this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2025
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Seems like USA is going to fade to irrelevancy, and Trump is speedrunning that game. Even if a sane politician gets elected next time, the damage has already been done. The rest of the world is already moving along without America.
I think Trump had envisaged allies increasing defense funding and using it to buy weapons from him. I think the reality is that European defense contractors are about to expand significantly. While there may be an initial reliance on purchasing military equipment from America, the situation demands western allies reduce their reliance on it. It would be good for the defence industry in e.g. The UK and France if the increased spending bolsters their own economies. It's not like there haven't been large projects shared between European partners before. The eurofighter typhoon, the upcoming tempest or the FCAS project mean that Europe would not need to buy F35s or whatever is being offered by America in the future. The increase in funding may accelerate these projects bringing them to service much sooner. That is just aircraft. There are plenty of other areas that European defence contractors can and do collaborate.
The propaganda that American technology is the best, is a bit of an illusion based on the friendships and collaborations with other partners. We don't need America to have the best weapons. It was just always convenient to have them as a partner and friend who was willing to contribute so heavily. It was perhaps unfair that everyone allowed the US to be the backup but I think that particular aspect of their standing on the world stage is going to change significantly. I don't think America will become irrelevant, but they will very likely lose a lot of their influence. In the past the US may have been able to force through their agenda with the UN but in future I think that will not be so easy for them. With a big shift away from American products and services which I think is under way, alternatives will become available that challenge their dominance and this will ultimately harm their economy. When their economy is less productive, investors move elsewhere which amplifies the effect. It will take an enormously charismatic president to repair the goodwill and as yet the American public does not seem to favour candidates or that mould. They are more interested in short term stock market gains than long term economic stability.
Thank you for this analysis.