this post was submitted on 12 May 2025
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MeanwhileOnGrad
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Of course this person is full of shit, but there's a grain of truth in what they're saying since Russia didn't suffer from the sanctions nearly as much as expected. I don't mean to legitimize tankie talking points, but sanctions against have been a failure as far according to their stated goals and will likely continue to be if I'm not grossly misunderstanding the situation.
Sanctions arent a magical stop when not everyone follows them, Russia still trades with China, India and some others. Europe is still buying their gas. This has avoided a worst-case scenario for them but their limited buyers know this and can get more from Russia for cheaper. Gazprom stock is down 20% over 5y. The point isnt to kill them just weaken. Sanctions are a large reason behind Russian inflation which as of March 2025 was at 10.3% yoy. Theyre why protests still happen even in Moscow despite the fear. Hell a couple years ago now their main finance minister tried to resign because of the sanctions and war effects on the long-term economic outlook in Russia.
Usually high inflation is a driver of domestic upset at those in power. Biden had a couple months around 9% despite a yoy of around 5% and he got skewered for it. Sanctions have also allowed the capture and sale of some oligarch assets to help fund Ukraines defense. Economic collapse driven by sanctions is not immediate but a long-term effect, there are months-years of signs such as inflation before it comes crashing down.
It's normal for a war economy to "grow". When a government is buying all the tanks, guns and bullets it can, that's absolutely amazing for the economy as a whole. Government spending increases generally drive growth (never mind that this just drives debt up and can send your country into a spiral)
Inflation, usually as a result from the former, also makes numbers go up. And if you ~~intentionally undercount~~ accidentally underestimate inflation, it goes up even more! You can always increase interest to keep up (if you dont have massive debt from the former).
You reduce exports of cheap raw materials and start using them yourself to make expensive war materials that look great on your books (but which don't actually make your country any money, unlike the raw materials).
Getting more soldiers is great for employment numbers, and industry will also need more people. Governments competing with industry drives wages up (and government reserves down).
War generally requires new infrastructure, which is great for countries that have neglected it for decades (unfortunately getting bombed tends to make said improvements rather short term, and only to places nobody wants to go).
So as long as you're not collapsing under debt (and if you can steal from private citizens, you can keep going for a bit) and your civilian industry hasn't quite collapsed yet (Russians excel at suffering) and you haven't undergone population collapse (15 and 70 make for great soldiers, right?) your economy looks great to anyone not looking too closely.