Toronto Maple Leafs

We tend to talk a lot about trade possibilities for the Toronto Maple Leafs (at centre and on defence) in these parts. Less so on what exactly they have to trade.

That’s the goal of our project here.

We’re looking only at assets the Leafs could conceivably move ahead of the March 7 trade deadline, not the ones we know aren’t going anywhere. We’ve bunched them into five tiers — from the assets that figure to have the most value (tier 1) to those with the least (tier 5).

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And we're baaaaaaaaaaaack!!! Let's gooooooo!

The Maple Leafs return from the 4 Nations break looking to halt a run of five straight losses to the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at Scotiabank Arena (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).

The Leafs‘ losing streak to the Hurricanes has a clear throughline: special teams. Toronto has outscored the Carolina 12-9 at five-on-five during this 0-4-1 stretch dating back to March 2023, but they’re 1-for-16 on the power play with a shorthanded goal against (i.e., net-zero on the man advantage) against the vaunted Canes PK, and just 11-for-17 on the penalty kill. Save for the last matchup in Carolina — when the Leafs built an early 2-0 lead and then fell apart — it’s resulted in the Leafs playing a lot of catch-up hockey, as they have been out-scored 7-2 in the first periods of those five games. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies -- Auston Matthews -- Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann -- John Tavares -- William Nylander
Max Domi -- Pontus Holmberg -- Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz -- David Kampf -- Alex Steeves

Morgan Rielly -- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe-- Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit -- Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz
Joseph Woll

Scratched: Phillippe Myers, Ryan Reaves

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Max Pacioretty (tightness), Connor Dewar (upper body)

Status report: Jost is expected to return for the first time since sustaining a lower-body injury Dec. 31. ... Pacioretty, a forward, is not expected to play after missing practice Friday. ... Dewar practiced in full on Friday but the forward will miss his eighth straight game; Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said Dewar could be available at the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday.

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ relative lack of goal scoring has been a story all season, but William Nylander hasn’t encountered any of the issues that are plaguing some of his teammates.

While it’s no surprise to see a guy coming off consecutive 40-goal seasons fill the back of the net, Nylander has never ranked higher than 14th in the NHL in goals scored. So he wasn’t expected to be in the Rocket Richard Trophy race at the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Even if Leon Draisaitl (who has 40 goals) isn’t losing sleep just yet, Nylander ranks second in the NHL in goals (33) and he’s on pace for 49 — a significant jump from his career high.

It’s an unusual development for a player deep into his prime at age 28, whose role on his team has not expanded in a notable way. Nylander is seeing nearly exactly the same amount of ice this season, playing just six fewer seconds a game than he did last season (19:49 vs. 19:55), and he’s being put in a similar position to score, spending most of his time on a line with John Tavares and skating more than 70 percent of his team’s power-play minutes.

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With the 4 Nations Face-Off obviously drawing most of the attention right now, I thought it would be a good time to take a step back and answer some of your burning Toronto Maple Leafs questions this week.

More than 200 came in just before the break started, and there’s a lot of good stuff there. Enough to fill a book. So we’ll start here with the first round and hopefully we’ll have time to get to some more in the near future. Thanks to everyone for the great mailbag fodder.

Let’s dive in.

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After swapping one maple leaf for another and sharing a dressing room with his boyhood hero, Mitch Marner figured he’d packed more than enough pinch-me moments into these first few days with Team Canada.

Then Sidney Crosby found him on a reload in overtime and put the puck on his stick as he gathered speed through the neutral zone, and that set the stage for a moment that was literally years in the making for the 27-year-old winger.

Marner secured a massive 4 Nations opening victory for Canada on Wednesday when he stared down Erik Karlsson and neatly tucked a shot over Filip Gustavsson’s blocker. That froze the clock at 6:06 and sent the Bell Centre into a frenzy. But it also brought a seldom-seen level of emotion out of an all-world player who has perhaps endured the worst of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ repeated playoff defeats over the years.

