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UN reports warn that resettling thousands of hardened fighters in Syria could transform it into a hub for exporting terror. With Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s rise to power in Damascus after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, developments in Syria are raising fears of attempts to normalize extremist groups with a long history of terrorism and jihadi ideology.

Accepting these groups as legitimate rulers—without holding them accountable for their terrorist past—could open the door for other terrorist organizations to pursue control of the region, posing a serious threat to Middle East stability.

From Saydnaya to the Legitimization of Extremists

The Saydnaya prison, near the Syrian capital, has been transformed into a media symbol justifying Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s ascent. Led by figures like Ahmad al-Shar’ (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), a former senior Al-Qaeda commander, the group portrays Saydnaya as a site of Sunni suffering to lend moral legitimacy to organizations with documented terrorist histories. Syrian journalist Sarkis Qassarjian argues that “depicting Saydnaya as Sunni persecution aims to provide an ethical veneer for groups whose extremist ideology and violent actions are well-documented.”

The Impossibility of a Civilian Turnaround

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which evolved from Al-Nusra Front (Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria), casts doubt on its ability to transform into a moderate, civilian governing body. Political analyst Abdul Razzaq al-Mahdi observes, “Groups raised on jihad and violence cannot easily become civilian political forces, as their ideology is deeply rooted in extremism.” A report by the “Mustaqbal” (Future) Center supports this view, noting that “superficial changes in HTS’s rhetoric—such as toning down religious discourse—are tactical adaptations, not fundamental transformations.”

Having carried out terrorist operations and attracted thousands of foreign fighters, these groups cannot shed their jihadi principles without incurring tremendous risk. A United Nations report reveals that over 16,000 foreign fighters joined extremist organizations in Syria and Iraq, making their reintegration into a civilian governance system virtually impossible.

Appetites for Terror

Accepting Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a legitimate authority without prosecuting its leaders for past crimes sends a dangerous message to other terrorist groups in the region. Ahmad al-Shar’, once linked to the 9/11 attacks, is now head of a de facto government in Syria. If the world accepts his leadership despite his record, why wouldn’t other extremist organizations attempt regime overthrow and power seizure by similar means?

Writer Hassan Tahiri warns that “normalizing extremist groups encourages a new generation of terrorists who see violence as a pathway to power.” A report by the Washington Institute adds, “Failure to hold leaders like al-Shar’ accountable erodes justice and reinforces impunity, opening the door to regional chaos.”

The Role of Sponsor States

Regional powers such as Qatar—which has financed Islamist factions—and Turkey—the official backer of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—play significant roles in bolstering the new extremist governance. They seek to rebrand these groups and figures like al-Shar’ through moderated rhetoric and a more palatable image. Yet recent atrocities—in March 2025, thousands of Alawites were reportedly killed in their own areas by extremist factions now ruling Syria—underscore the impossibility of producing genuine reform despite HTS’s attempts at rhetorical change. A BBC report suggests this support is driven by geopolitical interests, like filling Syria’s political vacuum, rather than genuine belief in HTS’s transformation.

Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges

Under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Syria confronts immense challenges, including managing sectarian and factional diversity. The Future Center warns that “fundamentalist groups, which fragmented into over 1,000 factions in Iraq, could become ticking time bombs in Syria.” Al-Shar’’s plans to form a national army or convene a national dialogue also face criticism for lacking popular legitimacy, according to the Washington Institute.

Regional Threat Scenario

Continued normalization of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham could lead to catastrophic outcomes by emboldening and expanding extremist ambitions. HTS’s success might inspire other groups to pursue power through violence, threatening an already unstable region. Moreover, the group’s failure to rein in hardened militant factions risks triggering new civil wars within Syria. The UN and BBC reports warn that resettling thousands of hardened fighters in Syria could transform it into a hub for exporting terror.

In sum, normalizing extremist groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—without accountability for their terrorist history—poses a grave danger to the Middle East’s future. Ahmad al-Shar’s shift from Al-Qaeda commander to political leader sends a perilous signal that violence can be a path to power, undermining justice and encouraging regional disorder.