Thats actually a really good dilemma if you think about it. Like if everyone doubles it you basically don’t kill anyone. But you’ll always risk that there’s some psycho who likes killing and then you will have killed more. And if these choices continue endlessly you will eventually find someone like this. So killing immediately should be the right thing to do.
At some people you will run out of people to tie to the tracks.
Some day it reaches a person that thinks...
Well, 4 billion people less is better than someone being able to wipe out humanity...
(it would also solve many problems lol)
(and that point would be after 32 people had the choice...)
Thanos waiting patiently in line 💀
This is really the only answer. The only thing that makes it "hard" is having to face the brutality of moral calculus
Now, what if you’re not the first person on the chain? What if you’re the second one. Or the n one? What now? Would you kill two or n knowing that the person before you spared them?
The thing to do is kill now even if it's thousands. Because it's only going to get worse.
The best time to kill was the first trolly. The second best time to kill is now.
Yes, but it also kinda depends on what happens at and after junction 34, from which point on more than the entire population of earth is at stake.
If anything, this shows how ludicrously fast exponentials grow. At the start of the line it seems like there will be so many decisions to be made down the line, so there must be a psycho in there somewhere, right? But (assuming the game just ends after junction 34) you're actually just one of 34 people, and the chance of getting a psycho are virtually 0.
Very interesting one!
You gotta double it until it overflows to negatives, then you end up reviving billions of people!
Then you end up killing more because of massive famine 💀
And so you end up driving up food and housing demand, with no guarantee that the revived population can provide to the supply side. :P
Continuously double it so that the trolley has as much room as it needs to brake to a complete halt, therefore killing 0 people.
The real questions are, "Who is fueling and piloting the trolly, and can we kill them?"
Math-wise, it won't take long until they are tied to the track with us and everyone else.
Jesus took the wheel
But it only takes 1 idiot to ruin the whole thing.
What if I want to be the person down the line?
If I must kill 1 person or cause even more death, I suppose I'd kill the person responsible for this scenario.
Successfully explained climate change
Loop continues until entire human population tied to track and there's nobody left to pass the switch to. kill the scapegoat on round one and done
Welcome to climate policy.
That implies that if nobody tries to stop climate change, it'll never destroy the world.
You would need a crazy low probability of a lunatic or a mass murderer being down the line to justify not to kill one person
Edit: Sum(2^n (1-p)^(n-1) p) ~ Sum(2^n p) for p small. So you'd need a p= (2×2^32 -2) ~ 1/(8 billion) chance of catching a psycho for expected values to be equal. I.e. there is only a single person tops who would decide to kill all on earth.
Well what about the fact that after 34 people the entire population is tied to the tracks. What are the chances that one person out of 35 wants to destroy humanity?
Also thing the entire human population to the tracks is going to cause some major logistical problems, how are you going to feed them all?
Oh come on. A trolley is not going to have the momentum to kill that many people nor would the machinery make it through. The gears and whatnot would be totally gummed up after like 20 or so people.
I just calculated the sum from n=0 to 32 (because 2^33>current global population). And that calculation implies that the chance of catching someone willing to kill all of humanity would have to be lower than 1/8 billion for the expected value of doubling it to be larger than just killing one person.
You don't even need a lunatic or mass murderer. As you say, the logical choice is to kill one person. For the next person, the logical choice is to kill two people, and so on.
It does create the funny paradox where, up to a certain point, a rational utilitarian would choose to kill and a rational mass murderer trying to maximise deaths would choose to double it.
Gotta find the person tying everyone to these tracks and take them out
Seems like exactly what politicians are doing. Pass the problems along to the next one.
I was gonna just do the one but they do say it's best to pay it forward when you can.
I say let it go for 33 doublings (2^33 people), and then decide.
Throw the switch to pass and then sprint ahead 31 spots so I can kill 4 billion people like Thanos.
People always miss the bigger picture with these things. Why do these trolleys' brakes keep failing? Is it a design flaw in the braking system? Is the maintenance crew severely underfunded? Is it a slippage problem due to improper rail maintenance? It's a shame we can't even organize a work stoppage to sort this out since congress blocked the trolley union from striking...
Double it. Then the other guy will double it, and so on. Infinite loop = no deaths.
And then there's some psycho on round 34 who kills all 8 billion people alive on earth.
Right is the boomer way.
Also interesting: What would you choose here if you were an evil psychopath? (Asking for an acquaintance.)
Switch the track from the bottom to the top as the train is half way over the switch, causing the train to drift across both rails hitting all three tied up people and the second switch operator.
Lever half way and it crashes.
Attempting to subvert the thought experiment only makes things worse. The trolley is full of child prodigies, all future geniuses that will cure cancer and solve the world's problems. By sticking the lever halfway you kill all of them. The only way to save the child prodigies is to choose, left or right.
Kill 1 person. I feel it would be cowardly to pass the buck and risk killing 2.