“I mean, you tell 8- or 10-year-old Mitch that he’s scoring an overtime goal assisted by Sidney Crosby, a guy he looked up to since Day 1, yeah, it’s pretty crazy,” said Marner, his voice growing hoarse after the 4-3 victory. “And I’m sure my family’s gonna be very excited about that one, and it’s gonna be a really cool thing to have now.”

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The 4 Nations Face-Off begins Wednesday, which leads us to an obvious question: How does this affect the Maple Leafs?

All kidding aside, if you’re a Leafs fan following the NHL/NHLPA-run tournament featuring Canada, the United States, Sweden and Finland, there’s no shortage of intrigue.

With many nations excluded from competition, the Leafs are one of the few NHL teams sending their three best players (Auston Matthews, USA; Mitch Marner, Canada; and William Nylander, Sweden) to the tournament.

Leafs fans will certainly have a lot to watch through the eight-day tournament, with at least one Leaf playing in each game on the schedule.

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It appears that the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t be making any lineup changes ahead of Saturday’s game against the Vancouver Canucks, with their starting goalie to be determined.

Anthony Stolarz was excellent in his first start since December 12, leading the Maple Leafs to a 3-1 win over the Seattle Kraken on Thursday. Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube has not stated if Stolarz or Joseph Woll will start against the Canucks, but either option provides Toronto with a bonafide chance of extending its three-game winning streak. Woll has operated as a true No. 1 in Stolarz’s absence, with a 19-10-0 record and .909 save percentage, while Stolarz has posted a 10-5-2 record in 18 appearances, sporting a league-best .929 save percentage. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Max Domi
William Nylander — John Tavares — Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann — Pontus Holmberg — Nicholas Robertson
Max Pacioretty — David Kampf — Steven Lorentz

Jake McCabe — Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly — Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit — Philippe Myers

Joseph Woll
Anthony Stolarz

Scratched: Conor Timmins, Dakota Mermis, Ryan Reaves

Injured: Calle Jarnkrok (hernia), Jani Hakanpaa (lower body)

Status report: Neither team will hold a morning skate, but the Maple Leafs did practice on Friday in Vancouver.

Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz will make his long-awaited return to the lineup against the Seattle Kraken on Thursday.

Stolarz has been out of the lineup since December 12, when he suffered a lower-body injury against the Anaheim Ducks. He was later placed on injured reserve after undergoing a procedure to remove a ‘loose pebble’ in his knee which was revealed to have no structural damage. source

Projected Lineup:

Knies - Matthews - Domi
Pacioretty - Tavares - Nylander
McMann - Holmberg - Robertson
Lorentz - Kampf - Reaves

McCabe - Tanev
Rielly - Ekman - Lwarsson
Benoit - Timmins

Stolarz*
Woll

*I changed that

After an entertaining win in Edmonton, the Maple Leafs are looking to start a streak through Western Canada but might need to do it without Mitch Marner tonight in Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST, TSN4/Sportsnet West). source

Projected lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Max Domi
Max Pacioretty — John Tavares — William Nylander
Bobby McMann — Pontus Holmberg — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Ryan Reaves

Jake McCabe — Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly — Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit — Conor Timmins

Joseph Woll
Matt Murray

Scratched: Nikita Grebenkin, Philippe Myers, Dakota Mermis

Injured: Mitch Marner (undisclosed), Calle Jarnkrok (hernia), Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body)

Status report: Marner will be a game-time decision; the forward did not participate in the Maple Leafs morning skate after missing practice Monday because of maintenance. … Domi is expected to skate on the top line if Marner cannot play. …Ekman-Larsson also will be a game-time decision after leaving a 4-3 win at the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday because of a lower-body injury.

The NHL’s salary-cap figures are in, not just for next season, but also the next three years. And they’re going to make quite an impact across the league.

Next season, the cap will jump 8.5 percent to $95.5 million, followed by an 8.9 percent increase in 2026-27 and an even bigger 9.1 percent increase in 2027-28.

