever had to suffer from anything more inconvenient than a temporary internet outage? If the US government cracks down on major carriers and network providers, can you even contact any of those people?

The US public is not the Afghan public. We're nowhere near as hardened and tough. As importantly, we're divided, and there's a vast swath of the center of people who mostly don't give enough of a shit. Even if there were voting shenanigans in 2024, enough people voted for a guy who explicitly said during campaigning that he wanted to be a dictator that it was close. When the left rises up, they're not only going to be fighting the government, they're going to be fighting other right-wing fuck-jobs, and worse, their uncommitted, lazily leftist neighbor is likely to turn them in because an uprising might upset little Crumpsnatcher's soccer practice.