As you can see below, those are incredibly dramatic year-over-year changes for this sport, especially considering the cap rose only 5 percent combined over the five seasons before this one.

. . .

So, this is good news for teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, right?

In some ways, for sure. In others, not as much.

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The Maple Leafs are back to full(ish) health for one of the most anticipated HNIC matchups of the regular season tonight in Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).

With the expected return of John Tavares and Matthew Knies, the Leafs will have their full complement of talent available to them besides goaltender Anthony Stolarz — who should be back this week — and two players who haven’t played much/any of a role this season in Jani Hakanpaa and Calle Jarnkrok. The Oilers are also reasonably close to full health, albeit with some day-to-day situations due to illness. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies -- Auston Matthews -- Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty -- John Tavares -- William Nylander
Bobby McMann -- Max Domi -- Nicholas Robertson
Pontus Holmberg -- David Kampf -- Steven Lorentz

Jake McCabe -- Chris Tanev
Morgan Reilly -- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit -- Conor Timmins

*Joseph Woll Matt Murray

Scratched: Nikita Grebenkin, Fraser Minten, Philippe Myers, Ryan Reaves

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (hernia), Anthony Stolarz (lower body)

I wish him all the second best. 😂

After 51 games, it's safe to say we have a good handle on what the Leafs are and what their needs are. Even after this slide, they have the eighth-best record in the league, and the playoffs are close to a lock. The Atlantic Division is as weak as it's been in years, and despite its inconsistency, Toronto still has as good of a chance at winning it for the first time as anyone.

. . .

You layer on top the team's scoring issues, and it feels like the best-case scenario for the trade deadline would be fulfilling a three-part shopping list:

No. 1: A 3C who can add offence
No. 2: A right-shot defenceman to help Rielly
No. 3: More secondary scoring

. . .

The bigger problem is those first two holes feel incredibly difficult for Toronto to fill. The deadline is shaping up to be a seller's market in a big way, with few teams throwing in the towel on the playoff chase and hardly any marquee names to serve as quality rentals.

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Looking to end their two-game losing slide, the Maple Leafs host a Minnesota Wild team that is without Kirill Kaprizov but is the league’s best road team this season with an 18-5-3 record away from home (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet).

In the first meeting of the two-game season series in Minnesota on November 3rd, the Leafs lost a low-event game by a score of 2-1 in overtime while getting outshot in all three periods at even strength (33.72% xGF, 36.7% CF). It was a back-to-back situation for Toronto — and it was the game before Matthews left the lineup for nine games due to injury — but in the Auston Matthews vs. Joel Eriksson-Ek matchup, the Wild owned 92% of the shot attempts (12-1) and 100% of the shots on goal (5-0) at five-on-five. source

Projected Lineup:

Bobby McMann — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Max Domi — Pontus Holmberg — William Nylander
Max Pacioretty — Fraser Minten — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly — Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Phillippe Myers

Joseph Woll
Matt Murray

Scratched: Jacob Quillan, Nikita Grebenkin, Conor Timmins

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), John Tavares (lower body), Connor Dewar (upper body), Matthew Knies (upper body)

Status report: Pacioretty, who missed three games, will return after taking a puck to the head in a 7-3 win at the Montreal Canadiens on Jan. 18.

The Maple Leafs are looking to avenge November’s lifeless loss to the Senators in Toronto when they visit the nation’s capital for the second game of the Leafs vs. Sens season series (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).

Bobby McMann-William Nylander has been a productive duo for the Leafs this season, outscoring the opposition 10-4 at five-on-five, but with Matthew Knies out for tonight, Craig Berube has opted to start McMann on the Matthews-Marner line. source

Projected Lineup:

Bobby McMann — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Max Domi — Pontus Holmberg — William Nylander
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Nicholas Robertson
Jacob Quillan — Fraser Minten — Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly — Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Phillipe Myers

Joseph Woll
Matt Murray

Scratched: Nikita Grebenkin, Conor Timmins

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), John Tavares (lower body), Max Pacioretty (upper body), Connor Dewar (upper body), Matthew Knies (upper body)

Status report: Quillan will make his NHL debut. … The Maple Leafs held an optional morning skate Saturday. … Pacioretty, a forward who will miss his third straight game, skated Saturday and is expected to participate fully in practice next week, coach Craig Berube said. … Stolarz, a goalie who will miss his 21st consecutive game, is on the trip and took the optional skate. … Grebenkin, a forward, was recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League. … Dewar, a center, was placed on injured reserve retroactive to Jan. 20; there is no timeline for his return, Berube said.

Joseph Woll is proving capable of being an NHL starter. With the continued demands to win games and stay atop the Atlantic Division, Berube and the Leafs had been turning to Hildeby without regularity. It all proved to be a damaging situation for the 2022 fourth-round draft pick.

“Listen, he is developing up here, getting practice time and working with NHL shooters and our goalie coach,” Berube said. “But I get what you’re saying. (In an) ideal situation, he is playing more games down in the minors. But that is not the situation right now.”

The Leafs had to change their situation.

Not only did they do that, they made an effective change by bringing Matt Murray back to the NHL and assigning Hildeby to the AHL. Murray likely will back up Woll in the Leafs’ next game on Saturday night against the Ottawa Senators.

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Dennis Hidelby starts in goal as the Maple Leafs seek their fourth consecutive win when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet).

The Leafs have lost three of the last four to Columbus (two in overtime) and conceded six goals in each loss, including their worst loss of the 2024-25 season back on October 22. The Leafs were 5-0 down just past the midway point of the second period in that game, en route to a 6-2 defeat. source

Projected lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann — Pontus Holmberg — William Nylander
Max Domi — Fraser Minten — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly — Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Conor Timmins

Dennis Hildeby
Joseph Woll

Scratched: Phillippe Myers, Jacob Quillan

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), John Tavares (lower body), Max Pacioretty (upper body), Connor Dewar (upper body)

Status report: Dewar is day to day after the forward was injured during a 5-3 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday. … Pacioretty was placed on injured reserve retroactive to Jan. 18; Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said the forward is “probably a little longer” than day to day. … Quillan, a forward, was recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League on Wednesday.

The Maple Leafs hope to make it 3-0-0 in the 2024-25 season series against the Lightning tonight at Scotiabank Arena (7:30 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime).

Three of Toronto’s forward lines and all three defense pairings will look different than they did to start the game in Montreal. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann — Pontus Holmberg — William Nylander
Max Domi — Fraser Minten — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Connor Dewar

Morgan Rielly — Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Conor Timmins

Joseph Woll
Dennis Hildeby

Scratched: Ryan Reaves, Philippe Myers

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), John Tavares (lower body), Max Pacioretty (upper body)

Status report: Pacioretty, a forward, is day to day after getting injured during a 7-3 win against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday. Minten, who had been a healthy scratch the past two games since being recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League, will replace Pacioretty. … Benoit will return after being scratched the previous two games.

Enjoy your weekend, everybody!

😂😭

The Maple Leafs are looking to build on one of their best efforts of the season when they visit the Bell Centre for an HNIC matchup against the surging Montreal Canadiens (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).

The parity-filled NHL’s 82-game regular season is as much about when you catch a team on the schedule as who you’re playing, and the Leafs are catching Montreal at a very high point. The Canadiens have beaten Florida, Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Washington, and Dallas during their recent 11-2-1 run that has propelled them back into the playoff race; they’re currently tied with Ottawa in points percentage for the second wildcard spot. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann — Max Domi — William Nylander
Max Pacioretty — Pontus Holmberg — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly — Phillippe Myers
Jake McNabb — Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Conor Timmins

Joseph Woll
Dennis Hildeby

Scratched: Simon Benoit, Fraser Minten, Connor Dewar

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), John Tavares (lower body)

Status report: Reaves will return to the lineup after he was scratched for a 4-3 overtime win against the New Jersey Devils on Thursday. … Dewar, a forward, will be a healthy scratch.

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New Jersey Devils on Thursday, Jan. 16, at 7 p.m. EST. Toronto is on a three-game losing streak as the Maple Leafs have been changing their lineup. source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty — Max Domi — William Nylander
Bobby McMann — Pontus Holmberg — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Connor Dewar

Morgan Rielly — Phillippe Myers
Jake McCabe — Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Conor Timmins

Joseph Woll
Dennis Hildeby

Scratched: Ryan Reaves, Fraser Minten, Simon Benoit

Status report: Tavares, a center, is week to week and was placed on injured reserve after taking an awkward fall during practice Wednesday. … McCabe will return after missing four games with an upper-body injury. … Minten, a forward, was recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League on Thursday. … Stolarz skated prior to the Maple Leafs optional morning skate Thursday; the goalie has not played since Dec. 12.

Ahead of Tuesday’s game against the Dallas Stars, the Toronto Maple Leafs held an optional morning skate, with several regulars taking the morning off.

Steven Lorentz — who has been promoted to the first line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner — Max Pacioretty, Connor Dewar, David Kampf, Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies were among the forwards in attendance, while Simon Benoit, Philippe Myers, Marshall Rifai and Conor Timmins joined the skate as well.

Dennis Hildeby was in attendance, while Joseph Woll is expected to start against the Stars. Woll took accountability for the 6-3 loss against the Carolina Hurricanes, and while his teammates appreciated the accountability, they didn’t pin Thursday’s defeat on their goalie. source

Projected Lineup:

Steven Lorentz — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies — John Tavares — William Nylander
Bobby McMann — Max Domi — Nicholas Robertson
Connor Dewar — David Kampf — Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly — Phillippe Myers
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Conor Timmins

Joseph Woll
Dennis Hildeby

Scratched: Pontus Holmberg, Marshal Rifai, Max Pacioretty

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), Jake McCabe (upper body)

Status report: Reaves will play after being a healthy scratch the past two games. … McCabe participated in the Maple Leafs optional morning skate Tuesday, but the defenseman will miss his fourth straight game.

After their five-game winning streak was snapped in Carolina (and the top line drowned in minuses), the Maple Leafs are looking for a response effort against a tired Canucks team mired in on- and off-ice turmoil (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC). source

Projected Lineup:

Matthew Knies — Auston Matthews — Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty — John Tavares — William Nylander
Bobby McMann — Max Domi — Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz — David Kampf — Connor Dewar

Morgan Rielly — Phillippe Myers
Oliver Ekman-Larsson — Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit — Conor Timmins

Dennis Hildeby
Joseph Woll

Scratched: Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg, Marshal Rifai

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (lower body), Jake McCabe (upper body)

Status report: Pacioretty will return after being a healthy scratch in a 6-3 loss at the Hurricanes on Thursday. … McCabe skated on his own prior to the Maple Leafs morning skate Saturday; coach Craig Berube said there is no timeline for the return of the defenseman, who will miss his third straight game, but that he “feels good and he’s doing well.” … Stolarz, a goalie, is expected to resume skating next week.

Forty-two games of Craig Berube hockey have led to this: The Leafs have the sixth-best record in the league, on pace for 109 points, which would be good for second in what’s looking like a shallower Eastern Conference.

. . .

What’s changed is the Leafs are no longer a possession team (24th in the league). They often get outshot (20th). Their goalies steal them games (3rd in save percentage). They allow scoring chances regularly (19th in expected goals against at even strength) but limit high-danger opportunities better than other clubs (12th).

They win more games with their penalty kill (7th) than their power play (18th). They’re no longer an offensive juggernaut (12th). But they hit (5th), block shots (6th), win faceoffs (4th), win when they score first (1st) and win in close games (3rd).

. . .

If you’re a regular listener to our podcast, you’ve heard Jonas and I kick this subject back and forth all year: Can the Leafs keep winning this way — losing the possession battle, relying heavily on goaltending, and having a harder time scoring than we’re used to seeing given their talent level?

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